CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT IN COPENHAGEN Prof. Milind Kandlikar, Liu Institute, UBC

Rich and Poor in the World Today

What is Development?  Improvement in Human Wellbeing  HDI: Per capita Income, Health, Education  Technology changes the structure of the economy  Ag -> Manufacturing -> Services  Rural to Urban  Energy Use Increases  Increasing Energy use  Greater efficiency of use but…  Greater emissions of carbon

Who is Responsible for Carbon Emissions? Current vs. Historical

Who is Responsible for Carbon Emissions? Per Capita Emissions But is there a “Germany” within China?

Meanwhile….

Emission Pathways for < 2 C by 2050

Copenhagen Objectives Set up Global Emissions Target with EU and US on board Price Carbon (Taxes, Permits, REDD) Engage BRIC countries Vulnerable countries and adaptation

Diverse Developing Country Response Those opposing binding targets Very Large Rapidly Industrializing - China, India Medium-sized emitters with large forests - Brazil and Indonesia Those pushing for binding targets  Existentially Threatened (Small Island States)  Small and Impoverished ~50 countries with lower emissions than UBC (e.g. Niger, Mali, Rwanda) The Rest - varying emissions and vulnerabilities

What to Expect in Copenhagen?  A binding agreement with US on board?  Concessions from Large Emitters  China’s plan to reduce carbon intensity by 45% is a start  India’s plan to reduce intensity by 25%.  “Make the Gringo Pay for Forest Preservation”  Brazil and REDD. Tropical Countries.  A market-based framework for Tech. Transfer?  CDM is an utter failure  An Adaptation Fund?  Exhortations by the most vulnerable for action (and aid)  Maldives, Bangladesh, African States

“The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen. The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.”