French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan): Planned future activities and examples of demonstration Eric Dombrowsky

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Outline n Major achievements during GoDAE n The present capacity n Services developed (examples) n The next phase

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Outline n Major achievements during GoDAE n The present capacity n Services developed (examples) n The next phase

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Major achievements during GoDAE from 1997 Fort de France meeting (1/2) n Mercator Océan established –Legal entity owned by CNES, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, Météo-France and SHOM n Mercator Océan is an operational, global, real-time ocean forecast service provider n Its activity follows 3 main axes: –Exploit and maintain real-time numerical ocean forecast systems Exploitation, production, expertise and qualification Maintenance –Ensure service level as required by its users, and promotes the development of downstream services at the Global scale Dedicated/generic services Communication, outreach –Prepare service evolutions to maintain service quality close to the state of the art Innovation, development, integration of new functionalities Prototyping, …

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Major achievements during GoDAE from 1997 Fort de France meeting (2/2) n System suite developed and operated –North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving (routine) –Global eddy permitting (routine) and low resolution (routine) –  Global eddy resolving (demo in April 2008) n Methodology defined, and tools implemented for assessment and validation –GoDAE Metrics n Links with data centers developed –CORIOLIS for the In Situ observing system –SSALTO/DUACS for the altimetry –Météo-France for the SST (to evolve within MyOcean) and Forcing n Connection with other operational oceanography centers established –Within EU-GMES: UKMO, NERSC, INGV, DMI, DFO –Bilateral collaborations MOON (Med sea), GOAPP (DFO/EC Canada), … –International GoDAE, EuroGOOS, …

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 The model configurations n 1 code : NEMO (OPA9+LIM) n 1 grid : all the configurations are on the same ORCA (tripolar) grid n One single input dataset : initialization and forcing interpolated inline n Some of these configurations are shared with the scientific and operational community –ORCA025: Drakkar and Glorys Project, Barnier et al. –UKMO, CMCC, EC, DFO, … ORCA025 1 point sur 12 ORCA12 ATL12 NEATL36

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08  T,  S ΨΨ  U,  V  U geo,  V geo  U bar,  V bar + Model initialisation  Baroclinic  Hbar SAM2 kernel Modal Space (Reduced Space) Control Space SEEK Analysis  T(k)  S(k) Barotropic  U(k)  V(k) The assimilation scheme: SAM2 (Kalman Filter type) 3D modes acting on 3D space SAM2v1: SEEK filter using multivariate 3D modes

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Outline n Achievements (system development) during GoDAE n The present capacity n Services developed (examples) n The next phase

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Several model configurations operated for several uses n Regional eddy resolving (2002  ) –North Atlantic + Mediterranean –operational: 5-7 km, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti. T/S and SST –From April 2008: 1/12° (6.5 km at 45°N), NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST, daily fcst –Target: mesoscale upper ocean, downscaling to smaller regional and coastal regions, … n Global eddy permitting (09/2005  ) –operational: ¼°, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti only –From April 2008: ¼°, NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST Has been operated in demo mode during Mersea TOP2: April  Sept 2007 –Target: global ocean climate monitoring, biology, sea ice, reanalysis, … n Global low resolution (05/2004  ) –Today: 2°, OPA8, SEEK assim of alti, T/S and SST –Target: oceanic initial conditions for coupled seasonal prediction, reanalysis n Global eddy resolving (to be operational at the end of MyOcean) –NEMO/LIM+SEEK 1/12° Has been demonstrated in April 2008 –Target: Global Marine Core Service and downscaling to European regions n Northeastern Atlantic high resolution (to be operational at the end of MyOcean) –NEMO 1/36° +SEEK + Tidal free surface –Target: IBIROOS Marine Core Service  Boundary data to coastal systems

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 System performance: SLA Global 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) Nov 07Apr 08Nov 07Apr 08 ~ = + +

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 System performance: T and S biases Global 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) Temperature Salinity Temperature Salinity +/-0.5° +/-0.05 Psu ~ = + + -

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 System performance: T and S RMSDIF Global 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) Temperature Salinity Temperature Salinity 0.5° 0.1 Psu 0.5° 0.1 Psu

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 T/S Global (1/4°) overall performances 1-year average (2007). Left: Bias, Right: RMSdiff 600m +/- 0.1 Psu +/- 0.5°C 600m 0.5 °C 0.1 Psu Temp Sal Temp Sal

