THE INDUS BASIN – AN OVERVIEW THE INDUS WATERS TREATY – 1960 26 AUGUST 2015

INDUS BASIN MAP Facts: Area 1.16 M km2 Runoff 211 BCM Rainfall 10 to 200 cm

FLOW AVAILABILITY OF INDUS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES River at Rim Station Average Annual Runoff in MAF (BCM) Indus at Kalabagh (incudes flow of Kabul River) 90 (111) Jhelum at Mangla 23 (28) Chenab at Marala 25 (31) Total Western Rivers 138 (170) Ravi at Madhopur 6 (8) Beas at Mandi Plain 13 (16) Sutlej at Rupar 14 (17) Total Eastern Rivers 33 (41) Total Indus Basin 171 (211)

INDUS BASIN DIVISION On 15 July 1947, the Indian Independence Act 1947 of the Parliament of the United Kingdom stipulated that British rule in India would come to an end just one month later, on 15 August 1947. The Act also stipulated the partition of the Provinces of British India into two new sovereign dominions: the Union of India and the Dominion of Pakistan. The western part of the Punjab became part of West Pakistan and the eastern part became the Indian state of East Punjab, which was later divided between a smaller Punjab State and two other states. The Punjab's population distribution was such that there was no line that could neatly divide Hindus, Muslims, and Sikhs. Likewise, no line could appease the Muslim League, headed by Jinnah, and the Indian National Congress led by Jawaharlal Nehru and Vallabhbhai Patel, and by the British. Moreover, any division based on religious communities was sure to entail "cutting through road and rail communications, irrigation schemes, electric power systems and even individual landholdings."[5] However, a well-drawn line could minimize the separation of farmers from their fields, and also minimize the numbers of people who might feel forced to relocate. Problems: (i) Boundary making process [lack of specialized knowledge, short time], (ii) Political representation [equal representation for providing a balance created in fact deadlock], (iii) Local knowledge [Radcliffe never visited India before his appointment], (iv) Haste and indifference [Radcliffe justified the casual division with the truism that no matter what he did, people would suffer.. By his own admission, Radcliffe was heavily influenced by his lack of fitness for the Indian climate and his eagerness to depart India], (v) Secrecy, (vi) Implementation

AGRICULTURAL AREAS IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN 1947 Now Irrigated Area on IBRS: 26 million acres 66 million acres In Pakistan 21 million acres 45 million acres In India: 05 million acres 21 million acres

WATER DISTRIBUTION AS PER THE IWT EASTERN RIVERS All the water of the Eastern Rivers is available for the unrestricted use of India 6

WATER DISTRIBUTION AS PER THE IWT WESTERN RIVERS (1) Pakistan shall receive for unrestricted use all waters of Western Rivers (2) India shall not interfere with the waters of Western Rivers except for following uses: (a) Domestic Use (b) Non-Consumptive use (c) Agricultural Use (limited) (d) Generation of Hydro-electric Power (e) Storage Works (limited) 7

FLOW ALLOCATIONS AS PER IWT Average Annual Runoff in MAF (BCM) River at Rim Station Average Annual Runoff in MAF (BCM) Indus at Kalabagh (incudes flow of Kabul River) 90 (111) Jhelum at Mangla 23 (28) Chenab at Marala 25 (31) Total Western Rivers 138 (170) Ravi at Madhopur 6 (8) Beas at Mandi Plain 13 (16) Sutlej at Rupar 14 (17) Total Eastern Rivers 33 (41) Total Indus Basin 171 (211)

INDUS BASIN - SCHEMATIC IRRIGATION SYSTEM OVERVIEW OF REPLACEMENT WORKS Link Canals (09 Nos.): Combined Capacity 3000 m3/s Combined Length 600 km Dams (Tarbela, Mangla & Chashma): Combined Capacity 14 MAF (17 BCM) Barrages (06 Nos.): On Eastern Rivers 02 Nos. On Western Rivers 04 Nos.

WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY MUHAMMAD AYUB KHAN WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY “But before I write of the negotiations with Eugene Black, I should like to describe the confrontation I had with our own technical experts and administrators. I sensed that they did not fully realize the gravity of the situation and were asking for the moon when we were in a position of weakness all along the line. They were also trying to dictate policy and were taking up extreme positions. Some thirty or forty of them were assembled in a Government House, Lahore, where I addressed them. I said: 10

WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY MUHAMMAD AYUB KHAN WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY Gentlemen, this problem is of far-reaching consequences to us. Let me tell you that every factor is against Pakistan. I am not saying that we should surrender our rights but, at the same time, I will say this: that if we can get a solution which we can live with, we shall be very foolish not to accept it. Now when I say that, I am in fact saying it to myself because I shall have to take the responsibility for the solution.” Ref: Friends, Not Masters by Muhammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan 11

WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY MUHAMMAD AYUB KHAN WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY “The responsibility does not lie on any of you, so let me tell you very plainly that the policy is going to be mine. I shall consult you whenever I am in doubt regarding technical details, but if anyone of you interferes with my policy, I shall deal with him myself. This problem, if not tackled properly, may well mean the end of the country. I mean every word of it. So, don’t let anyone make any mistake about it.” Ref: Friends, Not Masters by Muhammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan 12

WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY MUHAMMAD AYUB KHAN WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY “What we were being called upon to this is to barter away natural flowing waters into our canals, for storage water, and the history of storage is that it begins to silt the moment it is completed. Besides, we are going to put back by about ten years or so by building these storages and link-canals. All this efforts could have been put to more constructive effort. So, we are making great sacrifices.” Ref: Friends, Not Masters by Muhammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan 13

WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY MUHAMMAD AYUB KHAN WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY “As I explained to my people at the time of signing the Treaty, the solution that we had finally arrived at was not the ideal one but it was the best we could get under the circumstances.” Ref: Friends, Not Masters by Muhammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan 14

WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY MUHAMMAD AYUB KHAN WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY “After years of negotiations of the utmost complexity, heart-breaking delays and frequent stalemates, we had, I felt, been able to obtain a solution which was adequate. So, whereas there was no cause for rejoicing at the signing of the Treaty, there was certainly cause for satisfaction that a possibly very ugly situation had been averted.” Ref: Friends, Not Masters by Muhammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan 15

WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY MUHAMMAD AYUB KHAN WORDS & EFFORTS FOR THE TREATY “With the signing of the Treaty, a chapter of long and uneasy negotiations and suspense in our national affairs came to an end. We entered a period of sustained hard work to provide the huge storages and immensely long link-canals for the alternative sources of water. By 1970 we hope to have completed these works, and when that is done we shall be independent of India in the matter of water supply.” Ref: Friends, Not Masters by Muhammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan 16

LONG-TERM TEMPORAL VARIATION OF FLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS Sr. No. River Stations Annual Volume in MAF (BCM) Pre-Treaty (1922-1960) Post-Treaty (1960-2013) 1 Indus at Kalabagh 90 (111) 88 (108) 2 Jhelum at Mangla 23 (28) 22 (27) 3 Chenab at Marala 25 (31) Total 138 (170) 135 (166)

Article-II Provisions Regarding Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Beas) (1) All the waters of the Eastern Rivers shall be available for the unrestricted use of India, except as otherwise expressly provided in this Article. (2) Except for Domestic Use and Non-Consumptive Use, Pakistan shall be under an obligation to let flow, and shall not permit any interference with, the waters of the Sutlej Main and the Ravi Main in the reaches where these rivers flow in Pakistan and have not yet finally crossed into Pakistan. (3) Except for Domestic Use, Non-Consumptive Use and Agricultural Use (as specified in Annexure B), Pakistan shall be under an obligation to let flow, and shall not permit any interference with, the waters (while flowing in Pakistan) of any Tributary which in its natural course joins the Sutlej Main or the Ravi Main before these rivers have finally crossed into Pakistan. 18

