Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Review of Forecast 4 Contest 2 San Francisco, CA.

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Presentation transcript:

Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Review of Forecast 4 Contest 2 San Francisco, CA

FAA Identifier: SFO Lat/Long: N / W N / W / (estimated) Elevation: 13 ft. / 4.0 m (surveyed) Variation: 17E (1975) From city: 8 miles SE of SAN FRANCISCO, CA

Observations from San Francisco KSFO Z 23010KT 10SM FEW016 BKN048 17/10 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T = KSFO Z 21008G16KT 10SM SCT024 BKN160 18/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP139 T = KSFO Z 21008KT 190V250 10SM BKN029 BKN160 18/10 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 T = KSFO Z 21012G17KT 10SM BKN029 BKN160 19/10 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP132 T = KSFO Z 20011KT 10SM SCT029 BKN035 BKN150 18/09 A2991 RMK AO2= KSFO Z 20012KT 10SM SCT031 BKN035 BKN150 18/09 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP128 T = KSFO Z 19012KT 10SM FEW028 BKN110 OVC150 17/10 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP122 T = KSFO Z 19010KT 10SM FEW027 BKN100 OVC150 17/10 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP119 T = KSFO Z 19006KT 10SM FEW027 BKN095 OVC150 17/11 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP113 T = KSFO Z 19008KT 10SM FEW027 BKN080 OVC095 16/11 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP111 T = KSFO Z 18011KT 10SM FEW027 BKN075 OVC090 16/11 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB18E48 SLP105 P T =

Observations from San Francisco ► KSFO Z 18011KT 10SM FEW027 BKN075 OVC090 16/11 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB18E48 SLP105 P T = ► KSFO Z 16009KT 10SM SCT027 OVC080 16/10 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB42E56 SLP094 P0000 T = ► KSFO Z 14012KT 10SM -RA BKN025 BKN065 OVC080 16/11 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB23 SLP085 P0000 T = ► KSFO Z 13010KT 6SM RA SCT018 BKN025 OVC040 14/12 A2975 RMK AO2 SLP075 P T = ► KSFO Z 13010KT 6SM RA BR FEW012 BKN018 OVC029 14/12 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP056 P0008 T $= ► KSFO Z 14012KT 6SM RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC027 14/12 A2968 RMK AO2 P0005 $= ► KSFO Z 15012KT 4SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC031 14/12 A2965 RMK AO2 SLP040 P0014 T $= ► KSFO Z 16014G23KT 2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC031 14/13 A2962 RMK AO2 SLP029 P T $= ► KSFO Z 20026G35KT 3SM RA BR FEW019 BKN031 OVC040 16/13 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 20035/0911 CIG 026 RWY L10 PRESRR ► P0011 $= ► KSFO Z 27016KT 10SM -RA FEW009 BKN032 OVC090 14/13 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 20035/0911 WSHFT 0939 SLP045 P0016 ► T $= ► KSFO Z 27010KT 10SM FEW009 SCT014 BKN022 14/12 A2968 RMK AO2 RAE08 SLP049 P0000 T $= ► KSFO Z 26014G19KT 10SM FEW009 SCT014 BKN022 14/12 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP T $= ► KSFO Z COR 26014G19KT 10SM FEW009 SCT014 BKN029 14/12 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP T ► $= ► KSFO Z 26014G19KT 10SM FEW009 SCT014 BKN022 14/12 A2969=

Synoptic Pattern

Radar

Surface Analysis

Verification

Standings

Up close and Personal

Lessons Learned - SFO ► Much of the action with western fronts is confined to the immediate frontal zone (at lower elevations). This is not the case at higher elevations where prolonged periods of precipitation precede and follow fronts. ► Temperatures do not vary much at night when it is breezy, cloudy and showers occur!

Sante Fe, New Mexico

Sante Fe, NM FAA Identifier: SAF Lat/Long: N / W N / W / (estimated) Elevation: 6348 ft. / m (surveyed) Variation: 12E (1980) From city: 9 miles SW of SANTA FE, NM

