Status of TF HTAP Work Plan Co-Chairs Terry Keating, PhDFrank Dentener, PhD U.S. EPAEC JRC 14 September 2015

Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAP As Numbered in Convention Work Plan Work Plan Emissions & Projections Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling Model/Observation & Process Evaluation Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate Impact of Climate Change on Pollution Papers & Reports Data Network & Analysis Tools > 35 Work Packages, each with a volunteer leader.

1.6.7 Papers & Reports Special Issue of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Global and regional assessment of intercontinental transport of air pollution: results from HTAP, AQMEII and MICS Accepting submissions until 1 December 2016 Edited by Frank Dentener (JRC), Stefano Galmarini (JRC), Christian Hogrefe (USEPA), Greg Carmichael (UIowa), and Kathy Law (LATMOS). Open to all publications related to the intercontinental transport of air pollution and providing answers to the “HTAP Science Questions” What fraction of air pollution can be attributed to contemporary anthropogenic regional emissions sources versus extra-regional, non-anthropogenic, or legacy sources of pollution? What is the contribution of each fraction to impacts on human health, ecosystems and climate change? How sensitive are regional pollution levels and related impacts to changes in regional versus extra-regional emission sources? How will the contributions of the fractions and their sensitivities change in the future as a result of expected air pollution abatement efforts or climate change? How do the availability, costs and impacts of additional emission abatement options compare across different regions?

1.6.1 Emissions & Projections ACCEPTED, HTAP Special Issue, 2015, basis for HTAP SR calculations

1.6.1 Emissions & Projections TF HTAP and TF IAM Discussion of scenarios Experts from emerging countries Benchmark scenarios Costs Shared conclusions: Scenarios illustrate/evaluate benefits of a cooperative hemispheric approach towards abating air pollution as compared to isolated national or regional approaches.

1.6.1 Emissions & Projections Benchmark Scenarios IIASA leveraging EU-funded projects - continuous process 3 scenarios with explicit levels of air pollution control: No Further Control, Current Legislation, Maximum Technologically Feasible Reductions One additional scenario based on IEA 450 ppm climate mitigation measures in Energy sector - August 2015 ECLIPSEv5

Section B3: EMEP draft Assessment Report (Z. Klimont, ECLIPSEv5a) Emissions & Projections REF-CLE CLIM-CLE REF-MFR Regional development of emissions NOx: diverging growth between emerging countries, and Europe, North America CH4: “Climate” scenario: only energy REF-MFR shows also emission reduction potential in other sectors Important for ozone. Global Europe N. Am. E. Asia S. Asia Rest of WorldL

1.6.2 Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling Section B3: EMEP draft Assessment Report (O. Wild) REF-CLE CLIM-CLE REF-MFR Regional ozone response – based on HTAP1 CTM results Europe: 2 ppb O 3 decrease 4 ppb decrease in summer. Mainly driven by EU sources, and compensating effects from NA and other regions Europe: CLE O 3 will increase after 2030 driven by CH 4. MFR: scope for O 3 reduction by 8-10 ppb, 60 % driven by external sources and CH 4.

Overall Approach: Use global and regional simulations of to evaluate against observations and to contribute to the quantification of parameterized S/R relationships. Use parameterized S/R relationships to estimate impacts of future strategies. Definition of Source/Receptor Regions World divided into 16 Regions (60 sub-regions) 7 priority regions: North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine, Middle East Model experiments: components: CH 4, NO x, CO, VOC, aerosol-(precursor) sectors: Transport; Power/Industry; Residential; Other, Fires/Dust Global models: ca. 10 Regional models: collaboration with AQMEII (US-EU)and MICS-Asia Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling

Status of HTAP2 Submissions: Base Simulations 24 models 2008-(2009)-2010 Base simulations Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling

Status of HTAP2 Submissions: 2010 Sensitivity Runs Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling Sparse matrix Ca. 5 models with relatively complete simulation sets

Ongoing work AQMEII-HTAP: North America and Europe modelling exercises NA & EU regional scale model exercise based on HTAP global set up 19 modelling groups from NA and EU participating Boundary conditions for base case (2008 and 2010) provided by ECMWF Complementary emission data (biogenics, forest fires) Base case simulation (2010) and sensitivity simulations started Monitoring data already gathered and available for the evaluation of model simulations over both continents Operational evaluation of model results expected started Expected results : Comparison Global Models and Regional scale Models vs observations Ensemble analysis of results for base case and scenarios, what is driving air pollution? Better basis for impact studies regarding LRT. Contribution to reports and HTAP special issue (3 papers submitted) Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling

