The complexities of water disaster adaptation during the era of globalization Mogens Buch-Hansen

 The three provinces we have investigated are all very prone to natural hazards, such as typhoons, flooding, droughts, sea-water rising  Whether the hazards turns into a disaster depends on the societal capacities for adaptation dr = h x ((v/c) – m)  dr = disaster risk, h = severity of hazard, v = on location vulnerability, c = household capacity,  m = capacities of authorities When will a natural hazard turn into a disaster?

 The Government introduced the National Target Program for New Rural Development in  The factors of globalization:  Rapidly penetrating market forces  Export of labour  De-agrarianization Factors impacting on the societal capacities for CC adaptation

 Development of rural economy and to improve spiritual and material life of rural people;  Rural areas developed linking agriculture to rapid development of industry, services and urban areas  Socioeconomic infrastructure modernized – Cultural characteristics preserved;  Ensure Eco-environment green, clean, beautiful;  Increase quality of political system operation: Good governance National Targeted Program on New Rural Development

 Shift economic and agricultural production structure;  Strengthen agricultural extension;  Research and apply advanced technologies and science for production.  Mechanize agricultural sector, reduce damages after harvests.  Preserve and develop traditional trade-villages;  Provide rural laborers with vocational training, develop industry in rural areas, create jobs and shift rapidly rural labor structure. Content of NRD

 Develop household economy, farmhouse economy, cooperative groups, co-operatives.  Develop small and medium size enterprises in rural areas.  Develop policy mechanisms to promote economic linkage between economic sectors in rural areas Content of NRD, cont.

Top-down implementation

 The NTP-NRD is an approach ‘largely geared by a central planning attitude and method marred by a “silo mentality”….’. .’policies and strategies to encourage the private sector, including all the farmers, to take control and improve their livelihood, are basically missing…’  …’operationalisation …still builds primarily on old approaches and methods from the central planning perceptions’ The Swedish Institute for Security & Development Policy assessment:

 ‘Climate changes will have a big impact on agriculture and rural development. This issue should be taken into consideration when studying the solutions in the strategic vision’.  ‘The new strategic approach should improve …participatory decision-making…and management..’  ‘Participatory approaches are not mentioned in the NTP-NRD expect for commune people committees and other large party organisations’ Further….

 By most respondents seen as the most import factor together with Government policies impacting on peoples’ livelihoods  Positive effects of creating new opportunities (e.g. shrimp production for export) but also dependence on volatile markets  Fierce competition from other Asian producers, especially China, resulting in low prices Rapidly penetrating market forces

 Last 25 years have seen an explosive growth in internal and external labour migration. Two types:  Internal seasonal migration to supplement meagre incomes from agriculture  External (big cities and abroad) contract labour. Significant contribution to local household economies and capacities for adaptation Labour migration

 De-agrarianization is ‘the long term process of occupational adjustments, income reorientation, social identification and spatial relocation of rural dwellers, away from strictly agricultural based models of livelihood’  Rapidly on-going process in neighboring countries and in Africa and Latin America.  Household survey: 109 HH out of 271 HH had family members working outside for long time De-agrarianization slowly appearing

 There is a uniform agreement among all respondents from all provinces under investigation that rural policies have a positive impact on the local livelihoods, though the implementation of the policies could sometimes be better, e.g.:  Promotion of shrimp ponds in mangrove forest, road constructions blocking for outflow of water.  Uncertainty of the impact of the NTP on NRD The impact of Government policies

 Much evidence has been collected during our research to argue in favour of local approaches to climate resilient development. We found much evidence supporting a replacement of the top-down pursuance of quantitative economic growth projects through exploitation of natural resources supplemented by attempts to respond to extreme climate events by investing in technical solutions of constructing dykes and building higher bridges, roads, safe harbours, etc. Conclusions

 Our case studies have confirmed that increasing climate variability and extremes provide serious challenges to the local communities but are very much seen by the local population in the context of the other rapidly changing societal conditions, like the penetration of market forces, the increasing export of labour and the government policies that are both mitigating and acerbating the threats of climate related natural hazards. Conclusions, cont.

 This calls for further local, contextualized studies of the interrelationships between climate related natural hazards and the forces of globalization and Government policies  THANKS for your attention Last word