Conference Call March 19, 2007
The Economy In Feb, CPI firmed to a 0.4 % increase – Above consensus forecast for 0.3% increase Core CPI slowed to a 0.2% increase in Feb YOY, the overall CPI is 2.4% – Energy prices pushed up overall CPI
The Economy Retail sales in Feb came in soft – Retail sales nudged up 0.1% in Feb, following no change in Jan Below consensus forecast of 0.3% Retail sales were mixed in February YOY, overall retail sales in Feb were up 3.2%, from 2.2% in Jan
The Economy University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for March was 88.8 down a sharp 2.5 percentage points Under consensus and lowest since September The dollar remained down Friday as investors ignored dollar-positive U.S. data and started to reassess their outlook for the U.S. economy.
The Markets Report data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold official interest rates steady when it meets next week and also maintain its tightening bias Investors look to decisions from two major central banks next week -- the Fed and the Bank of Japan The market will be listening for an acknowledgement from the Fed that the U.S. housing slowdown may in fact not have bottomed quite yet
The Markets The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to – It slid 1.4% on the week, and is down 2.8% year to date – On Wednesday, the Dow dipped below for the first time since Nov. 6 The S&P 500 lost 5.33 to , and has fallen three of the past four weeks. It is off 2.2% on the year The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 6.04 to , ending the week 0.6% lower; it is now down 1.8% on the year.
QInsight Thoughts QInsight’s business cycle model in PLUNGE Financial, Financial Services, Basic Materials, Consumer discretionary, and Consumer Staples have historically led during Plunge QInsight is concerned investors are expecting the Fed to reduce short-term rates earlier than economic data or Fed statements indicate is likely