Population APES

Factors That Affect Human Population Size Crude birth rate: the number of live birth per 1,000 individuals in one year. Crude death rate: the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals in one year. The annual rate of population change in percentage is: CBR – CDR % change in population = 1,000 x 100%= %= World 2005=1.21% Europe 2005= -.7% Developing = 1.8% In USA, this number does not include immigration 14-8 X100% = .6% 1000

US and world population growth rate U.S. population growth rate in 1965 was 2%, now in 2009 it is .9% (including migration) The U.S. is the third most populous country in the world. 306 million World population 6.8 billion Doubling time = rule of 70 : 70 divided by the population growth rate equals the doubling time in years _70_ .97 In the world there are 2.5 babies born for every one heart beat = 72 years

Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World All developed countries All developing Developing (w/o China) 22 9 11 10 25 29 Fig. 11.2a, p. 239

Africa Latin America Asia Oceania United States North Europe 38 14 24 6 22 8 18 7 15 9 10 11 Fig. 11.2b, p. 239

Population Growth Rate Annual world population growth <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Fig. 11.3, p. 240

% population growth rate - worldwide 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Growth rate (percent) Year Fig. 11.4, p. 240

China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia Bangladesh Japan 1.26 billion 1.4 billion India 1 billion 1.4 billion USA 276 million 338 million Indonesia 212 million 273 million Brazil 170 million 221 million Pakistan 151 million 227 million Russia 145 million 137 million Bangladesh 128 million 177 million Japan 127 million 121 million Nigeria 123 million 205 million Fig. 11.5, p. 241 2000 2025

Asia 3.7 billion 4.7 billion Europe 728 million 714 million Africa Latin America 518 million 703 million North America 306 million 374 million Oceania 31 million 39 million Fig. 11.6, p. 241 2000 2025

Measuring Global Fertility Rate Replacement fertility rate: the number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves 2.1 for developed countries 2.5 for developing countries Even after lowering fertility rates to replacement level, it will take 50 – 60 years for the population to stabilize

Total fertility rate (TFR): an estimate of the number of children a women will have during her child bearing years. Worldwide TFR = in 2009 2.6 1.7 in developed countries, 3.85 in developing countries, can be a high as 6 in some countries like Africa. Europe TFR = 1.5 USA TFR = 2.1 Hispanic= 2.9 Asian = 1.9 Black = 2.2 White = 1.8 At a TFR of 2.9 with no limits to population growth, in 150 years there will be 296 billion people on this planet

World 5 children per women 2.9 Developed 2.5 countries 1.5 Developing 6.5 3.2 Africa 6.6 5.3 Latin America 5.9 2.8 Asia 5.9 2.8 Oceania 3.8 2.4 North America 3.5 2.0 Europe 2.6 1.4 Fig. 11.7, p. 241 1950 2000

Births per woman < 2 4-4.9 2-2.9 5+ Data not available 3-3.9 Fig. 11.8, p. 242

Population Estimates for 2050 12 11 High High 10.7 10 Medium Low 9 Medium 8.9 8 Population (billion) 7 6 Low 7.3 5 4 3 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Fig. 11.9, p. 242 Year

. Fertility In The U.S. 306+ million people in the U.S. Peak TFR was 3.7 in 1957 during the baby boom In 2009 growth rate was .97 %, 56% of this was babies being born and 44% was immigration. In 2000 there were 7.1 million babies born, 900,000 legal immigrants, 300,000 illegal immigrants By 2050 the U.S. population is expected to reach 439,000

. Fertility In The U.S. The 4 main reasons for such high growth in the U.S. 1. Large numbers of women from the baby boom are still in childbearing years. There has been a large increase in potential mothers in recent years, although TFR has remained stable. 2. High # of unmarried women bearing children 3. High TFR in certain ethnic groups 4. High levels of immigration Teen Pregnancy 15-19 Total per 1000 births World = 50 USA = 53 LDC = 112 MDC =24 Europe = 5.8 Japan = 3.5

California Fertility 1. most populous state in the nation 2. 34 million people, expected to rise to 39 million by 2020 3. Since 1985 the CA TFR rose from 1.9 to 2.5 because immigrants have high fertility. Increases in population size has caused wetland destruction, air pollution, more endangered species than any other continental state except for Texas.

TFR in the US 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Births per woman Fig. 11.10, p. 243

Births per thousand population 32 30 28 26 24 Births per thousand population 22 20 World War II 18 16 Demographic transition 14 Depression Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Fig. 11.11, p. 243

98% 100% 98% 99.6% 97% 98% 95% 95% 93% Highly Effective Extremely Effective Total abstinence IUD with slow-release hormones 98% 100% Sterilization IUD plus spermicide 99.6% 98% Hormonal implant (Norplant) Vaginal pouch (“female condom”) 98% 97% IUD 95% Condom (good brand) plus spermicide 95% Oral contraceptive 93% Fig. 11.12a, p. 244