AQMEII 3 – delivery status Institute gas phase aerosol precip chem ozoneson des metAERONET AERONET PROFILES MOZAIC gridded conc gridded dep gridded emissions BASE CASE US EPAUS3_SMOKE_bas xxxxxxxxxxx ITUTR1_MACC_bas xxxxxxxxxxx AarhusDK1_HTAP_bas xxxxxxxxxxx Univ MurciaES1_MACC_bas xxxxxxxxxx Kings CollegeUK1_MACC_bas xxxxx INERIS/CIEMATFRES1_MACC_bas xxxxx x TNONL1_MACC_bas xx xx x xxx Univ L'AquilaIT2_MACC_bas xxxxxxxxxx RSEIT1_MACC_bas xx x x Ricardo-AEAUK2_MACC_bas xxx x xx HZGDE1_SMOKE_bas xx xx x FMIFI1_MACC_bas xxxx xxxxxx Univ HertfordUK3_MACC_bas xx xx xxxxx HZG-EDGARDE1_MACC_bas xx xx x x EnvironUS1_SMOKE_Bas SCENARIO GLO Univ L'AQUILAIT2_MACC_glo xxxxxxx xxx Kings CollegeUK1_MACC_GLO xx AarhusDK1_HTAP_GLO xxxxxxxxxxx AarhusDK1_HTAP_GLO xxxxxxxxxxx US EPAUS3_SMOKE_GLO xxxxxxxxxx FMIFI1_MACC_GLO xxxxxxxxxx INERIS/CIEMATFRES1_HTAP_GLO RSEIT1_MACC_GLO xxx x EnvironUS1_SMOKE_GLO SCENARIO NAM EAS EUR AarhusDK1_HTAP_EUR xxxxxxxxxxx US EPAUS3_SMOKE_EAS xxxxxxxxxx FMIFI1_MACC_EUR xxxxxxxxxx AarhusDK1_HTAP_NAM xxxxxxxxxxx US EPA US3_SMOKE_NA M xxxxxxxxxx EnvironUS1_SMOKE_EAS INERIS/CIEMATFRES1_HTAP_EUR contribution to North America, the contribution to Europe

Mean Square Error (ppb 2 ) of the spectral components of the AQMEII3 modelling systems (spatial average). The full time series of ozone mixing ratio is decomposed into four components: -Long term (> 21 days) -Synoptic (2.5 to 21 days) -Diurnal (12 h to 2.5 days -Intra-day (< 12 h) For each components the MSE is broken down to its parts: -Bias (bias) -Variance (var) -Covariance (mMSE) Mean Square Error (ppb 2 ) of the spectral components of the AQMEII3 modelling systems (spatial average). The full time series of ozone mixing ratio is decomposed into four components: -Long term (> 21 days) -Synoptic (2.5 to 21 days) -Diurnal (12 h to 2.5 days -Intra-day (< 12 h) For each components the MSE is broken down to its parts: -Bias (bias) -Variance (var) -Covariance (mMSE) Error Apportionment in AQMEII Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling

“Modeling Air Quality from Global to Regional Scales” Boulder, Colorado, May 2015 HTAP2 Model Evaluation Workshop Western States Air Quality Modeling Conference Monday TuesdayWednesday ThursdayFriday Overlap was intended to provide opportunities for: Western US state air quality managers to hear about HTAP2 and related activities HTAP2 participants to hear air quality managers questions, which can help focus our analyses to be more policy-relevant Model/Observation & Process Evaluation

North American Inflow Analysis: CALNEX enhanced measurements May-June 2010 (WP3.2) 5 Surface sites: trace gases, aerosols 11 radar wind profilers 2 afternoon rawinsondes sites 2 Tall Towers: carbon cycle gases NOAA P3 aircraft: gases & aerosols Research Vessel Atlantis: gases, aerosols & rawinsondes NOAA Twin Otter: ozone lidar 6 daily ozonesonde sites Aerosol lidar at Trinidad Head Model/Observation & Process Evaluation From Owen Cooper (NOAA)

GEOS-Chem Model/Observation & Process Evaluation Example of model simulations (GEOS-Chem Adjoint) compared to ozonesonde observations (from Owen Cooper) ----median--

2/25/14 From Min Huang

Meetings and Milestones 2015: TFIAM / TF HTAP Workshop on Global Emissions Scenarios, Vienna, February 2015 Modeling Air Quality from Global to Regional Scales, Boulder, May 2015 HTAP outreach at Milano World Expo: Sustainable Agriculture and Air Pollution, June 2015 Inputs to EMEP Assessment Report (section B3) Analysis-Focused Web Conferences (remainder of 2015 into 2016) 2016: Workshop on Health and Ecosystem Impacts of Future Air Pollution Scenarios, IASS, Potsdam, February 2016 Exploring additional workshops: Joint workshop with AMAP? Session at IGAC Breckenridge? Regional South Asia, East Asia HTAP Fall science conference ACP Special Issue Deadline December 2016 Summary of findings to EMEP

Extra’s 2/11/14

CLE emissions