Multi Hazard, Impact Based forecasting and warning services © Crown copyright Met Office

Case Study – India, June 2013 Kedarnarth Temple -heavy rain and melting snow over 4 days aggravated floods -350mm in 24hrs -sudden rapid melting of snow and ice on Kedarnarth mountain caused Charbari lake to flood upstream -killed more than 1000, left 70,000 stranded for days -Kedarnarth temple survived – major Hindu pilgrimage site

Kedarnarth before and after flood Settlements in east and west valleys (1&2) disappeared post event. Also settlement around the temple devastated.

What worked well Good Weather forecasts of heavy rainfall three days ahead of event Weather warnings issued by Indian Met Department Media coverage of threat Satellite remote sensing information available

What didn’t? Warning information was not fully understood by Government of Uttarakhand Disaster Manager – Unable to interpret “heavy rainfall for entire state” into effective impacts Local preparedness for this magnitude of hazard inadequate Late response resulting in additional hazards to responders during rescue operations Poor communication between central government, IMD and State Disaster Manager

What didn’t? Weather models and other hazard models not coupled Lack of scientific and technical capacity to translate hazard information into impacts – therefore, impacts underestimated Inadequate communication channels, which failed during the event Lack of appreciation and utilization of available hazard maps at local level Inadequate observations to forecast events on scale required by Gov. of Uttarakhand

Typhoon Haiyan, November 2013

WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions Going the extra mile – can science deliver?? “I would rather die with my refrigerator than let it be taken by a storm surge” Stakeholder meeting, Manila 2014 -irrational response to warnings – man used his fridge to store fish for his business, vital to his livelihood -need to warn in a way which is meaningful to the people so that they know how to react © Crown copyright Met Office

Typhoon -> Hazards -most warnings are based on sources but there is no info on impacts -typhoon means wind and rain to most people – what about storm surge and flash flooding?

Typhoon -> Primary Lightning

Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge

Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge

Typhoon -> Secondary Flood inundation

Typhoon -> Tertiary Health and increased vulnerability -vulnerability plays a huge part-here the ‘no’ has been removed as this flat area by the coast was seen as the best place to rebuild after typhoon damage.

Typhoon Hagupit, December 2014 -a year after Haiyan another typhoon of similar magnitude hit the Phillippines... © Crown copyright Met Office

Global (deterministic) 4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic) The 4.4 km Typhoon Hagupit 4.4 domain Global (deterministic) 4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic)

Typhoon Hagupit: Ensembles

TWO scenarios Stalling northerly – landfall not until Tuesday or later. Main hazards: Heavy rainfall, severe inland flooding and landslides. Probability 70% Fast westerly – landfall later Saturday or early Sunday. Main Hazards: wind and storm surge. Probability 30%.

Coping with Hurricanes/Typhoons Weather and climate extremes Weather analyses & forecast data Hurricane track, size, & intensity Storm surge, flooding, inundated areas Weather Translation to hazards Extraction of relevant information to predict hazards Affected population & infrastructure, disruption of services, damages due to wind & water, etc. Impact Estimation Placing into situational context Implementation of evacuation & recovery plans Reducing risk & response scenarios Mitigation strategies -forecast the weather as usual and translate this to hazards. Often this is where it stops. Warnings based on individual hazards. -next step is to estimate impacts and the level of these impacts. Warn for these impacts (risk=impact x likelihood). -enables mitigation strategies to be implemented as the emergency services/public know how it effects them and how to respond.

Some progress, still a limiting factor Considerable progress Holistic approach to impact and risk Major Uncertainty Some progress, still a limiting factor Considerable progress GEO-PHYSICAL HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY Socio-Economic IMPACT QUANTIFYING & REDUCING RISK WEATHER & CLIMATE EXTREMES Dotted lines are used. -geophysical hazard (flooding, lightning strikes, landslides etc) -modeling of exposure and vulnerability is still a fairly new area-growing]-estimate impacts with partner organisations -risks difficult to quantify but can estimate using risk=impact x likelihood. Then plan for mitigation. Develop SOPs.

Advice on impacts

Severe Weather Warnings Colour Codes NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED Keep up to date with latest forecast BE AWARE Remain alert and keep up to date with latest forecast BE PREPARED Remain vigilant, keep up to date with latest forecast and take precautions where possible TAKE ACTION Remain extra vigilant, keep up to date with latest forecast. Follow orders and any advice given by authorities and be prepared for extraordinary measures

Flood impact matrix

Public Advice Key Public advice key Very low Low Medium High No action required Keep an eye on the weather and flood forecasts Flooding possible – BE AWARE Remain alert and ensure you access the latest weather forecast for up to date information Be aware of conditions and drive accordingly Check weather and flood warnings Flooding is expected BE PREPARED Remain vigilant Consider re-scheduling your journey. Don’t drive or walk through flood water Think about preparing for flooding and take precautions where possible Check flood warnings Significant risk to life TAKE ACTION Remain extra vigilant and ensure you access the latest weather and flood forecasts Avoid all non-essential travel to postpone journeys if at all possible Follow advice given by authorities under all circumstances, and be prepared for extraordinary measures

Flood Guidance Statement

Science to service: Importance of partnerships -the whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts. -partners vital to successful planning of impact matrix-without which the impact based forecasting won’t be successful. -partners can then champion the Met Service to the government saying how good the forecasts are and how vital they are to disaster mitigation – improved the Met Services relationship with and position withing government. © Crown copyright Met Office

Typhoon Hagupit is example of impact based forecasting working to protect lives and livelihoods. So the answer to the question is forecast impacts not weather.

‘If you have a perfect system it will drive behaviours which will mitigate all impacts’

Lake Victoria Mobile Weather Alerts – Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Met Office is providing model data and forecasting support to the Ugandan Department of Meteorology, who issue alerts via SMS to mobile phones of fishermen The mobile alerts are sent out daily and are colour coded to indicate risk The pilot study started in July 2011, there are currently over 1,000 subscribers Tom Butcher, Met Office External Relations Manager talking to fishermen and Lake Victoria rescue service