Todd Moss, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Scott Standley Why Doesn’t Africa get More Portfolio Investment? Frontier Stock Markets, Firm Size, and Asset Allocations of Global Emerging Market Funds
Why relevant? Finance & development debate Push vs Pull determinants Inform efforts to promote cap flows Market failure? Market works?
Frontier equity markets 15 mkts SA dominates Others small, low liquidity Few large blocks available But not unusual
Log market capitalization vs. Log GDP
Log value traded vs. Log market capitalization
Regional Funds
GEM fund investment,
South Africa GEM investment, (3 year moving averages)
GEM investment in Frontier SSA ( , 3yr moving averages)
Share of GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization No country with market cap under $50 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment Market cap = $50 bn
Share of GEM investment vs. Log value traded Value traded = $10 bn No country with value traded under $10 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment
Log GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization
Log GEM investment vs. Log value traded
Share of GEM funds vs. Log market capitalization
>90% of funds and >$150 bn market cap Outgrown asset class <10% of funds and <$20 bn market cap
Share of GEM funds vs. Log value traded
>90% of funds and >$ bn value traded Outgrown asset class <10% of funds and <$2 bn value traded
Why are SSA firms small? Cost Structures, Firm-Level Average by Country (Eifert, Gelb and Ramachandran, 2005)
Why are SSA firms small? Gross and Net Value Added per Worker, $ Adjusted (Eifert, Gelb and Ramachandran, 2005)
Why are SSA firms small? Percentage of Annual Revenues Lost in Unofficial Payments (World Bank Investment Climate Assessments, various)
Conclusions Target regional funds Leverage JSE Focus on supply constraints/barriers to firm entry and growth Privatization? Private equity? SME finance?
END END
Log GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization
Share of GEM investment vs. Log market capitalization Market cap = $50 bn No country with market cap under $50 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment
Log GEM investment vs. Log GDP
Share of GEM funds vs. Log GDP
>90% of funds and >$200 bn GDP 10%-90% of funds and $60-$200 bn GDP Outgrown asset class <10% of funds and <$60 bn GDP
Share of GEM investment vs. Log GDP GDP = $100 bn No country with GDP under $100 bn receives more than 1% of total GEM investment