89% 75% 86% 74% 74% 84% 70% 84% 83% 82% 40% 10% Effective Moderately Effective Cervical cap Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) 89% 75% Condom (good brand) Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) 86% 74% Diaphragm plus spermicide 84% Withdrawl 74% Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) Condom (cheap brand) 84% 70% Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide 83% Spermicide (foam) 82% Unreliable Douche 40% Chance (no method) 10% Fig. 11.12b, p. 244

Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate Developed Countries 50 40 Rate of natural increase 30 Rate per 1,000 people Crude birth rate 20 Crude death rate 10 Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate 1775 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year Fig. 11.13a, p. 245

Developing Countries 50 Crude birth rate 40 Rate of natural increase 30 Rate per 1,000 people Crude death rate 20 10 1775 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year Fig. 11.13b, p. 245

Factors that Influence Birth and Fertility Rates Average level of education and affluence (high education=low TFR) Importance of children as part of the labor force Urbanization (urbanization=lower fertility rates) Cost of raising and educating children Educational and employment opportunities for women Infant mortality rate (high infant mortality rate=high TFR) Average age at marriage (younger=more kids) Availability of pension plans (pension plan=less kids) Availability of legal abortions Availability of birth control Religious beliefs, traditions, norms Economic rewards and penalties for bearing children (Like China)

Factors that Influence Death Rates The rise in world population in the last 100 years is not a result of huge increases in CBR, but is due to decreases in CDR This is due to better food supplies, medicine, better sanitation, and safer water The two most useful indicators of overall health of a population: Life expectancy: Europe, 79 U.S., Average 76 developed, 52 developing infant mortality rates: # of babies out of every 1,000 born that die before the age of one (this is the single most important factor to measure a society’s overall quality of life) Infant Mortality Deaths per 1000 Live births Life Expectancy World = 66.5 USA = 77.9, Male = 75.2, Female = 80.6 USA = 6.9 Europe = 4.5 World = 57 LDC = 97 MDC = 7.7

<10 10-35 36-70 71-100 100+ Data not available Infant deaths per 1,000 live births <10 10-35 36-70 71-100 100+ Data not available Fig. 11.14, p. 246

Deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1920 Years Deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births Fig. 11.15, p. 246

Migration Voluntary – provides migrant labor Involuntary – 25 million environmental refugees Only 1% of annual population growth in developing countries is absorbed by developed countries Immigration in the U.S. 11-12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. 35 million legal 75%, 90% if illegal immigrants are counted, of them are in California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Texas, and Florida The U.S. wants to slow legal and illegal immigration to slow population growth

Number of legal immigrants (thousands) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 1820 1840 1880 1860 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 Year Number of legal immigrants (thousands) 1907 1914 New laws restrict immigration Great Depression Fig. 11.23, p. 250

Pros Often take jobs natives won’t do They increase the supply of available goods They boost economy by buying goods They pay taxes

Cons Work for lower wages and take jobs from Natives States bear the costs and the federal government collects all the taxes Laws to catch illegal immigrants do not work

Population Age Structure Age structure diagram: shows the proportion of the population at each age level prereproductive: 0-14 reproductive: 15-44 post-reproductive: 45+

The percentage of the population at each age level # of women of reproductive age (50% of world’s women) # of women under the age of 15 (29% of world, 42% of Africa, 32% developing, 17% developed) The more women under age of 15 the more momentum for growth Youthful age structures lead to high unemployment rates

Male Female Male Female Rapid Growth Slow Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+ Fig. 11.16a, p. 247

Male Female Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+ Fig. 11.16b, p. 247

Declining Population If the decline is slow a country can manage If decline is rapid, there is a larger number of older people putting strains on medical, social security, and public services, with less young people to pay for it. Also less young people mean smaller military.

AIDS Tragedy Between 2000 and 2005 aids will kill 278 million people (almost the size of the US) Kills young adults which support the young and the old. In some African countries as many as 39% of the population is affected. Analysts call for financial assistance and education to slow this down. Should we intervene?

Population (millions) 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female 300 200 100 100 200 300 Population (millions) Fig. 11.17a, p. 247

Population (millions) 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female 300 200 100 100 200 300 Population (millions) Fig. 11.17b, p. 247

Population (2000) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate 276 million United States (highly developed) 170 million 123 million Brazil (moderately developed) Population projected (2025) Nigeria (less developed) 338 million 221 million 205 million Infant mortality rate 7 38 77 Life expectancy 77 years 68 years 52 years Fertility rate (TFR) 2.1 2.4 6.0 %Population under age 15 21% 30% 44% % Population over age 65 13% 5% 3% Per capita GNP (1998) $29,240 $4,630 $300 Fig. 11.18, p. 248

Age structure can be used to predict population changes. For example: baby boomers create changes in population dynamics as they move through the age structure. They create competition for jobs, dominate demands for goods and services and have political control. As they age their needs become a burden to the baby bust generation (genration x). Echo-boom generation 1977-2000 largest generation ever

Age Age 1955 1985 Millions Millions Females Males Females Males 24 20 20 16 16 12 12 8 1955 8 1985 4 4 4 4 8 8 12 12 16 Millions Millions 16 20 20 24 Fig. 11.19a, p. 248

