Polling and Public Opinion Measuring Citizens’ Opinions, Attitudes and Beliefs This presentation is the property of Dr. Kevin Parsneau for use by him and his current students. No other person may use or reprint without his permission.

Polling and Measuring Public Opinion How do we measure public opinion? What is the difference between scientific polls and unscientific polls? When and how can you trust polls? What should the role of polls be in a democracy?

Polling’s role in democracy Democratic forms of government assume that public opinion affects government policies. Public officials seek to know public opinion because there is a presumed cost to ignoring it. The media and people interested in politics are interested in citizens’ attitudes and beliefs.

Polling’s role in democracy And yet…. We do not want policies that follow public opinion too closely, …and we say we want politicians who do not just do whatever is popular.

What do polls do? Polls attempt to measure public opinion by gathering information about a sample of people and making inferences about a larger population of people.

Elements of a Poll Population—the people whose opinion you want to draw conclusions about. Sample—the people you contact and who respond to the poll.

Brief History of Polling Local opinion leaders Straw Polls Literary Digest Magazine George Gallup and Scientific Polling

Straw Polls The earliest types of polls to measure public opinion were straw polls. Straw polls– polls that measure opinion by voluntary response Whoever decides to answer the poll is part of the sample and their opinions are taken as indicative of the population as a whole.

Straw Polls Straw polls have an inherent sampling bias– in other words the sample is not representative of the population– the two are dissimilar in systematic ways – People who choose to respond to straw polls may have stronger opinions and thus are more motivated to respond – The straw poll may simple not reach a group of people who are representative of the population.

Elements of a Poll Population and Sample – Population—the people whose opinion you want to draw conclusions about – Sample—the people you contact and respond to your poll. Scientific pollsters want a sample that is as similar to the population as possible.

Scientific Polling One of the simplest ways to draw an unbiased sample as close to the population of inference as possible is to use a simple random sample (SRS). Simple Random Sample: a technique where each member of the population has an equal probability of becoming part of the sample. Straw Polls are not SRS because each person is not equally as likely to be surveyed.

Elements of a Poll Sample Size and Accuracy – Margin of Error (+/-) – Larger samples reduce the margin of error because there is less chance of a few unrepresentative responses altering the overall results. – Larger samples are more expensive

Elements of a Poll Survey instrument Questions asked the respondents Professional pollsters try to ask questions that will not lead or confuse respondents

Questions Leading questions: – How important is the issue of increasing levels of violent crime? (1 = not at all, 5 = the most important issue) Double-barreled Questions: – Do you think the economy is improving and we should re-elect Governor Dayton? (yes or no)

When and how far can you trust polls? Source Push Polls Blurry Snapshots Non-attitudes

University of Maryland Study

Pros and Cons of Polling Good – Snapshot of people’s desires – Direct democracy – Clear misperceptions – Information to policymakers – Responsiveness

Pros and Cons of Polling Bad – Bandwagon effect – Inaccurate/ Short term – False sense of influence – Too democratic – Overemphasis on majority opinion – Horse race coverage – Pandering

Some thoughts Public opinion as the basis for democracy Not sure what it means… Informed people know how far to trust it – Scientific polling and trusted sources For better or worse... it's inextricably part of democracy