NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Change Projections for India and Assessment of the Associated Agricultural and Human Health Impacts (A NATCOM Project) Principal Investigators K. Rupa Kumar and K. Krishna Kumar Co-Principal Investigators Nayana R. Deshpande and Savita K. Patwardhan Project Assistant V. Prasanna

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (An Autonomous Institute under Dept. of Science & Technology, Govt. of India) Established 1962 Established 1962 Initially part of IMD Initially part of IMD Autonomous in 1971 Autonomous in Scientists 100 Scientists Focus on Monsoon Research Focus on Monsoon Research Climate Diagnostics and Modelling Climate Diagnostics and Modelling

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Main Activities Proposed Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over India Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over India V&A in the Indian Agricultural Sector V&A in the Indian Agricultural Sector Climate and Malaria Climate and Malaria High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Indian Summer Monsoon Flow

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Monsoon Variability IntraseasonalInterannualDecadal/CenturyMillennia & longer Onset/withdrawal; Active and break- monsoon phases; day oscillations; severe rainstorms Droughts and floods Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods Changes in the areal extents of monsoons Atmospheric variability; tropical- midlatitude interactions; Soil moisture; Sea surface temperatures Atmospheric interactions; El Niño/ Southern Oscillation; Top layers of tropical oceans; Snow cover; Land surface characteristics Monsoon circulation variations; Deep ocean changes; Greenhouse gases increase; Human activities; Biospheric changes; Volcanic dust Global climate excursions; Ice ages; Warm epochs; Sun-earth geometry Factors Features

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation The Stability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall ( ) (Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Schematic view of sea surface temperature and tropical rainfall in the the equatorial Pacific Ocean during normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions....

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Global Impacts of El Nino

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Scenarios: What are they ? A climate scenario is a plausible representation of future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Uncertainties in Climate Scenarios Specifying alternative emissions futures Specifying alternative emissions futures Uncertainties in converting emissions to concentrations Uncertainties in converting emissions to concentrations Uncertainties in converting concentrations to radiative forcing Uncertainties in converting concentrations to radiative forcing Uncertainties in modelling the climate response to a given radiative forcing Uncertainties in modelling the climate response to a given radiative forcing Uncertainties in converting model response into inputs for impact studies Uncertainties in converting model response into inputs for impact studies

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate System

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Models Simplified mathematical representation of the Earth’s climate system Simplified mathematical representation of the Earth’s climate system Skill depends on the level of our understanding of the physical, geophysical, chemical and biological processes that govern the climate system Skill depends on the level of our understanding of the physical, geophysical, chemical and biological processes that govern the climate system Substantial improvements over the last two decades Substantial improvements over the last two decades Sub-models : atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, biosphere Sub-models : atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, biosphere Typical Resolution of global models (atmosphere) : Horizontal km; Vertical – 1 km Typical Resolution of global models (atmosphere) : Horizontal km; Vertical – 1 km Small-scale processes : Parameterization Small-scale processes : Parameterization Coupled models (e.g., atmosphere-ocean) Coupled models (e.g., atmosphere-ocean) Sensitivity studies/Future projections Sensitivity studies/Future projections Internal variability/Ensemble runs Internal variability/Ensemble runs

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation IS92A Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over India Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmopshere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for compared to the baseline period of are presented in the following figures for the Indian region. The simulations of eight models used are: 1.Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model. 2.Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model. 3.Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model. 4.Deutsches Kilma Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. 5.Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. 6.Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3) 7.Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. 8.National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model.

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Global Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Patterns simulated by 9 coupled AOGCMs

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Monsoon Precipitation Change (% of as compared to period) due to Greenhouse Gas Increase

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Annual Surface Temperatur e Change (Deg. C in compared to period) due to Greenhouse Gas Increase

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Temperature over the Indian Region in 8 Coupled Models

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficien technologies A2: A very heterogenous world with an emphasis on familiy values and local traditions B1: A world of „dematerialization“ and introduction of clean technologies B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios 8 state-of-the-art climate models run until 2100 with various emission scenarios

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation SRES CO2 Emissions

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Predicted precipitation change Source: IPCC 2001 Cubasch

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Predicted precipitation change Source: IPCC 2001 Cubasch

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation

CCSR SRES A2 Scenario of Monsoon Rainfall in the 21 st Century

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation CCSR SRES A2 Scenario of Annual Temperature in the 21 st Century

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Signal in Indian Agriculture

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Kharif Rice Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Winter Wheat Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Relation between Indian Rice Production and the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Global Oceans

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Kharif Groundnut Production and its relation to Indian Rainfall

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation State-wise Food Production and its Relation to Sub- divisional Rainfall

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Impacts on Malaria

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation

Impact of Antecedent Pre-Monsoon Rains on the Incidence of Malaria in India

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation

The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models (HadRM2/HadRM3) High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea- surface boundaries by output from HadCM High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea- surface boundaries by output from HadCM Formulation identical to HadAM Formulation identical to HadAM Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° One-way nesting One-way nesting Joint Indo-UK Collaborative research programme on climate change impacts in India Joint Indo-UK Collaborative research programme on climate change impacts in India Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region (the output is being currently analysed by IITM) Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region (the output is being currently analysed by IITM) HadRM3 installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM HadRM3 installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Model Orographies in GCM and RCM

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Observed and Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (GCM vs. RCM)

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Observed and Simulated (GCM and RCM) Surface Air Temperature over India

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Indian Summer Monsoon Simulations by HadRM2

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Indian Annual Surface Temperature Simulations by HadRM2

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Simulation of No. of Rainy Days in the Hadley Center Regional Model and likely future changes in

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Intensity (mm/day) of Rainfall per rainy day and likely future changes in

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Impact of Climate Change on the daily Extreme Rainfall (cm) amounts in India

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Acknowledgements Acknowledgements We wish to place on record our sincere thanks to UNFCC/GEF/UNDP/MOEF/GOI for necessary financial support to undertake this project under the India’s initial National Communication (NATCOM) being co-ordinated through Winrock International India, New Delhi