Age Age 1955 2035 Millions Millions Females Males Females Males 20 20 20 20 16 16 12 12 8 8 1955 4 2035 4 4 4 8 8 12 12 16 16 20 20 Millions 24 24 Millions Fig. 11.19b, p. 248

Reducing Births PROS better than raising death rate we already fail to provide basic necessities for one-fifth of the world over pop. Is the main reason for environmental degradation and resource over consumption technology is the key to economic power, not more people freedom to reproduce should only apply if it does not reduce the quality of other peoples lives CONS *people live longer *some people believe that the world can support millions more *people are our most valuable resource

Births and Economic Development 1. demographic transition = hypothesis of population change. As countries become more industrialized, first their death rates, then birth rates decline. This is done in 4 stages. a. preindustrial stage - harsh living conditions contribute to high birth rate & death rate (little population growth) b. transitional stage - industrialization begins, food production rises, health care improves, death rates drop, births remain high, and population grows. c. industrial stage - industrialization is widespread, birth rate drops & approaches death rate (due to birth control) decline in infant mortality, increased job opportunities for women, high cost of raising children. d. postindustrial stage - birth rates decline further = ZPG until the population growth rate decreases, shift to a sustainable form of economic development. (Most Western European countries are in this stage = 12% of the world’s population. 2. Some developing countries may have difficulty making the demographic transition because they lack capital and resources to move to stage 3 or 4.

Relative population size Birth rate and death rate Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low High Relative population size (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Birth rate Death rate Total population Low growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low growth rate Zero growth rate Negative growth rate Time Fig. 11.26, p. 255

Family Planning & Birth Reduction = provides educational and clinical services to help couples choose how many and when to have children. a. Family planning is responsible for a 40% drop in fertility rates in developing countries. b. helps to reduce the need for social services. c. may reduce legal and illegal abortions. d. coupled with prenatal care & health services, family planning can reduce the risk of childbearing. e. reduces the birth and fertility rates in populous countries such as China, Indonesia, Brazil, & Bangladesh. 1. there has been a 6-fold increase in the use of contraceptives in the last 2 decades for married women. 2. couples see fewer benefits of large families due to lack of available land, unstable farming conditions, extensive flooding & government supplied mass media messages. (U.S. has 1/5 of the abortions -242,000/yr)

Economic rewards & penalties for reduced births 1. payments for using contraceptives or sterilization (either to women or their doctors). 2. penalize couples for more than 1 or 2 children (raise their taxes, charge other fees, or eliminate income tax deductions for third child, loss of health care benefits, food allotment, job options.

Empowering Women 1. women with an education & a job outside the home have fewer children. 2. women work 2/3’s of all hours worked and receive 1/10 of the world’s income & own less than 2% of the world’s property. 3. In most developing countries, women don’t have the legal rights to own land or borrow $. 4. women make up 70% of the world’s poor & 2/3’s are illiterate.

Reducing population growth Help countries develop and implement national population policies UNPFA Provide universal access to family planning Reduce poverty Provide better healthcare and nutritious food supplements Provide universal education with emphasis on girls Improve the status of women Nutritious school lunch programs Increase the involvement of men in child rearing and family planning Sharply reduce unsustainable patterns of production and consumption

4:45 A.M. Wake, wash, and eat 5:00 A.M.- 5:30 A.M. Walk to fields 5:30 P.M.- 3:00 P.M. Work in fields 3:00 P.M.- 4:00 P.M. Collect firewood 4:00 P.M.- 5:30 P.M. Pound and grind corn 5:30 P.M.- 6:30 P.M. Collect water 6:30 P.M.- 8:30 P.M. Cook for family and eat 8:30 P.M.- 9:30 P.M. Wash dishes and children 9:30 P.M. Go to bed Fig. 11.28, p. 256

Number of workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary 40 1945 41.9 workers 30 20 Number of workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary 1950 16.5 10 2075 1.9 1945 2000 2050 2075 Fig. 11.20, p. 249

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 Year Age Distribution (%) Fig. 11.22, p. 249 Under age 15 Age 60 or over Age 80 or over

State of the World 1900 2000 2100 Year Industrial output Food Resources Population Pollution Fig. 11.24a, p. 251

Material Standard of Living 1900 2000 2100 Year Consumer goods per person Services per person Food per person Life expectancy Fig. 11.24b, p. 251

State of the World 1900 2000 2100 Year Industrial output Food Resources Population Pollution Fig. 11.25a, p. 254

Material Standard of Living 1900 2000 2100 Year Consumer goods per person Food per person Services Life expectancy Fig. 11.25b, p. 254

Condom 5% Male sterilization 5% Pill 8% Other No method methods 43% 10% No method 43% IUD 12% Female sterilization 17% Fig. 11.27, p. 255

India China Percentage of world 16% population 21% Population (2000) 1 billion 1.3 billion Population (2025) (estimated) 1.4 billion 1.4 billion Illiteracy (%of adults) 47% 17% Population under age 15(%) 36% 25% Population growth rate (%) 1.8% 0.9% Total fertility rate 3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 72 31 Life expectancy 61 years 71 years GNP per capita (1998) Fig. 11.29, p. 257 $440 $750