1 Summary of Reviews: Workpapers Approved by the California Technical Forum Part 2 Meeting: California Technical Forum January 28, 2016 Jeff Hirsch/Kevin Madison Consultants - CPUC Ex Ante Team

Clarifications for Issue Areas Encountered during Ex Ante Reviews Use of DEER values and methods Standard practice baselines Best available data 2

DEER Values Use of DEER values and/or assumptions is generally required. Example DEER NTG values are to be used as default except when supported by more recent evaluation with staff approval Room AC and Freezer measures are covered by DEER DEER defaults used until recent participant results are available and approved by staff 3

DEER Methods Use of DEER methods is required, but methods as used here does not imply simply adopting DEER point values. Examples 1.Code baseline calculations for LED fixtures and retrofit kits - workpaper has an acceptance approach, but took time for EAR team review that could be shortened. 2.Demand impacts and interactive effects for clothes washers and dryers - incorrect demand analysis and incorrect application of HVAC IE to all loads could have been easily corrected if proposed approach had been outlined and reviewed at the abstract (or other) early stage. 4

Standard Practice and Code Baselines Cases when gross savings shall be calculated over the standard practice or code baseline: –ROB/NC/CE savings are above ISP/Code for full EUL –ER savings are above ISP/Code for post RUL period In general, an “internal consensus” (CalTF, PA or implementer) on standard practice is not adequate, especially if evidence indicates a higher efficiency standard practice. 5

Standard Practice Baseline: Clothes Dryers Given the high cost of the electric HP dryers, ex ante team views it unlikely that participant clothes washers will be just minimally compliant. –Clothes washers are likely more energy efficient, with lower remaining moisture content, thus reducing dryer energy use. –What available research might provide this information? Did the Pacific Northwest research look at the installed washers as well as dryers? 6

Standard Practice Baseline: Clothes Washer Recycling 1.Program stated motivation is that 50% of all discarded appliances are transferred to new owners yet analysis assumes that all program collected appliances would have been transferred to a new owner. –It is unclear how collecting the 50% otherwise destroyed (or even collecting broken machine) can be avoided –Savings values must be adjusted down to consider the fraction of units that would have been destroyed, as standard practice, without the program. 2.Standard practice baseline should assume all clothes continue to be washed in washing machines –Workpaper assumes 50% of collected machine get 100% savings thus assume those clothes are washed by hand. 7

Standard Practice Baseline: Residential HVAC QI CalTF “consensus” was that non-permitted system replacements rarely, if ever, include additional treatments such as duct sealing or air-flow adjustment. –This leads to the use of “test-in” results from SCE QI program data as the standard practice baseline This is not supported by WO32 non-participant sample, where 60% of sites had non-permitted HVAC replacements. –Observed system characteristics do not support use of the SCE “test-in” results as the baseline –Observed results indicate that contractor action to address other system faults or issues is the likely appropriate baseline 8

Best Available Data: Not Always Adequate Examples 1.Commercial advanced powerstrips: –The available field research, limited to a small group of university and college buildings, is not likely applicable to most other building types –PAs not likely to pursue a program for universities and colleges only 2.RPP soundbar measure –Operating hours taken from PG&E sponsored Nielsen research on television viewing hours which do not take into account any audio only usage –May overestimate typical hours of standby mode and the savings estimates are derived from standby hours 9

Best Available Data: Not Always Comparable – Part 1 Example For clothes washer recycling workpaper, measure and base energy use a mix of non-comparable values –Baseline (collected appliance): “Non-Energy Star” appliances monitored in evaluation –Measure (counterfactual appliance): From DOE technical support document following DOE rating calculation methods Research findings indicate that actual installed energy use is much higher than estimated following DOE methods – thus the estimated savings is inappropriately elevated. 10

Best Available Data: Not Always Comparable - Part 2 11