Air Quality trend analyses under EMEP/TFMM and link to EEA work Augustin COLETTE (INERIS), Chair of the TFMM/CLRTAP TFMM National Experts, CCC, MSC-E, MSC-W, ETC/ACM 20 th EIONET Air Quality Management and Assessment Workshop

Overview  TFMM Trend Assessment  Methodology  Measurement  Modelling (Eurodelta)  Link with EEA-ETC/ACM trend work Torseth et al., ACP, 2012

TFMM Trend Assessment  Spring 2014: TFMM Annual Meeting  Fall 2014: Trend Workshop  Winter  Spring 2015 : TFMM Annual Meeting  Fall 2015: EMEP Steering Body  Winter  Spring 2016 : TFMM Annual Meeting  Initial trend assessment studies  Discussion on methodologies  Agreement on methodology & modelling setup  Draft analyses & definition of writing teams  Drafts results + writing report  Review  Publications

Trend methodology for observations  Specifications  Time periods: / /  Data completeness: 75% of annual coverage and 75% of years covered  Statistical analysis:  Concentrations and wet deposition fluxes of Pb, Cd, Hg and B[a]P + other POPs: bi- exponential on the basis of monthly values;  Ozone (avg & max 8hr), NO2, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, sulphate, nitrate and carbonaceous atmospheric concentration and sulfur and nitrogen precipitation chemistry: Mann- Kendall and Sen-Theil slope on the basis of annual values & by season  Process  Centralised analysis (Centres) published on open TFMM wiki  Supplemented by national expert knowledge of  (i) data issues, (ii) need for filtering, (iii) non-linearity and changes of slopes in the record, (iv) additional compounds, (v) add or discard sites, (vi) changes in seasonal cycles, (vii) relation with local emission changes

Trend methodology for models: EURODELTA  6 regional CTMs + EMEP/MSC-W  Common setup  Meteorology  Emissions (GAINS/ECLIPSE)  Boundary conditions  3 tiers of experiments  1990/2000/2010 reference [7]  Sensitivity to emissions [6]  Sensitivity to boundary conditions [3]  Full 20yr hindcast [2] ED3-Trends

EURODELTA-Trends  Key Questions Model validationHow do model compare with observations in 1990, 2000, and 2010 ? How do models capture the trend in observations ? Can we conclude on the uncertainties in emissions? European policy effectiveness What if no emission change occurred in Europe ? Did “potency” changed over the past 20yrs? Can we identify changes in SIA formation ? Non-European influenceWhat if no emission changed beyond Europe ? What is the uncertainty related to boundary conditions ? Meteorological variabilityDoes meteorological variability contribute to the AQ trend over the past 20 yrs? ImpactsLink with effect community (health & ecosystems) What model dynamical evaluation means for IAM?

O3: Average trend  Composite of observations at 54 EMEP sites with valid observations over  Annual means were increasing in the 1990s  Ozone peaks decreased since 2000

O3: Statistics over the EMEP network  Fraction of stations with significant trend (%, pval<0.05)  Substantial average changes, yet unsignificant trends  short time period & interannual variability  Relative Change (%) Annual MeanJJA avg of daily MaxSOMO35AOT

EMEP&AIRBASE Complementarity  AIRBASE:  ~230 RU background stations  EMEP:  ~50 RU background stations EMEP / (54)EMEP / (54)AIRBASE / (231)  Consistent conclusion on the O3 trends in 2000’s when expanding to airbase coverage

O3: Lower photochemical production  Larger decreases at EMEP sites where O3 levels where higher  Negative trends for mean O3 in summer, even at urban sites Courtesy D. Derwent ETC/ACM - EEA

O3: EURODELTA : modelled exposure  6-RCTM median pop-weighted average SOMO Relative Change 2010 vs 2000 Std dev

Sulphur & Nitrogen Compounds  General decrease, some gaps between model&observations Ox. SulphurOx. NitrogenRed. Nitrogen > >

Particulate Matter  Average Trend at EMEP sites Solid line: Measurements Dottet line: EMEP model ModelObserved PM % / yr2.4% / yr PM % / yr3.0 % / yr  Confirmed at AIRBASE sites, with slighly larger trends close to the sources ETC/ACM - EEA

PM 2.5 Modelled Exposure (EURODELTA)  Average population weighted exposure by country  6-model median ensemble in 1990 and EURODELTA3

PM 2.5 Modelled Exposure (EURODELTA)  Change in exposure between 1990 and 2010  Left: relative change in the EMEP model (%)  Right: std dev. of the relative change in the 6-model ensemble EURODELTA3

BaP Trends: example of Germany Air concentrations (modelling) Emissions (official data) Trend analysis of measurements at German sites DE ng/l Total reduction 56% Growth from 2005 to % DE ng/l Total reduction 57% Growth from 2005 to % Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Value Trend Total reduction 68% Growth from 2005 to %

Heavy Metal: total reduction ( ) Wet dep. Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc. Lead Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc.Wet dep. Mercury Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc.Wet dep. Cadmium

Heavy Metals Trends  HMs:  Relative increase of the importance of non-EMEP and secondary sources

Conclusion  Main messages  O3:  increase in baseline in the 1990s  decrease of the peaks in the 2000s  Relative small fraction of sites with significant trends  PM & SIA  Larger decrease in the 1990s  HM & POPs  Larger decrease in the 1990s  Next steps  Full draft end of 2015  Publication Spring 2016  Ongoing Eurodelta analysis  Collaboration with other initiatives  EEA-ETC/ACM  CLRTAP AR  WGE Trend Report  TOAR