Assessing INDCs and their implications: Resources, tools, and analysis Louise Jeffery, on behalf of the PRIMAP team: 1 December 2015 Johannes Gütschow, Ryan Alexander, Robert Gieseke, Claire Fyson, Yann Robiou du Pont, David Stevens, and Ronja Gebel

INDCs - State of Play 156 INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC by 1 Dec 95% global emissions in 2010 (excl. LULUCF; 2% other countries, 3% bunkers) 97% global population Of these INDCs: 28 absolute reductions relative to a reference year 81 reduction below a BAU (63 provide a BAU in the INDC) 21 Intensity targets 34 measures and policies based Extensive coverage, but is the ambition sufficient? 2

INDC resources and tools 1) Climate Action Tracker 2) PRIMAP-live Scenario Explorer 3) INDC Factsheets 3

Climate Action Tracker 33 countries individually assessed, covering 80% of global emissions in 2010 Assessments include a quantification and rating of INDC targets as compared with a range of effort-sharing schemes CAT also assesses the sufficiency of current policies in meeting pledges and INDC targets Estimate the warming in 2100 consistent with current pledges, INDCs, and policies 4 climateactiontracker.org

Bhutan CAT - Individual country ratings not likely below 2°C

6 As of 1 October, CAT estimated that total emissions in 2030 would be GtCO 2 e The gap between INDC levels and 1.5°C or 2°C consistent pathways increases between 2025 and 2030 Aggregate emissions in 2030 fall short of what is needed to be on a robust track to 1.5 or 2°C in Current policies are not yet sufficient to meet the INDC emissions at the global level CAT – aggregate INDC analysis

CAT - global temperature analysis Median warming estimate for unconditional INDCs is 2.7°C Likely (>66%) below 3°C and 90% probability of exceeding 2°C

8 Exploring IAM Scenarios with PRIMAP-live

9 Provides an accessible interface to scenarios from integrated assessment models The user can explore for themselves questions such as: 1) What are the emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to below 2°C, or returning to 1.5°C by the end of the century?

10 What are the characteristics of emissions pathways with <2°C warming?

Provides and accessible interface to scenarios from integrated assessment modeling scenarios The user can explore for themselves questions such as: 1) What are the emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to below 2°C, or returning to 1.5°C by the end of the century? 2) What are the key features of these scenarios in terms of: -Timing of emissions peaks and full decarbonisation -Technologies available -Land-use emissions and sinks -…… 11 Exploring IAM Scenarios with PRIMAP-live

12 For a given model, what are the net land-use emissions? (MESSAGE scenarios only shown here)

13 INDC Factsheets Quantification of all INDCs submitted so far Information about: -What is the INDC? -What are projected emissions levels under the INDCs? -What are the implications for emissions per capita or emissions per GDP? -What is the current emissions profile in terms of gases and sectors? Accessible at:

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15 INDC – Quantification challenges No reference or projection provided Data uncertainty -Data in INDCs may conflict with data reported elsewhere -Particularly high uncertainties from agriculture and land–use sectors Incomplete coverage of sectors Accounting and coverage of land-use activities Intensity targets rely on GDP and / or population projections

16 pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/ climate-energy-college.net/indc-factsheets/ climateactiontracker.org

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CAT – calculating the temperature 1) Extending global emissions pathways to 2100 Aggregate national emissions to the level of the five AR5 regions Assume that mitigation effort will continue throughout 21 st century Construct long-term scenarios from the AR5 scenario database by keeping the quantile of the scenario within the distribution of AR5 pathways constant. Generate global emissions pathways by combining regional pathways and additionally including emissions from: International aviation and marine bunkers Deforestation 2) Use probabilistic MAGICC model (v6) to calculate warming from emissions pathways and associated climate and carbon-cycle uncertainties.

CAT – calculating the temperature Current Policies Pledges / INDCs, until 2030 only Pledges, including 2050 targets GtCO 2 e/yr