Article-III Provisions Regarding Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) (1) Pakistan shall receive for unrestricted use all those waters of the Western Rivers which India is under obligation to let flow under the provisions of Paragraph (2). (2) India shall be under an obligation to let flow all the waters of the Western Rivers, and shall not permit any interference with these waters, except for the following uses, restricted (except as provided in item (c) (ii) of Paragraph 5 of Annexure C) in the case of each of the rivers, The Indus, The Jhelum and The Chenab, to the drainage basin thereof: (a) Domestic Use; (b) Non-Consumptive Use; (c) Agricultural Use, as set out in Annexure C; and (d) Generation of hydro-electric power, as set out in Annexure D. (3) ……… (4) Except as provided in Annexures D and E, India shall not store any water of, or construct any storage works on, the Western Rivers. 19

Annexure-D Generation of Hydroelectric Power by India on the Western Rivers [Article III (2) (d)] The provisions of this Annexure shall apply with respect to the use by India of the waters of the Western River for the generation of hydroelectric power under the provisions of Article III (2) (d) and, subject to the provisions of this Annexure, such use shall be unrestricted: provided that the construction and operation of new hydroelectric plants which are incorporated in a Storage Work (as defined in Annexure E) shall be governed by the relevant provisions of Annexure E. 20

SUMMARY OF PROJECTS BY INDIA ON WESTERN RIVERS 1. Number of Projects Indus Jhelum Chenab 16 24 20 Total: 60 2. Installed Capacity (MW) Chenab (including Pakal Dul) 114 1488 4091 5693 3. Pondage (Acre-ft) 8076 7553 53534 69163 4. Storage (Acre-ft) 88000

Annexure D Design Criteria Provisions Regarding Sediment Outlets, Spillway and Intakes for Turbines Paragraph 8 (d) There shall be no outlets below the dead storage level, unless necessary for sediment control or any other technical purpose; any such outlet if provided shall be of minimum size, and located at the highest level, consistent with sound and economical design and with satisfactory operation of the works. 22

Annexure D Design Criteria Provisions Regarding Sediment Outlets, Spillway and Intakes for Turbines Paragraph 8 (e) If the conditions at the site of a Plant make a gated spillway necessary, the bottom level of the gates in normal closed position shall be located at the highest level consistent with sound and economical design and satisfactory construction and operation of the works. 23

Annexure D Design Criteria Provisions Regarding Sediment Outlets, Spillway and Intakes for Turbines Paragraph 14 The filling of Dead Storage shall be carried out in accordance with the provisions of Paragraph 18 or 19 of Annexure E 24

OPERATIONAL CRITERIA OF RUN-OF-RIVER PLANT (PARAGRAPH 15 OF ANNEXURE-D) “Subject to the provisions of Paragraph 17, the works connected with a Plant shall be so operated that (a) the volume of water received in the river upstream of the Plant, during any period of seven consecutive days, shall be delivered into the river below the Plant during the same seven-day period, and (b) in any one period of 24 hours within that seven-day period, the volume delivered into the river below the Plant shall be not less than 30%, of the volume received in the river above the Plant during the same 24-hour period: ………. Cont…/2 25

Annexure-E Initial Filling 18. The annual filling of Conservation Storage and the initial filling below the Dead Storage Level, at any site, shall be carried out at such times and in accordance with such rules as may be agreed upon between the Commissioners. In case the Commissioners are unable to reach agreement, India may carry out the filling as follows: (a) if the site is on the Indus, between 1st July and 20th August; (b) if the site is on the Jhelum, between 21st June and 20th August; and (c) if the site is on the Chenab, between 21st June and 31st August at such rate as not to reduce, on account of this filling, the flow in the Chenab Main above Marala to less than 55,000 cusecs. 26

Annexure-E Depletion of Dead Storage 19. The Dead Storage shall not be depleted except in an unforeseen emergency. If so depleted it will be refilled in accordance with the conditions of its initial filling. 27

