Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 1 Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept.

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Presentation transcript:

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 1 Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center TCC April 2009 Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… GFDN 2009 The GFDN Team Carey Dickerman, FNMOC lead Roger Stocker, FNMOC Isaac Ginnis, URI Morris Bender, GFDL

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 2 Old vs New GFDN: Comparison of Main Features GFDNGF3C Ocean CouplingnonePOM (3-D) Nests½°, 1/6°1/2°, 1/6°, 1/12° Grid domain75 X 75°, 11 X 11° Fixed moving 75 X 75°, 11X 11°, 5 X 5° Fixed moving moving Dissipative HeatingnoneAdded to Core Region MicrophysicsLarge-scale CondensationNCEP Ferrier Upgrade

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 3 ATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE OCEANOCEAN Warm sea surface temperature Cool subsurface temperature Ocean response to hurricane forcing: 1. Vertical mixing/entrainment Wind stress → surface layer currents Current shear → turbulence Turbulent mixing → entrainment of cooler water Sea surface temperature decreases Subsurface temperature increases This is a 1-D (vertical) process from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 4 Cyclonic hurricane vortex ATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE OCEANOCEAN Warm sea surface temperature Cool subsurface temperature Ocean response to hurricane forcing: 2. Upwelling Cyclonic wind stress → divergent surface currents Divergent currents → upwelling Upwelling → cooler water brought to surface This is a 3-D process from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 5 Hurricanes have historically translated in the Gulf of Mexico: < 5 m s -1 73% and < 2 m s -1 16% of the time in the western tropical North Atlantic at < 5 m s -1 62% and < 2 m s -1 12% of the time SST cooling within hurricane inner-core in 3D and 1D ocean models from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 6 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd, 0000 UTC, 2006 Demonstrates Importance of Upwelling for Slow Moving Storm HOUR 0 HOUR D Coupling 3-D Coupling HOUR 0

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 7 Significantly Improved Prediction of Track and Intensity ( Typhoon Cimaron: November 2 nd, 0000 UTC, 2006) 1 3-D OCEAN COUPLING OPERATIONAL GFDN 3 1-D OCEAN COUPLING MAXIMUM WINDS CENTRAL PRESSURE 3-D Coupling

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 8 Northern Indian Ocean - io North Atlantic - al North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp GFDN Forecast Performance: Intensity Forecast Validation against “Old”

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 9 Northern Indian Ocean - io North Atlantic - al North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp GFDN Forecast Performance: Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (ST5D) Validation

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 10 TRACK ERROR (NM) Northern Indian Ocean - io North Atlantic - al North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp GFDN Forecast Performance: Tracks

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 11 IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES ( ) AVERAGE TRACK SKILL AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL from Bender et al., “ Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 12 GFDN STATUS - TODAY Operational on A2 since Oct Atlantic: 3-D Princeton Ocean Model (POM) forecast with GDEM ocean climatology initialization. NOGAPS (NCODA low resolution) SST analysis. Pacific: 1-D POM with 3-D NCODA analysis initialization. NCODA high resolution SST analysis.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 13 GFDN STATUS – June 2009 Adding Asymmetry Factor. DONE. Operational in January. Adding altimetry data assimilation for Atlantic to define Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. DONE Operational in April. With University of Rhode Island, adding POM-3D in the Pacific. Delivery in March. Operational in May.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 14 OVERALL REDUCED INTENSITY ERRORS WITH 3-D COUPLING COMPARED TO 1-D 1-D GFDN 3-D GFDN 1-D GFDN from Bender et al., “ Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 15 REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH 3-D COUPLING OLD GFDN from Bender et al., “ Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 16 ISSUES Joint JTWC / FNOC review of SOPs (in progress) Need an independent review of GFDN upgrades by JTWC. Need to watch GFDL vs GFDN (GFS vs NOGAPS) NOAA has stopped funding for GFDL. FNMOC relies on GFDL/URI developers for maintenance.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Northern Hemisphere Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) 01 August 2008 – 17 September Number of Forecasts 6850

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 18 GFDN DONE BACKUP SLIDES FOLLOW

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 19 Atmospheric Boundary Layer Momentum & KE Flux TurbulenceSea Spray BubblesMomentum & KE Flux Nonbreaking WavesBreaking Waves Wave induced stress  Reynolds stress  (Langmuir) Turbulence Air-Sea Interface Heat & Humidity Flux Airflow separation Intermittency Intermittency of Momentum & KE injection Stokes drift Ocean Boundary Layer Ocean Boundary Layer MORE PHYSICS TO COME TO COME from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Atlantic Non-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) Number of Forecasts from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, Interpolated Model Guidance AVNI – Global Forecast System (GFS) run at NCEP GFDI – GFDL model run at NCEP HWFI – Hurricane WRF run at NCEP NGPI – Navy global model (NOGAPS) run at FNMOC GFNI – GFDL model run at FNMOC EGRI – UK Met Office global model EMXI – ECMWF global model TVCN – Consensus of above models (at least two) AEMI – NCEP GFS ensemble mean

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Eastern North Pacific Non-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) Number of Forecasts from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 22 NCEP COMPARISON: Apples to Oranges The following is from storm AL172008, which was an early November 2008 TC. It's the one AL storm with some history that was forecast by the OPAL OPS GFDN. FORECAST VERIFICATION RESULTS AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE GFDN GFDL #CASES AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE GFDN GFDN GFDL GFDL NCHG NCHG #CASES #CASES

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Western Pacific Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) (UKMet)

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 24 JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr Goal from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 25 JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr Goal from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 26 JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.