Evolving the NCEP Production Suite Dr. William M. Lapenta Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service NCEP Production.

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Evolving the NCEP Production Suite Dr. William M. Lapenta Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service NCEP Production Suite Review 07 December 2015

US Weather Bureau First Operational Production Suite Baroclinic: –300 km / 3-layer CONUS to 36 hr –1500z run –Started 2100z –Finished 2230z Thermotropic: –375 km / 2 layer No. Am to 36 hr –0300z run –Started 1000z –Finished 1230z Barotropic: –600 km / 1 layer ~NHemis to 72 hr –0300z run –Started 1230z –Finished 1300z 500mb Height 72h Forecast Valid 03Z 11 March 1956

National Weather Service ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Refresh Dispersion (smoke) Global Ensemble Forecast System Regional Hurricane WavesGlobal Ocean Space Weather Spanning Weather and Climate WAM NSWPS WRF-HYDRO Bays Storm Surge Global Dust Fire Wx 3 Ozone Wave Ensemble Land DA HRRR North American Multi-Model Ensemble System Tsunami

4 NOAA Operational Computer Upgrade in 2015 Petaflop = 1000 Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second 1 trillion = 1x10 12 = 1,000,000,000,000 Dec 2014 = 0.28 Pf Jan 2015= 0.77 Pf Dec 2016= 2.80 Pf Capacity per cluster

5 UMAC Membership  Meeting 4-7 August 2015 in College Park  90 Participants across the community  Preliminary findings and recommendations briefed to NOAA leadership  Report to be published by the end of October 2015  Materials available at:

6 UMAC Preliminary Findings and Recommendations

Mission Delivery Council Portfolio Integration Council Executive Council

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N July 2015 High-level Requirements Process Overview CaRDS 9 Request Originator Tier 1 – First Level (Local) Review (MIC/HIC, MSD, NC Director, etc. with visibility to FMC Director) Tier 2 – National Service Program (NSP) Team Review Tier 3 – AFS Director Review/Validation Tier 4 – MDC Validation Submit Request (short template) To PIC (as validated field requirement) To AFS (if contained within Portfolio) To NSP Team (for execution) Not Approved - Feedback to Originator Approved Needs/ Requests CaRDS Submission Pre-decisional A Mandate (e.g., executive order, public law, etc.) would enter Cards at Tier 2 Integrate with SD Portfolios or

10 Thoughts for the Meeting….  Integrated NWS Field (WFO, RFC, CWSU, Regions, National Centers) is a priority driver for numerical guidance requirements  Requirements (NOT SOLUTIONS) will be solicited, vetted and validated through the 11 NWS National Service Programs and the Integrated Field  Model development organizations responsible for developing solutions to validated requirements  The model implementation process needs revision  NCO 30-day parallel insufficient for adequate field assessment  Develop capability for model developers to interact with field during development cycles Think strategically this week…