Future climate change scenario modeling of an invasive weed its natural enemy Abhishek Mukherjee And Matthew Thom

The Problem Introductions of exotic species will continue to occur in the future. Exotic species already established will change their range. Climate change, particularly warming trends in the US, will allow northward expansion of invasive species. Biological control agents of invasive species may move northward, but may be limited by other environmental factors such as freezing or extreme cold periods.

The Question How will invasive species ranges change with future climate change? – How much will a weed increase its range northward in the US? How will the distribution of natural enemies change with future climate change? – Specifically, will the natural enemy of a specific weed follow the move northward?

The Players The tortoise beetle, Gratiana boliviana The invasive pestThe natural enemy The tropical soda apple (TSA), Solanum viarum

What do we know about TSA? Current distribution

What about the tortoise beetle? ? The freezing line, or where it annually freezes, is considered to be a northward boundary for G. boliviana

Predictions The tropical soda apple will expand northward as the US increases in temperature The natural enemy tortoise beetle will not move as far north Consequences: – The current biological control using G. boliviana will not be effective north of the freezing line – The tropical soda apple will become a significant invasive in new areas

Methods Use Maxent and IPCC 2007 climate models to predict the future distribution of the tropical soda apple and G. boliviana Overlay and evaluate future predictions

Data Needs Distributional data for TSA Distributional data for G. boliviana IPCC 2007 climate projections – Multiple scenarios Freezing line data – Current and predicted change

Expected Outcomes The tropical soda apple will extend farther north G. boliviana will not extend as far northward Other possibilities?