Article-VII (2) If either Party plans to construct any engineering work which would cause interference with the waters of any of the Rivers and which, in its opinion, would affect the other Party materially, it shall notify the other Party of its plans and shall supply such data relating to the work as may be available and as would enable the other Party to inform itself of the nature, magnitude and effect of the work. If a work would cause interference with the waters of any of the Rivers but would not, in the opinion of the Party planning it, affect the other Party materially, nevertheless the Party planning the work shall, on request, supply the other Party with such data regarding the nature, magnitude and effect, if any, of the work as may be available. 28

Resolution of disputes Period of Dispute Resolution Name of Project Period of Dispute Resolution Salal Dam 1970 -1978 (8 Years) Baglihar HEP 1992 – 2007 (15 Years) Kishenganga HEP 1994 – 2013 (19 Years)

PAKISTAN’S CONCERNS AGAINST INDIA’S ATTITUDE Designs in violation of the Treaty Criteria Excessive Freeboard Deep Orifice Spillway Excessive Pondage India starts construction without informing Pakistan (Chutak HEP, Wullar/Tulbul) India does not provide data of the projects as per requirements of Article VII(2) India plans/constructs projects that are in clear violation of Treaty (Tulbul Navigation Project/Wullar Barrage) India stalls on the discussions on the projects with intent to bring these near completion before Pakistan opts for NE/COA India is unmindful in implementing the operational provisions of the Treaty (initial filling of Baglihar)

WAYFORWARD FOR SMOOTH IMPLEMENTATION OF IWT A need to bilaterally agree upon: to improve the data quality by following the internationally accepted practices; to disseminate the real-time quality-assured gauge and discharge data by employing the modern equipment like telemetry; to improve the management of upper watersheds;

WAYFORWARD FOR SMOOTH IMPLEMENTATION OF IWT to ensure the sharing of future projects’ plans and designs at inception stage; to formulate the procedures for determining various parameters of the new projects consistent with sound and economical design and satisfactory construction and operation of the works while remaining within the statutory regulation of the IWT.

SALAL HYDROELECTRIC PLANT Design Parameter Value Dam Location 75 km upstream of Marala Dam Height 305.5 ft Type of Dam Concrete Gravity/Rockfill Installed Capacity 690 MW Gross Storage 230,000 acre-ft Dead Storage Pondage Controllable Volume 58,000 acre-ft

BAGLIHAR HYDROELECTRIC PLANT Design Parameter Value Dam Location 160 km upstream of Marala Dam Height 469 ft Type of Dam Concrete Gravity Installed Capacity 900 MW Gross Storage 321,000 acre-ft Dead Storage 290,000 acre-ft Pondage 26,000 acre-ft Controllable Volume 158,000 acre-ft

KISHNEGANGA HYDROELECTRIC PLANT Design Parameter Value Dam Location 12 km upstream of Line of Control Dam Height 121 ft Type of Dam Concrete face rockfill (CFRD) Installed Capacity 330 MW Gross Storage 14,600 acre-ft Dead Storage 8,500 acre-ft Pondage 6,100 acre-ft Controllable Volume 14,000 acre-ft

WULLAR BARRAGE/ TULBUL NAVIGATION PROJECT Design Parameter Value Barrage Location 85 km upstream of Line of Control (LOC) Purpose Navigation Gross Storage 392,000 acre-ft Controllable Volume 263,000 acre-ft

Article-IX of the Treaty Procedure for Settlement of Differences & Disputes Permanent Indus Commission : Questions shall be examined by the Commission for an endeavour to resolve by agreement Govt. to Govt. level Either Government may take up any particular question directly with the other Government. Neutral Expert Difference falling under Part-I of Annexure-F (23 Technical questions) Court of Arbitration Differences other than Part-I of Annexure-F, being a “dispute” or any difference declared by the Neutral Expert shall be termed as “dispute” (Annexure-G) Any other way Upon agreement by the Commission 37

INTERPROVINCIAL WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD (WAA)

WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD - 1991 Water Apportionment Accord was mutually agreed by the four provinces and signed in 1991 This accord defines the water sharing formula for distribution of Indus Basin flows among the provinces 1977-82 historic canal diversions (102 MAF) were made basis for allocation of the waters of the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to the provinces; contributions from Eastern Rivers are negligible The Accord also defines the water allocations corresponding to various water availability scenarios (dry, average and wet conditions)

INDUS RIVER SYSTEM AUTHORITY Indus River System Authority (IRSA) was established in 1992 by the Government of Pakistan for implementation of the Accord IRSA is responsible for determining the seasonal water allocations and also for regulation of the reservoirs, link canals and headworks in the sense that the distribution is as per provincial shares and shortage to the system is evenly distributed Indus River System Authority (IRSA) comprises five (05) members; four from the provincial irrigation departments and one as a federal member. Chairman of the Authority is appointed for one year, on rotational basis.

OPERATION OF IRSA Knowledge base i.e. observed gauge and discharge data, is provided by provincial irrigation departments Seasonal water availability scenarios and system operation are planned by IRSA in consultation with provincial irrigation departments and WAPDA; due considerations are given to storage available in the reservoirs Seasonal water allocation plans are made by IRSA before start of the winter and summer crop seasons i.e. Rabi and Kharif.

OPERATION OF IRSA Anticipated shortages in the system are also communicated in seasonal plans so that provinces could mange their water demands within their allocation. Day to day operation is monitored by IRSA through collection of observed flows at rim stations and diversion to various canal commands through barrages. Anticipated seasonal allocations are revisited in the middle of season to update/revise the allocations.

Indus Tarbela Jhelum Chenab Mangla Kabul Ravi Sutlej C-J Chashma T-P NWFP CRBC C-J Chashma T-P Balochistan Canals Legend Rim Stations: Indus @ Tarbela Kabul @ Nowshera Jhelum @ Mangla Chenab @ Marala Sindh Barrages Punjab Barrages Reservoirs Major Rivers 44

HISTORIC REGULATIONS – 14(B) The record of actual average system uses for the period 1977-82 in the various canal commands, would form the guide line for developing a future regulation pattern. These ten daily uses would be adjusted pro-rata to correspond to the indicated seasonal allocations of the different canal systems and would form the basis for sharing shortages and surpluses on all Pakistan basis.

HISTORIC REGULATION – (1977-82) Province MAF % Punjab 54.51 53.06 Sindh 43.53 42.37 Balochistan 1.63 1.59 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) 3.06 2.98 Total 102.73 100.00

PARA -2 (Agreed Distribution) In the light of the accepted water distributional principles, the following apportionment was agreed to: All values in MAF Province Kharif Rabi Total Punjab 37.07 18.87 55.94 Sindh * 33.94 14.82 48.76 KP 3.48 2.30 5.78 Civil Canals in KP** 1.80 1.20 3.00 Balochistan 2.85 1.02 3.87 77.34 37.01 114.35 * Including already sanctioned Urban and Industrial uses for Metropolitan Karachi. ** Un-gauged Civil Canals above the rim stations (El. 1000 ft asl).

COMPARISON OF PARA-2 AND 1977-82 Province Para 2 1977-82 MAF % Punjab 55.94 48.92 54.51 53.06 Sindh 48.76 42.64 43.53 42.37 Balochistan 3.87 3.38 1.63 1.59 KP 5.78 5.06 3.06 2.98 Total 114.35 100.00 102.73

BALANCE RIVER SUPPLIES (PARA-4) Balance river supplies (including flood supplies and future storages) shall be distributed as below: Punjab 37% Sindh 37% KPK 14% Balochistan 12%

PRESENT DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM OF IRSA Water Availability < Actual Average System Uses 77-82 - Distribution as proportionate to 1977-82 Water Availability > Actual Average System Uses 77-82 but < Para 2 of WAA 1991 - 1977-82 uses are protected - Balance available as per Para 2 Water Availability > Para 2 of WAA 1991 - Para 2 are protected - Balance as per Para 4 Note: KP & Balochistan are exempted from shortages