Proposed Modification to Method for Determining Reasonable In-Season Demand for the Surface Water Coalition: July 1 Prediction of Reasonable In-Season Demand Presented to the SWC Methodology Technical Working Group by Matt Anders February 19, 2015 Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408

Methodology Update Wildman Decision 2014 (pg 40) Revise the April forecast in mid-July Proposed change July 1 Forecast supply Calculate remaining Reasonable In-Season Demand (RISD) July 15 Issue updated order with forecast supply and expected shortfall

Current Method Results Change in demand shortfall calculation from July 1 to November 1 Shortfall = Water Supply - Demand A&BAFRD2BIDMilnerMinidokaNSCCTFCCSWSI ,861-88, ,710-8, ,738-17, , ,852-33,391-9,876-39,110-19,625-26, ,6977,495-7,07912, ,580-34, ,982-2,06311,0474,74143, , ,392-57,500-25,3564,963-25, , , Units = AF “-” indicates demand shortfall decreased

Current Method Predict remaining RISD using the average of the monthly baseline demand for the 2006/2008 baseline year. Can we use data from the current irrigation year to predict the remaining RISD? Month 06/08 Monthly Baseline Demand (ac-ft) Actual Monthly Demand (ac-ft) Cumulative Actual Demand (ac-ft) Actual Monthly CWN (ac-ft)PE Monthly RISD (ac-ft) Cummulative RISD (ac-ft) Apr7741,765 1, ,294 May6,75510,54612,3114, ,90110,195 Jun9,76812,36724,6787, ,95423,150 Jul12, ,70935,858 Aug9, ,46445,323 Sep5, ,24250,565 Oct1, ,61952,185 Table from “RISD & DS Calculator” tab in the “DS RISD Calculator_2014.xlsx” Excel spreadsheet.

RISD Plots Plots for all SWC Members located in “RISD Summary” tab of “DS RISD Calculator_2014.xlsx”.

Predict RISD Using Regression Used RStudio to test various regression combinations: Diversions Evapotranspiration (ETr) Growing Degree Days (GGD) Precipitation First day of storage use by TFCC Crop Water Need (CWN) Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Regression did not produce robust prediction of RISD. Data and R scripts used are located in the “Regression” folder.

RISD Plots Plots for all SWC Members located in “RISD Summary” tab of “DS RISD Calculator_2014.xlsx”.

Proposed Method: Predict RISD Using Analog Year Tested in RStudio to determine if cluster analysis would help identify analog year(s). Different methods produced similar results Hierarchical Agnes Ward Non-Hierarchical PAM K-Means R script of testing (cluster_testing.R ) is located in the “Cluster” folder

Proposed Method: Predict RISD Using Analog Year Clustering in RStudio: Sum of Squared Error (SSE) to get an estimate of the natural clusters for use in K-Means. R script (cluster.R ) and process description (R_cluster_notes.docx) are located in the “Cluster” folder

Proposed Method: Predict RISD Using Analog Year Clustering in RStudio: K-Means.

Proposed Method: Predict RISD Using Analog Year Clustering in RStudio: Cluster Results The first cluster solution that puts all the data points into a cluster generally produces the best results for predicting RISD This can cause adjacent data points to be grouped with further away data points.

Proposed Method: Predict RISD Using Analog Year Predict RISD in Excel: Exclude abnormal years where after July 1 (unless the abnormal is the only analog): The cumulative RISD deviates from the general trend of the data and crosses the lines for multiple other years. There was an abnormal climate event that affected RISD & 2014 AFRD2 Milner NSCC TFCC 2014 A&B BID Minidoka

Proposed Method: Predict RISD Using Analog Year

Predict RISD in Excel: Calculate predicted remaining RISD Use clusters select analog year(s) Result = average RISD used in analog year(s) Enter AnalogProj-Aug 1Proj-Sept 1Proj-Oct 1Proj-Nov 1 1-JulYears , Avg. Analog Actual %Error2%0%-3% Analog-Actual

Comparison of Method Results Error (AF) in July 1 RSID - Cluster Method A&BAFRD2BIDMilnerMinidokaNSCCTFCC ,736-4,2072,166-4,632-14,429-21, ,240-5,563-2,166-8, ,812-32, ,0832, ,530-45,488-35, ,10233,780-20,0282,034-19,93354,27785, ,35588,451-15,8375,217-11,265121,595221,373 % Error - RSID from July 1 to November 1 - Cluster Method A&BAFRD2BIDMilnerMinidokaNSCCTFCC 20102% -2%5%-2%-1%-2% 20110%-5%-2%-4%-3%-10%-3% 20120%-5%1%0%2%-4%-3% %8%-7%4%-5%5%8% 20142%24%-5%12%-3%14%23%

Comparison of Method Results Error (AF) in July 1 RSID - Cluster Method A&BAFRD2BIDMilnerMinidokaNSCCTFCC ,736-4,2072,166-4,632-14,429-21, ,240-5,563-2,166-8, ,812-32, ,0832, ,530-45,488-35, ,10233,780-20,0282,034-19,93354,27785, ,35588,451-15,8375,217-11,265121,595221,373 Sqrt of Residual Sum of Squares (RSS) Error (AF) in July 1 RSID - 06/08 BLY A&BAFRD2BIDMilnerMinidokaNSCCTFCC ,958-15,090-1,1201,833-4,81838,65214, ,534-3,583-9,6362,978-14,70274,75740, ,3438,971-4,9853,110-9,66372,78864, ,562-31,4993, ,255-33, ,482-78,723-10,319-6,210-24, , ,200 Sqrt of Residual Sum of Squares (RSS)

Information on Website Analog Folder Remaining RISD Calculations: Predict_RISD.xlsx Cluster Folder R script for cluster method: cluster.R R script for cluster method testing: cluster_testing.R Process notes for cluster method: R_cluster_notes.docx RISD Data for clustering in R: RISD_July_1.csv Loose Files This PowerPoint:CDL_MidYear_RISD.pptx RISD Calculator for 2014:DS RISD Calculator_2014.xlsx

Information on Website Regression Folder - All R script for regression testing: RISD2.R Data for regression in R: v1_2000_2013.csv & v1_wet.csv Regression Folder - TFCC R script for regression testing: Test1.R Data for regression in R: TFCC_for_R_v1.csv TFCC_for_R_v2.csv TFCC_for_R_v2_aug1_colinearity.xlsx TFCC_for_R_v2_july1_colinearity.xlsx TFCC_for_R_v2_sept1_colinearity.xlsx TFCC_for_R_v2b.csv TFCC_for_R_v2c.csv Regression Folder - CWN R script for regression testing:cwn_Test2.R Data for regression in R:TFCC_for_R_v4.csv

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