NCEP UCAR Review (updated version from AMS presentation) Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction October 6, 2009 “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

2 Overview Motivation for Review Define NCEP –Organization and Staff –Introduce Office of Director –Strategic Alignment with Seamless Suite of Products –Collaborative Efforts –Service/Science Linkage: Test Beds NCEP Budget/Planning Process Large Projects R2O Forces for Change Summary

3 Motivation for Review NCEP is considered a “National Resource” and a “National Treasure”… –Needs to be treated as such –Outside review is essential Last overall review spanned a five year period between NCEP has been aggressive in responding to reviews Time is now to initiate a new cycle in the review process –Prefer reviewing NCEP in its entirety; rather than sequential center by center reviews

4 Why Now? We Are at a Strategic Crossroad –Some who believe we should expand the predictive capabilities from the traditional weather and climate into new areas (e.g., ecosystems) –Others feel we should stick to our core abilities (i.e., weather and short-term climate) We Have a New Strategic Plan –Based on internal and external input –Based on new approaches Multi-model ensembles, community modeling, etc. We Are Moving Into a New Facility We Are Entering a New Era

5 Define NCEP

6 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Space Weather Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Organization: Central component of NOAA’s National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Storm Prediction Center Total FTE: Contractors/61 Visitors 5 NOAA Corps

Keesha Johnson Supporting Secretary Barbara Eubanks Secretary Sue Perrotta Administrative Officer NCEP Office of Director Louis Uccellini Director Lauren Morone Operations Officer Kim Montgomery Budget Officer Mark Moran Chief Science Officer Dennis Staley Executive Officer Adena Fritz Asset Manager

9 DirectorDr. Louis W. Uccellini SecretaryBarbara Eubanks Admin Support for Director, Coordinate Director’s Calendar, Correspondence, Time & Attendance, Travel Point OC, Tours/Visits. SecretaryKeesha JohnsonAdmin Support for Office of Director Executive OfficerDennis Staley Advisor to Director, Executive Oversight, Overall Planning and Financial Management, Strategic Planning, Policy, NWSEO/Employee Relations. Chief Science OfficerCommander Mark Moran Interagency and International Coordination, Planning and Execution of Science Activities, Data Collection Requirements, HPC Resource Allocation Council Operations OfficerLauren Morone Annual Operating Plan Milestones, Performance Measures, Weekly/Monthly Reports, Training, Aviation, Directives, Presentations Administrative OfficerSusan C. Perrotta Personnel, Security, Facilities, Safety, Admin Procedures, EEO, NCEP Table of Organization, OD Office Purchasing Budget OfficerKim Montgomery Budget Execution, Budget Operating Plans, Reimbursable Agreements, Line Office Transfers, NCEP Technical Operating Plan Asset ManagerAdena Fritz Asset Management, Property Custodian, Designated Agency Representative. Chief Admin Officer, JCSDA Vacant NCEP Office of Director

10 Introduce Office of Director

11 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions

12 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System* Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation

13 Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the NWS AWC/SPC/CWSUs –CCFP SPC/WFO –Watch “by county” HPC/WFO –Winter Weather Desks –Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD TPC/HPC/WFO –Hurricane “Hot Line” AWC/WFO/CWSU –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product CPC/SPC/HPC Regions/WFO/RFC –Hazard Assessment –Seasonal outlooks/CTB OPC/TPC/WFO –Near shore  High seas HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR –Unified Surface Analysis! SWPC/AWC –Solar/Aviation Products

14 Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community EMC Planning Meeting (each December) –SSD Chiefs, NCEP Service Center reps and “outside” participants attend –Review assessments –Provide priorities for current and next fiscal year –Influence next year’s implementations Regions and outside participants have opportunity to assess all implementations –Participants decide which to take part in

15 Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community Expanded participation during recent years –NCEP Centers –NWS Regions –University Community –Private Sector Mailing list maintained for notifications of upcoming major changes Notification is provided to mailing list of upcoming evaluation periods including due dates Parallel data sets are made available to those who agree to participate Completed evaluations submitted by due date are used as input to decision on implementation

