National energy balances without statistical differences Statistics Netherlands, W. Tinbergen

General form of energy balance ___________________________ Top down (whole country = black box) Bottom up (sum of individual consumptions) Statistical difference ( top down minus bottom up )

Role of statistical difference in CO 2 -calculations _____________________ IPCC reference approach: - statistical difference included Sectoral approach: – stat diff in first instance not included (added afterwards as a quasi-sector)

Role of statistical difference in calculations on energy _____________________ Two figures for national energy consumption instead of one Energy conservation calculations by sector not consistent with calculations for the country as a whole

Effects of zero statistical difference _____________________ CO 2 : simpler definitions reference approach consistent with sectoral approach Energy balances: balances simplified, energy conservation calculations more consistent.

Working group of statisticians Task Develop production process for energy balances without statistical differences, starting with 1999 Make revised figures without statistical differences for and for 1990 (base year for Kyoto-protocol and for energy conservation studies).

Realisation of task statistical differences were analysed in detail for most differences solutions were found by improving quality : – more complete or better input data – better insertion in the energy balance

Examples underestimated exports solid fuels, oil products oil products in petrochemical industry non-energetic use instead of energetic use incomplete information on consumption of gas oil inland shipping, agriculture, construction industry

Results about 70% of the original statistical differences eliminated by more or better input data remaining 30% eliminated by best estimates of statisticians

Recalculation of original balances Balance 1990 needed for Kyoto protocol Calculation complicated by: customs regulations on petroleum products conversion of old branch code to NACE new software / data storage system

Recalculation of original balances Original balances have been recalculated completely The resulting sets of tables have the same form and detail as the sets of tables for 1999, 2000, 2001 etc.