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Mercator 1/12° April Mercator 1/4 April OSTIA April

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Mercator 1/12° - 20m salinity - April

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Mercator 1/12° - 100m salinity - April Mercator 1/12° - 100m salinity - April

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Outline n Achievements (system development) during GoDAE n The present capacity n Services developed (examples) n The next phase

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Use of Mercator products for Navy operations: acoustically interpretive products Sea Surface Temperature From MERCATOR system Thickness of the surface duct Exploitability of the surface duct Indicator: green: good conditions, Red: no conditions The French Navy (SHOM) has been developing Operational Ocean Forecating Systems since 1990: the SOAP program These systems rely now on Mercator products From Jourdan et al.

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 [S1] Delineated eddies and fronts French Navy product based on Mercator Front and eddies with potential acoustic impact detected by Navy forecasters and delivered to Navy headquarters for operations at sea

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Expertise added by Mercator Ocean Forecasters Example of Real-time bulletin: 29 March 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico n Assimilation: –2 on 3 Sat on duty, and some interest area are almost not covered. –No in-situ observations assimilated. n Model : –The model is a bit late, with the persistence of a small residual error in the south of the LCE. –The LC stream is confirmed by satellite SSH map and AVHRR data. –The LCE is well located compared to AVHRR data. n Overall situation : –On north : The new LCE is moving westerly along the sigsbee escarpment while the second LCE is virtually stationary. –On south : The CARE is crossing the YS, and increase the stability and intensity of the LC, this one is retracted (mode 1) 24 March 13 March 25 March Date of the lastest tracks 4 GFO 0 ENVISAT 6 JASON Number of tracks On duty during all the period Nowcast on March 29th

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Monitoring surface current to follow drifting objects

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 n E.g., SST monitoring in European waters Available regions map Thematic menu Indicator WEB service Soulat and Messal, 2008

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Bulletin Input -Displacement from (1ON: 130E) towards (40N:120E) Ocean bulletin: -significant intensification in the next 48 hr -significant weakening north of 20°N Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Example: RAMASSUN (May 2008) Guess cyclone fate from Ocean near surface heat content Buarque, 2008

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Tropical Cyclone DEAN (August 2008)

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Cyclone NARGIS (May 2008)

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Observing systems impact studies: Impact of altimetry on analysis and forecast accuracy SLA RMSDIFF No altimetry Jason onlyJason + Envisat Jason +Envisat +GFO Jason +Envisat +GFO +T/P 7-day Forecast (cm) 10,279,678,958,62 Nowcast (cm) 9,158,367,507,08 Hindcast (cm) 12,948,387,076,185,63 Results of an Observing System Experiment (OSE) All experiment: -North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving system (1/15°) -Multivariate assimilation of SLA+SST+T/S profiles -1 year integration (2004) Benkiran, 2008

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 > 0 means degradation in % 0 is the baseline (3 sats) < 0 means improvement in % RMS(Obs-Expi)-RMS(Obs-Baseline) RMS(Obs) Shown here diags from innovation: Obs (not yet assimilated) - Forecast Full domain POMME region Cape Verde region Assim of: In situ T/S + RTG SST + No alt Jason Jason + Envisat Jason + Envisat + GFO (baseline) Jason + Envisat + GFO + T/P Progressive loss ( ) [S5] Observing systems impact studies: Impact of altimeter data coverage Benkiran, 2008

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 ARGO deployment : start: 2002 Now: ~3000 floats Number of observations Global Ocean, Salinity 7-day forecast misfit NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific), Salinity 7-day forecast misfit NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific), Temperature 7-day forecast misfit improved forecast scores thanks to ARGO network Observing systems impact studies Impact of ARGO (low resolution global)

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Outline n Achievements (system development) during GoDAE n The present capacity n Services developed (examples) n The next phase

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington June 08 Future developments n System –Global eddy resolving (1/12°) –Enhanced capacity on North Atlantic + Med –High resolution (1/36°) in the Iberian Biscay Irish region (IBIROOS) Collaboration with Spain n Services –RT: Transition to operational services within MyOcean  2010 Daily service of short-term forecast O(1 week) GLO1/4+NATL1/12 Weekly assimilation and medium range forecast O(2 weeks) Operational backup at UKMO for global and NATL+MED –Reanalysis: GLORYS: 20-years reanalysis (altimetry era) within MyOcean  2010 Longer reanalysis: collaboration with ECMWF