Observations from Sante Fe KSAF Z VRB04KT 10SM FEW075 SCT090 18/05 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP150 T = KSAF Z 17009KT 10SM BKN055 OVC080 19/04 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP136 T = KSAF Z 22016G24KT 10SM -RA BKN055 OVC085 15/08 A3017 RMK AO2 PK WND 18028/1926 RAB05 SLP149 P0000 T = KSAF Z 24017G22KT 3SM +RA BR FEW009 BKN047 OVC055 12/11 A3017 RMK AO2 P0004= KSAF Z 24016G22KT 1 3/4SM RA BR FEW007 BKN035 OVC050 12/11 A3018 RMK AO2 P0008= KSAF Z 24012G20KT 2SM RA BR SCT005 BKN026 OVC043 12/11 A3018 RMK AO2 P0011= KSAF Z 23009KT 4SM -RA BR SCT005 BKN032 OVC043 12/12 A3018 RMK AO2 P0011= KSAF Z 24008KT 10SM -RA FEW007 SCT032 OVC055 12/11 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP149 P T = KSAF Z 00000KT 10SM OVC043 13/11 A3014 RMK AO2 RAE05 SLP138 P0000 T = KSAF Z 11004KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW013 BKN039 OVC049 12/11 A3014 RMK AO2 RAB03 P0006= KSAF Z 18006KT 4SM -RA BR SCT014 BKN037 OVC049 12/12 A3014 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAB03 P0008= KSAF Z 16005KT 4SM -RA BR FEW005 BKN032 OVC039 12/12 A3014 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAB03 P0009= KSAF Z 15003KT 6SM -RA BR FEW005 SCT023 OVC035 12/11 A3015 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAB03 SLP145 P0010 T = KSAF Z 20018G36KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR FEW007 BKN035 OVC060 11/11 A3017 RMK AO2 PK WND 18036/2335 PRESRR P0018= KSAF Z 21016G22KT 3SM RA BR FEW009 BKN032 OVC039 10/09 A3018 RMK AO2 PK WND 18036/2335 WSHFT 2335 P0026= KSAF Z 20014G22KT 7SM -RA FEW009 SCT015 OVC040 10/09 A3018 RMK AO2 PK WND 18036/2335 WSHFT 2335 SLP156 P T = T =

Observations from Sante Fe ► KSAF Z 20014G22KT 7SM -RA FEW009 SCT015 OVC040 10/09 A3018 RMK AO2 PK WND 18036/2335 WSHFT 2335 SLP156 P ► T = ► KSAF Z 17007KT 8SM -RA BKN007 OVC035 10/09 A3018 RMK AO2 P0007= ► KSAF Z 10008KT 10SM -RA SCT007 OVC060 10/09 A3017 RMK AO2 P0009= ► KSAF Z 10007KT 10SM -RA FEW007 OVC065 10/09 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP151 P0009 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 03004KT 10SM BKN100 OVC120 11/09 A3015 RMK AO2 RAE20 SLP146 P0001 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM OVC090 10/09 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 14009KT 10SM -RA OVC065 10/09 A3017 RMK AO2 RAB21 SLP146 P0000 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 24005KT 10SM -RA OVC070 10/09 A3016 RMK AO2 RAE15B52 SLP143 P0000 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 18004KT 9SM -RA SCT014 BKN024 OVC060 10/09 A3017 RMK AO2 RAE04B31 P0001= ► KSAF Z AUTO 09008KT 7SM -RA FEW014 BKN041 OVC070 10/09 A3014 RMK AO2 RAE04B31 PRESFR P0002= ► KSAF Z AUTO 09005KT 10SM -RA FEW024 BKN060 OVC070 10/09 A3014 RMK AO2 RAE04B31 SLP133 P T ► = ► KSAF Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM BKN070 OVC090 10/09 A3012 RMK AO2 RAE41 SLP126 P0001 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 18006KT 10SM FEW009 BKN060 OVC100 11/09 A3012 RMK AO2= ► KSAF Z AUTO 22010KT 9SM -RA FEW020 OVC055 11/09 A3015 RMK AO2 RAB42 SLP142 P0001 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 17006KT 5SM RA BR FEW008 BKN034 OVC044 10/09 A3014 RMK AO2 P0007= ► KSAF Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW041 OVC055 10/09 A3012 RMK AO2 RAE52 SLP143 P T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW005 OVC055 10/09 A3012 RMK AO2= ► KSAF Z AUTO 08004KT 10SM -RA FEW041 BKN050 OVC065 09/09 A3009 RMK AO2 RAB04 SLP132 P0007 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 05004KT 10SM VCTS -RA BKN055 OVC090 10/09 A3009 RMK AO2 TSB19 P0003= ► KSAF Z AUTO 05004KT 10SM FEW060 BKN095 OVC120 09/08 A3009 RMK AO2 TSB19E34RAE30 P0003= ► KSAF Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW100 BKN120 09/08 A3010 RMK AO2 TSB19E34RAE30 SLP134 P0003 T = ► KSAF Z AUTO 18007KT 4SM RA BR FEW002 SCT030 OVC046 09/09 A3012 RMK AO2 RAB31 SLP145 P T ► =

Synoptic Pattern

Radar

Surface Analysis

Verification

Standings

Up close and Personal

Lessons Learned – Sante Fe ► Upslope, convergent flow leads to deep cloud cover and frequent showers in the southern Rockies. ► Evaporative cooling can drop readings at higher elevations to lower values than guidance indicates – especially during the daytime.