Comments on Climate Change and Security in the Arab Region By Dr. Elsayed Sabry Nasr.

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Presentation transcript:

Comments on Climate Change and Security in the Arab Region By Dr. Elsayed Sabry Nasr

Department of Geography & Geology Questions I would like to raise in relation to the themes of the paper Is the Arab region likely to be adversely affected ? Worse than other regions ? What elements of CC are particularly important in the region ? Is CC threatening food security ? Water scarcity: The management of water resources in transnational river basins. Are international conflicts likely? Does CC lead to refugee flows, threatening security ?

Department of Geography & Geology Rainfall and temperature change – from IPCC 4AR

Department of Geography & Geology Sea Level Rise and the Nile Delta (Dasgupta et al, 2009)

Department of Geography & Geology CC and food security Potential for rainfed agriculture may be reduced Increased competition, potentially provoking conflict, for increasingly scarce water resources for irrigation Unsustainable use of groundwater resources Excessively expensive irrigation on the basis of desalinized water ’Virtual water’ import as a solution (Allan, 2002)

Department of Geography & Geology Water management in transnational river basins Examples: Euphrates The Nile The Jordan Will CC lead to international conflict, or will regional collaboration and integration prevail?

Department of Geography & Geology Climate refugees Are claims of CC being the cause of current migrant flows correct ? Are projections of large future flows realistic ?