NWS Future Concept of Operations National HIC Meeting January 30, 2006

Outline Background / history Overview of CONOPS Prototype Plan Role of RFCs

CONOPS Teams NWS CONOPS Initiative Team - August 2005 –Developing an organizational wide concept of operations for the digital era. Team report (12/15/2005): – CONOPS Prototype Team - February 2006 –Develop an implementation plan sufficient for NWSEO I&I CONOPS Prototype Plan (11/17/2006) –

(1) CONOPS: The Case for Change 1.To provide the best service possible, we must adapt. 2.We must be more efficient with our resources. 3.We must capitalize on future opportunities. 4. We need to posture ourselves for budget uncertainties.

(1) CONOPS Philosophy Principles Information and Services Technology, Data, and Tools People Customers and Partners 8. We will ensure that all national centers and field offices have the tools and technology necessary to efficiently and effectively produce the digital environmental information repository (one stop shopping portal) 9. We will routinely verify and quality assure the digital environmental information we produce and make these verification data readily available to forecasters and managers to ensure resources are used most efficiently and effectively. The verification system should be tailored to include the information that lets us make resource decisions about services for high-impact events. 10. We will efficiently and fully leverage the investment in numerical forecast guidance and ensure that this guidance is used by field offices. 11. We will facilitate the rapid transfer of new science and quality assured technology into operations. 12. When designing systems, adaptability of technology is a criteria that is as important as initial cost 1. We will ensure weather sensitive decision makers have ready Market 4. The degree of consistency and accuracy of our information corresponds to the value they provide. 5. We will provide information that includes estimates of uncertainty, and is widely recognized as credible and reliable. 6. Enable reliable access to information and services in formats which meet customer needs. 7. To the greatest extent that resources permit, we will measure the value of the services we provide in support of high-impact events. We acknowledge that not all aspects of the value of high impact services are amenable to objective measurement. Organizational Design 2. We believe that proximity to our customers and partners is key to achieving and maintaining the quality of our information and services. 3. The credibility of the NWS is a primary asset that will be maintained at all costs. access to high value environmental information. 13. We recognize the unique needs of the individual employee. 14. We concentrate the efforts of our people where their expertise and effort allows them to add value. 15. We will dedicate resources to leadership training and succession planning. 16. Operating units should be resourced according to mission requirements. 17. Maintain a distributed concept of services where local offices are responsible for making resource decisions. 18. Regardless of where the environmental information is produced, accountability resides with the part of the organization from which the information is delivered. 19. Operating units are clustered by partnership opportunities, climatology, and ecosystems. 20. National and regional service program leads should be located at operating units in areas where the program is active

(1) CONOPS Future State: 2015 ServicesInformation Technology, Data, and Tools People Customers Partners (1) Enhanced user decision support especially for high impact events (2) Provider of a wide spectrum of improved environmental information services designed for societal needs (3) Producer of seamless, high quality, digital information on demand (1) Effective and adaptable use of emerging science and technology, including timely transition and quality assurance (2) Communications allows full transfer of information to wherever it is needed in the agency (3) Calibrated, reliable, and routinely verified national digital environmental information repository (4) An interface that allows the decision maker to quickly personalize information from a national digital environmental information repository High quality of work life: (1) Our people’s efforts are concentrated where their expertise allows them to demonstrably add value (2) More flexible work schedules (3) Appropriate and targeted training (4) Effective leadership at all levels Expanded support to weather sensitive decision makers, including those in emergency management, public health, aerospace, aviation, and water resources. Market (1) Local, regional, national and international decision makers, including other government agencies (1) Clearly explained and leveraged partnerships across the weather enterprise that benefit both parties (2) We partner with other NOAA elements in a one-NOAA context (1) Ecosystem information (2) Probabilistic forecasts (3) Sensible weather forecasts and warnings (4) Environmental forecasts to aid in the protection of the nation’s natural resources (5) High resolution information for high impact events (1) Our premier reason for being is to provide information to decision makers who take action to protect lives and property (2) We are the recognized source of unbiased, scientifically valid, quality assured environmental information (3) We are the primary source of weather information for the government. Identity

(1) Clustered Peer Vision An Extension of the Ops Philosophy - focuses NWS resources on high-impact events - while providing routine services - in a highly collaborative process, - optimizing modern science and technology - composed of functionally staffed field offices - at current facilities (with modifications). An effective field structure for NOAA’s National Weather Service consisting of a highly trained workforce, which...

