GLOBEC Synthesis from a Program Manager’s Perspective GLOBEC NWA SI Meeting June 22, 2004

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Synthesis It’s hard! It’s hard! What to focus onWhat to focus on What to leave outWhat to leave out There’s never enough money There’s never enough money No single way to do it No single way to do it Multiple pathsMultiple paths Multiple groups of peopleMultiple groups of people No prescribed end product No prescribed end product

Why is synthesis so hard? Make general conclusions from specific information Make general conclusions from specific information Requires speculation and extrapolationRequires speculation and extrapolation Takes lots of time and interactive discussion Takes lots of time and interactive discussion Can’t be done by large group, usually takes smaller group of 4 – 8 individuals, or several smaller groups which come together along the way Can’t be done by large group, usually takes smaller group of 4 – 8 individuals, or several smaller groups which come together along the way

Synthesis (cont) Data goes through processing & statistics to create Data goes through processing & statistics to create Information gets synthesized to createInformation gets synthesized to create Knowledge gets integrated into the political process to inform and enable Knowledge gets integrated into the political process to inform and enable Action which (hopefully) will result inAction which (hopefully) will result in Societal Benefit Societal Benefit

The PART Process Program Assessment Rating Tool Program Assessment Rating Tool “The PART was developed to assess and improve program performance so that the Federal government can achieve better results. A PART review helps identify a program’s strengths and weaknesses to inform funding and management decisions aimed at making the program more effective.”“The PART was developed to assess and improve program performance so that the Federal government can achieve better results. A PART review helps identify a program’s strengths and weaknesses to inform funding and management decisions aimed at making the program more effective.” The NOAA Ecosystem Matrix program will be “PART-ed” this year The NOAA Ecosystem Matrix program will be “PART-ed” this year COP sits within Ecosystem Matrix, as does much of NMFSCOP sits within Ecosystem Matrix, as does much of NMFS NMFS was “PART-ed” last year, with a rating of “adequate”NMFS was “PART-ed” last year, with a rating of “adequate”

PART Questions Has the program demonstrated adequate progress in achieving its long-term performance goals? Do all partners (including grantees, sub-grantees, contractors, cost- sharing partners, and other government partners) commit to and work toward the annual and/or long-term goals of the program? Does the program have a limited number of specific long-term performance measures that focus on outcomes and meaningfully reflect the purpose of the program?

GLOBEC Legacy National SSC Meeting, 5/04 Modeling advances Modeling advances Data Data Students Students Influence on future programs Influence on future programs What will be the legacy of GLOBEC NWA? What will be the legacy of GLOBEC NWA?

New US GLOBEC Committees National SSC Meeting, 5/04 Data management (Wiebe plus many others) Data management (Wiebe plus many others) National conferences (Haidvogel, Batchelder, Werner) National conferences (Haidvogel, Batchelder, Werner) Pan-regional synthesis (Fogarty + regional Chairs) Pan-regional synthesis (Fogarty + regional Chairs) Book(s) (Ohman, Beardsley) Book(s) (Ohman, Beardsley) Quantitative skill assessment (McGillicuddy, Brodeur) Quantitative skill assessment (McGillicuddy, Brodeur) Ecosystem approaches to management (Murawski, Fogarty) Ecosystem approaches to management (Murawski, Fogarty)

Overall GLOBEC Goals “GLOBEC is designed to evaluate the likely consequences of changes in global climate and physics to the sustainability of animal production in the sea” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 11) “GLOBEC is designed to evaluate the likely consequences of changes in global climate and physics to the sustainability of animal production in the sea” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 11) “GLOBEC intends to vastly increase our understanding of the fundamental mechanistic processes that dictate “GLOBEC intends to vastly increase our understanding of the fundamental mechanistic processes that dictate The abundance of marine animalsThe abundance of marine animals The fluctuations in their abundance, andThe fluctuations in their abundance, and The secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climate” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 20)The secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climate” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 20)

The GLOBEC Challenge “The challenge to all prospective investigators is to demonstrate convincingly that their work leads to a new level of understanding of the links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change” (GLOBEC Report #6, p 6) “The challenge to all prospective investigators is to demonstrate convincingly that their work leads to a new level of understanding of the links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change” (GLOBEC Report #6, p 6)

GLOBEC NWA Hypotheses (GLOBEC Report #6, pp 2-3) In situ growth rather than lateral exchange is the dominant process controlling the abundance of animals on the Bank; In situ growth rather than lateral exchange is the dominant process controlling the abundance of animals on the Bank; Seasonal density stratification over the S flank causes prey aggregation in the pycnocline and thus increased survival of predator populations; Seasonal density stratification over the S flank causes prey aggregation in the pycnocline and thus increased survival of predator populations; Temporal changes in mixing and stratification may control the abundance and spp. composition of phytoplankton which in turn may result in different rates of growth and production of herbivorous copepods in well-mixed, frontal, and stratified regions of the Bank; Temporal changes in mixing and stratification may control the abundance and spp. composition of phytoplankton which in turn may result in different rates of growth and production of herbivorous copepods in well-mixed, frontal, and stratified regions of the Bank; The occurrence of large, episodic exchanges of water and organisms on/off the Bank contributes to variability in popn abundances; The occurrence of large, episodic exchanges of water and organisms on/off the Bank contributes to variability in popn abundances; Seasonal density stratification and the processes of turbulent mixing influence predator-prey encounter rates and thus the growth and survival of individual organisms; Seasonal density stratification and the processes of turbulent mixing influence predator-prey encounter rates and thus the growth and survival of individual organisms; Predation rather than starvation is the dominant source of mortality of fish larvae; predation rather than advective loss is the dominant source of mortality of copepods. Predation rather than starvation is the dominant source of mortality of fish larvae; predation rather than advective loss is the dominant source of mortality of copepods.

