1 10/2003 © Crown copyright Unified Model Developments 2003 Clive Wilson NWP Met Office

2 10/2003 © Crown copyright Outline New location Configurations & Users Global and UK Mesoscale Changes Regional European Model Met.no high resolution (3km) New supercomputer - 15 node NEC SX6 Plans

3 10/2003 © Crown copyright New Headquarters & Operations Centre 24 September 2003

4 10/2003 © Crown copyright 21 August 2003

5 10/2003 © Crown copyright Specifications 13,000 square metres of office space £80m two IT halls, two supercomputers interactive innovation centre media centre training college library conference facilities restaurant sports and recreation area an observations trial site to develop and test new systems Exeter Bracknell

6 10/2003 © Crown copyright Operations centre

7 10/2003 © Crown copyright Operational Versions & External Users Global 38 levels, N216= 432x325 (~60km) UK Mesoscale 38 levels, 0.11 deg (12km) Stratospheric 42 levels 100-1hpa), N48=96x73 (~300km) Crisis models (LAMS) Middle East, Former Yugoslavia,SW Asia External CGAM UK, ICM Warsaw, Thai Met Service, New Zealand, met.no

8 10/2003 © Crown copyright Changes- Global  G29 3 Dec 02 Merge main/preliminary forecast runs  1h 50 min data cut-off  digital filter initialisation instead of incremental update  G30 11 Dec  Tile surface scheme with single tile (MOSES II)  Quikscat (SEAWINDS), BUFR Meteosat winds  correction of time interpolation for pressure pre-processing  G31 11 March 03  shallow convection w<0  target  2 moisture diffusion w>0.2ms -1

9 10/2003 © Crown copyright Reduced data cut-off - Estimated Global worsening 250hPa winds estimated

10 10/2003 © Crown copyright Annual Skill scores

11 10/2003 © Crown copyright Digital filter initialisation -Adam Clayton Perturabation Forecast model used to propagate analysis increment forwards/backwards States digital filtered Initialised PF analysis RH increments restored Interpolate to model resolution

12 10/2003 © Crown copyright Spin up Moisture Spin up Quickly adjusts to initialised state

13 10/2003 © Crown copyright Shallow convection (Alan Grant/ Sean Milton ) -removal of spurious subtropical cloud

14 10/2003 © Crown copyright Targeted moisture diffusion Previously reduced 0.5*timestep to control grid point storms w based diffusion of moisture  2 moisture diffusion locally where w>0.2ms -1 15% fewer grid points with high w

15 10/2003 © Crown copyright Changes- limited area –UK mesoscale  M25 4 Dec 02  Halve weights for MOPS cloud assimilation  retune covariances  M26 18 Mar 03  Reduced latent heat nudging  Introduce AMSU  target  2 moisture diffusion w>1.0 ms -1  European LAM -  Dec 02 introduced forecast only 06/18UTC  Aug 03with data assimilation

16 10/2003 © Crown copyright Dec 02 data assimilation: retuned covariances reduced weight to MOPS cloud

17 10/2003 © Crown copyright Reduced Latent Heat Nudging controlupgrade

18 10/2003 © Crown copyright Reduced Latent Heat Nudging control upgrade

19 10/2003 © Crown copyright AMSU impact WithoutWith

20 10/2003 © Crown copyright European Model 20km, 38 levels Introduced Dec 02 semi-operational (06/18UTC) Data assimilation from 12 Aug Lateral bc & initial data => met.no Plan : 4 runs /day, 50 levels Q2/ km resolution Q4/ /70 levels Q2/2005

21 10/2003 © Crown copyright

22 10/2003 © Crown copyright Norway Co-operation 3km resolution European model analysis & lateral bc met.no running semi- operational from July 03 –from 10km Hirlam –improved land/sea mask –improved orography

23 10/2003 © Crown copyright Norway 3km

24 10/2003 © Crown copyright High res orography influence on precipitation

25 10/2003 © Crown copyright High resolution - JCMM Peter Clark, Humphrey Lean, Richard Forbes

26 10/2003 © Crown copyright

Timetable Installation Sep 02 Oct 02 Nov 02 Dec 02 Jan 03 Feb 03 Mar 03 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 03 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03 Date Bracknell SX-6 1 node system Upgrade: 4 nodes Front end Move to Exeter T3E-A Move to Exeter 02/09-06/10 T3E-B Move to Exeter 17/06-22/07 Exeter SX-6(B) 15 node system Exeter SX-6(A) 15 node system Acceptance tests

28 10/2003 © Crown copyright Met Office Networks FC Switch Mirrored filesystems User filesystems FibreChannel Front End 12xIA64 Gigabit Ethernet The Bits NODE (8 CPUs) IXS (Interconnect) IXS

29 10/2003 © Crown copyright Plans Port to SX6 - Operational March 2004 Add stratosphere to Global, Euro-,UK models –50 levels, 2Q/2004 Global 4D-var 4Q/ km European model 4Q/2004 Global 40km, 60 L 2Q/2005 European 60/70 levels 2Q/2005 4km UK 4Q/2005

30 10/2003 © Crown copyright Incremental 4D-Var

31 10/2003 © Crown copyright The PF (Perturbation Forecast) Model PF model is linearization of the full model (non hydrostatic) with some small terms omitted. Simplified linear physics. Predicts evolution of finite perturbations with respect to a basic state. It is not TL (tangent linear) to any particular model. More flexibility and allows cost saving approximations. Avoids problems with linearizing semi-Lagrangian interpolation and solver for elliptic equation Adjoint of PF model coded explicitly.

32 10/2003 © Crown copyright Trial 4D-Var System Trial suites with single or multiple outerloops at N144/N108, tests at N48/N48 Time window T-3 to T+3, obs used at nearest timestep and processed as for 3D-Var with high res, time interpolated fc for innovation Low resolution trajectory interpolated from high resolution fc, available every timestep PF adiabatic plus momentum mixing PF initialization

33 10/2003 © Crown copyright 12UTC 31 Dec hour fc - analysis of mean sea level pressure Rick Rawlins, Adam Clayton, DingMin Li etal 3D-Var 4D-Var

34 10/2003 © Crown copyright Plans Complete development of variable resolution multiple- outerloop, test more physics Global 4D-Var operational 2004 Complete development of limited area version Develop ability to assimilate cloud and precipitation European 12km Lam 4D-Var 2005 Physics —new gravity wave drag —new convection —new cloud (prognostic cloud and condensate)