A FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON WHAT WE CALL “A DISASTER” Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

1. SCOPE FROM 3 CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO STUDIES AFTER A DISASTER TO PREVENTION OF A FUTURE DISASTER THROUGH “BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES”

A DISASTER is the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes,...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.

THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER PEOPLE COMMUNITY RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

EACH CONTINUUM IS LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: IT NEVER ENDS

TWO CONTINUUMS ARE LIKE A CHAIN: THEY HAVE WEAK LINKS

FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS IGNORANCE APATHY DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

CONTINUUM 1: PEOPLE 6 + BILLION ( DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

PEOPLE = DIVERSITY 200 NATIONS AND 6+ BILLION PEOPLE 200 NATIONS AND 6+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN CARIBBEAN BASIN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA SUB-SAHARA AFRICA MEDITER- RANEAN MEDITER- RANEAN ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS ASIA SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE

CONTINUUM 2 : THE COMMUNITY (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) GOVERNMENT DWELLINGS SCHOOLS HEALTH CARE FACILITIES BUSINESSES INFRA- STRUCTURE ETC

CONTINUUM 3: RECURRING EVENTS (OF A DYNAMIC EARTH ) FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ETC.

INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS, WILL A DISASTER OCCUR? THE CP IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY ARE NOT READY WHEN THE INTERSECTION HAPPENS THE CP IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY ARE NOT READY WHEN THE INTERSECTION HAPPENS PEOPLEPEOPLE COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY EVENTSEVENTS PP TT SS OO CP

EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER

LIVING WITH RISK INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DISASTER DECREASED CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

LIVING WITH RISK DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY NO DISASTER THIS TIME CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS FOR POLICIES ON SUSTAINABILITY SECURITY HEALTH CARE …ETC A DISASTER CAUSES FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES POST-DISASTER STUDIES BEST POLICIES BEST PRACTICES DISASTER PREVENTION

TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER PREVENTION EDUCATION: PENETRATE SOCIETY IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS ENABLEMENT OF POLITICAL WILL BUILDING EQUITY AND PENETRATING SOCIETY BUILDING EQUITY AND PENETRATING SOCIETY

POST-DISASTER STUDIES ARE LIKE THE SYSTEM - ANALYSIS PROCEDURES FOUR BLIND PEOPLE WOULD USE TO DESCRIBE AN ELEPHANT

2. FROM POST-DISASTER STUDIES TO NEW KNOWLEDGE THAT CLOSES PRIOR KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFIES WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC,... AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time of the available knowledge BETWEEN organizations, disciplines, and people will always create uncertainties in choices and differences in capability to achieve disaster prevention.

KNOWLEDGE GAPS DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or individuals will always create uncertainties that limit the options for effective disaster prevention.

STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS EXPANDS CAPABILITY IMPROVES DELIVERY MECHANISMS OVERCOMES UNIVERSAL BARRIERS CREATES TURNING POINTS FOR CHANGE INCREASES COMMUNITY DISASTER PREVENTION POST-DISASTER KNOWLEDGE POST-DISASTER KNOWLEDGE

POST DISASTER STUDIES FROM: a) “WHAT HAPPENED” AND b) “WHY IT HAPPENED” TO c) “WHAT CAN BE DONE” TO PREVENT A RECURRENCE?

RECURRING FLOODING Interactions of Planet Earth’s sun, atmosphere, litho- sphere, hydro- sphere, and biosphere cause:  Floods.

INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

HAITI EARTHQUAKE JANUARY 12, 2010

INTERACTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL LITHOSPHERE WITH THE OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE AND THE HYDROSPHERE CAUSE RECURRING TSUNAMIS

TSUNAMI: JAPAN MARCH 12, 2011

TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA DEC. 26, 2004

RECURRING SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, TROPOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE

ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 Alex (H) June 21 Bonnie July 27 Colin Aug 3 Danielle (H) Aug 21 Earl (H) Aug.29 Fiona Aug 30

RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES Planet Earth’s atmospheric- oceanic- lithospheric interactions cause:  Droughts

RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS: INTERACTIONS OF THE CORE, MANTLE, LITHOSPHERE, AND ATMOSPHERE

VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELAND APRIL 14, 2010

3. FROM POST-DISASTER STUDIES TO DISASTER PREVENTION A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF A DISASTER LEADS TO “BEST POLICIES” AND “BEST PRACTICES” TO PREVENT RECURRENCES

FROM KNOWLEDGE T0 PREVENTION RELEVANCE PUBLIC AWARENESS INCREASED UNDERSTANDING POLITICAL ENABLEMENT INCREASED EQUITY BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR BUILDING A CULTURE OF DIS- ASTER PREVENTION

DISASTER PREVENTION Design and Implementation of policies and practices: a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the PEOPLE, and b) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY.

STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY

WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER LEAVE AYTHING TO CHANCE

“BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE) PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)

“BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” MONITORING AND WARNING (KNOW WHEN TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY) DISASTER SCENARIOS (ANTICIPATE WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN, THEN GET READY FOR IT NOW) MONITORING AND WARNING (KNOW WHEN TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY) DISASTER SCENARIOS (ANTICIPATE WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN, THEN GET READY FOR IT NOW)

PEOPLE AND THEIR COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION

READINESS FOR A POSSIBLE DISASTER “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR ACADEMIA FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING CHANNELS INFORMATION NETWORKING CHANNELS ORGANIZATION NETWORKING CHANNELS NO DISASTERS COMMUNITYSTAKEHOLDERS Stratec Consulting