US Program Overview Scott Denning, Chair NACP Science Steering Group

NACP Questions 1.What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO 2, CH 4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (“Diagnosis”) 2.What processes control the sources and sinks of CO 2, CH 4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (“Attribution/Processes”) 3.Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (“Prediction”) 4.How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers? (“Decision support”)

Sources, Sinks, and Processes economicsinstitutionspolicy oceanforestsfarmsoceancitiesindustry atmosphere Carbon exchanges with the atmosphere over North America are managed by people Decision Support Task Force to engage stockholders and help coordinate research & reporting forestersfarmerscitizensindustrialists

Program Elements: Question 1 Diagnosis of Current Carbon Budgets A hierarchical approach for large-scale, distributed terrestrial measurements Substantially improved fossil fuel emissions inventories with high resolution downscaling in time and space, and methods for evaluating these inventories using atmospheric measurements Hydrologic transfers of carbon over land, and sequestration in sediments Ocean measurements and modeling, both in the coastal zone and the open ocean, in coordination with the OCCC An atmospheric observing system consisting of ground stations, aircraft and measurements from towers Spatially-distributed modeling of carbon cycle processes Model-data fusion and data assimilation to produce optimal estimates of spatial and temporal variations that are consistent with observations and process understanding Interdisciplinary intensive field campaigns designed to evaluate major components of the model-data fusion framework

0>2.0 %disturbed / yr Forest Disturbance LEDAPS Project PI: Jeff Masek (NASA GSFC) NACP Data Cubes PI: Samuel Goward (UMD) Landsat-based records of North American forest disturbance Courtesy Jeff Masek, NASA GSFC

North American Biomass J. Kellendorfer, WHOI Courtesy Jeff Masek, NASA GSFC

Year Two Year Three Year Four Year Five Five-Year Panel: Year One USDA Forest Service FIA Plots a gift to the NACP 6000 acre grid cells 1 plot per grid cell >800K plots each plot visited every 5 (east) or 10 (west) years Courtesy Dave Hollinger, USFS

Average annual live tree C stock change by county, estimated from FIA data MgC/ha/yr Courtesy of Linda Heath, USFS

Net cumulative change in soil carbon from caused by changes in tillage intensity and crop rotations. Net change = 67.7 Tg C. Estimates of soil carbon change at 30x30m resolution using combination of remote sensing and inventory products Courtesy Tris West, ORNL

NACP and Coastal Oceans Downstream reservoir for river DIC, DOC, and nutrients Both upstream and downstream boundary for atmospheric trace gases A zone of intense carbon and nutrient cycling in which biogeochemical processes are not well observed or quantified Courtesy Scott Doney, WHOI

Inverse Modeling Air Parcel Sources Sinks transport (model) (solve for) concentration transport sources and sinks (observe) Sample

N.A. Atmospheric CO 2 Obs: 2004

Ring of Towers (summer 2004 only)

Expansion of Network? (2006)

NACP “Mid-Continent Intensive” (2007)

“Operational” Atmospheric Budgets Courtesy Wouter Peters, NOAA ESRL

Research Elements: Question 2 Processes Controlling Carbon Budgets Carbon consequences of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in atmospheric CO 2, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition, and climate Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in disturbance regimes, forest management, and land use Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to agricultural and range management The impacts of lateral flows of carbon in surface water from land to fresh water and to coastal ocean environments Estuarine biogeochemical transformations; Coastal marine ecology and sedimentation; Air-sea exchange and marine carbon transport; and Human institutions and economics Urban & suburban land management

Warming Experiments in Oklahoma Long-term: 7-years Warming: 2 o C Clipping: Yearly One year, step change Warming: 4 o C Precipitation: doubled Courtesy Yiqi Luo, Univ of OK

Plant community Leaf Ps Phenology Growing season Plant growth Microbial community Plant N uptake Plant & soil C Available N Quality of bulk litter Respiration NUE Litter Decomposition Mechanisms underlying carbon-climate Feedback (after 6 years of ecosystem manipulation) 1.Warming extended growing seasons 2.Warming stimulated C 4 plant growth 3.Warming increased nutrient availability 4.All the above leads to increases in NPP 5.Warming stimulated respiration in a similar percentage to NPP 6.No net change in carbon balance or storage! Courtesy Yiqi Luo, Univ of OK

Project VULCAN Emissions Estimates (AREA Sources) natlog of tonnes C/day: January 3, 2002 Country-level consumption Distrib. By  Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ

Project VULCAN Emissions Estimates (POINT Sources) Tonnes C/day/facility Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ

Project VULCAN Emissions Estimates (ROAD Sources) Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ

Program Elements: Question 3 Predictive Modeling Transfer of synthesized information from process studies into prognostic carbon-cycle models Retrospective analyses to evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of disturbance regimes simulated by prognostic models Evaluation of predictions of interannual variations with predictive models against continued monitoring using observational networks and diagnostic model-data fusion systems Development of scenarios of future changes in driving variables of prognostic models Application and comparison of prognostic models to evaluate the sensitivity of carbon storage into the future Incorporation of prognostic models into coupled models of the climate system

Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model An “atmospheric” grid cell contains many patches Fast time scale dynamics: Long time scale dynamics: Courtesy David Medvigy, Duke Univ

Program Elements: Question 4 Decision Support North American contribution to the State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR, King talk later today) Analysis of the longevity of sinks Assessment of sequestration options given best scientific evaluation of present and future behavior of carbon cycling Provide scientific understanding to inform management of the carbon cycle given improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction Early detection of carbon cycle risks and vulnerabilities Scenario development for simulation of future climate

North America is currently a net source of CO 2 (1264 Mt C yr -1 ), with 30% of fossil fuel emissions (1856  464 Mt C yr -1 in 2003) offset by a net terrestrial sink of 592  296 Mt C yr -1. SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Courtesy Tony King, ORNL

NACP Integration Strategy Process studies and manipulative experiments inform improved models Systematic observations of land, ocean, and atmosphere used to evaluate models Innovative model-data fusion techniques produce optimal estimates of time mean and spatial and temporal variations in fluxes and stocks Improved models used to predict future variations, and tested against ongoing diagnostic analyses Predictive models and continuing analyses used to enhance decision support experiments diagnostic models observing networks predictive models decision support maps of variable fluxes and stocks model/data fusion

Conclusions NACP consists of hundreds of individual research projects, supported by 9 US agencies Ambitious objectives: diagnosis, attribution, prediction, and decision support for carbon cycle science over North America Some easy connections and collaborations with colleagues in Canada and Mexico, some will no doubt have to find one another Let’s get to work!