16 Management Support for Increasing NWS Interactions with NCEP Ongoing support for including regional view in new NCEP Strategic Plan Visiting forecaster program 9 forecasters visited HPC in 2008 Considering visiting forecast program for OPC Spring experiment in Norman –Active inclusion of field forecasters Examples:

17 EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (with AFWA) AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed (Being developed) OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

18 Budget / Planning Process

19 Internal Planning Process Centered Around NOAA’s PPBES NOAA Strategic Plan NWS Strategic Plan NCEP Strategic Plan NCEP Operating Plan NCEP Technical Operating Plan Center Executive Summaries Individual Center Multi-Yr Implementation Plans Individual Performance Plans

20 NCEP Technical Operating Plans Mapping Resources to Goals GPRA NWS GOALS NCEP GOALS (Strategic Goals) KEY DELIVERABLES MILESTONES BUDGET ALLOCATION ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NTOP ELEMENTS NOAA GOALS NCEP GOALS (Strategic Goals)

21 Performance Measures Goals/Objectives Milestones Resources ($$/People) NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Internal Planning Timeline Nov. Dec. Late Sept. Mid Sept Early Sept.Aug. Apr. NCO Review Dec. EMC Review NTOPS 1 st draft Final NTOP When Budget is Allocated Executive Summary Annual Operating Plan Identify Agency Milestones Internal Coordination Corporate Board Planning Meeting Question: How Are We Mapping This NTOP Process Into Individual Performance Plans?

22 Budget Historical Base Funding (Direct Appropriation) * Another $10-$15M Other Funding Sources

23 6% CPC 11% AWC OPC 45% HPC, SPC, TPC, SWPC, NCO OR&F 38% EMC, NCO Supercomputing * * Emerging Area EMC and NCO Supercomputing Recently Moved to NOAA Mission Support NCEP working on Ecosystem White Paper with NOS, OAR and other NOAA components to initiate participation in ecosystem goal % of NCEP Budget Contributing to NOAA Strategic Plan Goals

24 Large Projects

25 Large Projects New Building Computer Upgrade AWIPS2 Transition NEMS Multi-model ensembles –For extreme events, e.g., severe and winter wx Satellite data assimilation through JCSDA “Decision Support” HFIP / WRF-DTC CFS Upgrade: Reanalysis/Reforecast Global HYCOM (w/Navy) Preparing for Solar Max with Reorganized SWPC NextGen Air Transportation System Modernization OCONUS support Air Quality

26 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Includes 40 spaces for research community Construction Start09-May-07 Move StartEst Move CompleteEst Revised Construction Schedule

Main Entrance Auditorium December, 2008 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Court Yard December, 2007 August, 2009

28 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction NORTH Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (in background)

29 R2O

30 NOAA is working on: 1.Research to Operations Policy (complete) 2.An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location 3.A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations NOAA Research and Development Funnel

31 Launch List – Model Implementation Process EMC NCO R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Transition from Research to Operations Requirements EMC Schematics in the Model Transition Process OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers NOAA Research Concept of Operations Service Centers User Observation System Field Offices Effort EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability ASI, COLA, ARCS Operations to Research Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT

32 NCEPNCEP R2O 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 2 NCEP is well positioned to provide an operational infra- structure for the transition processes User Community R&D Community OPERATIONS 1 3 EMC CFS 5 4 O2A CTBCPCCTBCPC CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal) O2R R2O

33 Increases in skill of CPC official outlooks: 20% or more (O’Lenic et al 07) CTB Spun up (0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) CFS (v1.0) implemented FY09 Goal: mo Running Mean: 27 FY10 Goal: 21 Upward Adjustments planned, but depend on implementation time line for CFS v2, etc. FY09 Goal: mo Running Mean: 27 FY10 Goal: 21 Upward Adjustments planned, but depend on implementation time line for CFS v2, etc. Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP (CFS / CTB) Contributed to improved Forecast Skill GPRA Performance Measure

34 Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite; run at highest possible resolution –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System/Service Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –Increasing IT security: Address related vulnerabilities All models run as coupled Earth system models within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Applied to Ecosystems, Health……. –Community Model Approach (NUOPC;WRF) AWIPS2 – Converging NWS applications software systems Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

35 Summary NCEP is: –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery –Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services (both nationally and internationally) –Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research and operational communities