“But we didn’t get the resources to accomplish everything we had outlined in the Implementation Plan” “The study is envisioned to begin in 1993, with major field experiments to be conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998…In the intervening years, 1995 and 1997, less intensive broad- scale survey work should be conducted to monitor inter- annual variability” No mention of synthesis phase or further phases beyond field years. “The study is envisioned to begin in 1993, with major field experiments to be conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998…In the intervening years, 1995 and 1997, less intensive broad- scale survey work should be conducted to monitor inter- annual variability” No mention of synthesis phase or further phases beyond field years. Funding began in 1993, field experiments in 1995, 1997, Decade of funding since program began. Funding began in 1993, field experiments in 1995, 1997, Decade of funding since program began. Total = $54 M over 11 years Total = $54 M over 11 years $10.5M for shiptime$10.5M for shiptime $4M per year = $12M$4M per year = $12M $3M in 1996 = $3M$3M in 1996 = $3M $4.5M per year = $22.5M$4.5M per year = $22.5M $2M per year = $6M$2M per year = $6M

“But we didn’t get the shiptime to accomplish everything we had outlined in the Implementation Plan” # cruises (IP) d/cruise (IP) Total DAS (IP) # cruises (actual) DAS (actual) Totals

Vastly increase our understanding What do you know now about Georges Bank that you didn’t know 10 years ago? What do you know now about Georges Bank that you didn’t know 10 years ago? If you were to re-write the NWA Implementation Plan (GLOBEC Report #6) pp 6-24, what would be different?If you were to re-write the NWA Implementation Plan (GLOBEC Report #6) pp 6-24, what would be different? Georges Bank book?Georges Bank book? “State of Georges Bank” report?“State of Georges Bank” report? How will changing climate/NAO affect GB processes, structure, and function? How will changing climate/NAO affect GB processes, structure, and function? The secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climateThe secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climate

Important Events 98/99 recruitment 98/99 recruitment 98 copepods?98 copepods? Scotian Shelf crossovers Scotian Shelf crossovers Hydrographic interannual variability Hydrographic interannual variability NAO shifts NAO shifts

Can you ask better questions at the end than you could at the beginning? “In some ways we are more confused than ever, but we feel that we are confused on a higher level and about more important things” What questions would you now ask about Georges Bank/GoMe, that you couldn’t ask before GLOBEC? What questions would you now ask about Georges Bank/GoMe, that you couldn’t ask before GLOBEC?

Set up for pan-regional synthesis What are the dominant/controlling processes on Georges Bank? What are the dominant/controlling processes on Georges Bank? What larger (basin-scale) processes are at work to determine popn dyn and secondary production on GB? What larger (basin-scale) processes are at work to determine popn dyn and secondary production on GB? How would a climate signal propagate through the GB ecosystem? How would a climate signal propagate through the GB ecosystem? “links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change”“links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change”

NOAA Deliverables Predictive capability Predictive capability What can you predict? On what time/space scales? With what uncertainty? Who will use these predictions? How will these predictions be used?What can you predict? On what time/space scales? With what uncertainty? Who will use these predictions? How will these predictions be used? Management uses Management uses What GLOBEC results are being used now in fisheries management? How has GLOBEC improved the management of living marine resources?What GLOBEC results are being used now in fisheries management? How has GLOBEC improved the management of living marine resources? Where, when and how often should future measurements be taken to capture important features of Georges Bank/GoMe? (tie-in with Ocean Observations)Where, when and how often should future measurements be taken to capture important features of Georges Bank/GoMe? (tie-in with Ocean Observations) Technology development Technology development What GLOBEC technology is routinely used in NOAA operations now?What GLOBEC technology is routinely used in NOAA operations now?

Presentation materials In early GLOBEC years, Zack and Peter pounded the corridors of Congress drumming up support for the program In early GLOBEC years, Zack and Peter pounded the corridors of Congress drumming up support for the program In past COP crises, it was argued that some action/budget cut/reorganization would be devastating to GLOBEC In past COP crises, it was argued that some action/budget cut/reorganization would be devastating to GLOBEC Now, it’s time to show how support in Congress and saving COP funding has led to tremendous success in GLOBEC Now, it’s time to show how support in Congress and saving COP funding has led to tremendous success in GLOBEC

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