(1) Key Operational Shifts Phenomenon Based Forecasts Product Based Services Coordination Technology Tied National Weather Service Reactive Evolution Static Resource Allocation Weather-centric Impact Based Forecasts Decision Support Information Collaboration Technology Enabled Full Partnering Weather Enterprise Proactive continuous Improvement Dynamic Resource Allocation Earth System Science FromTo

(1) Key Cultural Shifts Running an Operation “My Forecast” “My Office” Consistency vs. Accuracy “My weather is harder than yours” “Only I can forecast for my area” Cranking out the work Quantity of work Trusted individual technology Leading Change “Our Forecast” “Our NWS” Consistency and Accuracy “I value your climate, too” “I trust you to make the best decisions for our cluster” Knowing where and when to add value Quality of work Shared, integrated technology FromTo

(1)Clustered Peers Concept Basic Elements 1. National Centers 2. Mission-Staffed (Tailored) Peer Forecast Offices 3. Cluster Support Offices Note: All 122 forecast offices issue forecasts and warnings, QA data, maintain equipment, conduct outreach and science infusion

Team Progress February April May March JuneJuly August Recommend Cluster Criteria Recommend Prototype Clusters Provide Cluster Prototype Plan* Start Online Testing Initiate OSIP Initiate Team Activities Solicit Input 2006 February 28 May 2 June 13 March 30 September May 1 Run Lab August 1 August 14 September 11

Prototype Cluster Criteria As presented at the May 2 Board VTC Primary Considerations: Common Forecast Challenges Physiographic Boundaries Involvement by all 4 CONUS regions End-state cluster configuration dependent on prototype findings Current AWIPS Architecture Restriction ~100,000 grid points Other Considerations: Partnership opportunities, Transportation, Economy, Population, Team work, Service Assistance

Additional Prototype Criteria In late May, the Team decided that: Prototype cluster areas can approach 120,000 grid points Prototype cluster areas must include at least 4 WFOs Multi-regional participation within clusters is important The clusters need to cover a diversity of forecast challenges: Hurricane Tornado Marine Flood Winter weather Fire Weather Mountainous Terrain Water Management

(2) Approved Prototype Clusters  “Pacific Northwest”  “Great Plains”  “Great Lakes”  “Southeast Coast”

Key Elements of Prototype Testing Expanded domain for GFE Collaboration tools Resource allocation tools Assessment criteria and metrics A plan!

Next Steps – As of July 2006  Laboratory (CRH – GSD) Laboratory preparations – June-July Conduct during August – October Forecaster involvement September-October Report completed early November 2007  Prototype Plan Next CONOPS deliverable – September 2006 (?) Deployment and roll-out details Basis for Impact and Implementation discussions  Prototype Activity Begins January-March 2007

Laboratory #1 - Design Conducted September 11 – October 6, weeks for 4 pairs of representatives for each of the approved clusters Simulated operations using WFO Boulder and CRH Heavy support from GSD and Prototype Team Key questions –Will CONOPS break AWIPS –Test performance thresholds and flexibility of GFE –Test capacity to shift workload

Laboratory #1 - Results 120,000 grid points adversely affects system performance Without integrated tracking software, clusters of more than 4 offices create an unacceptable level of complexity (and risk) during ReAP Lab was successful in averting problems that would have materialized in the Team’s original plan –Plan was adjusted to be more incremental, more measured, and more risk averse

Preliminary CONOPS Prototype Timeline November 2006 – August 2009 Lab 2 6/07 Lab 3 2/08 X Board Decision 8/07 X Board Decision 4/08 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Prototype Report 7/09 4/08 – 4/09 X Board Decision 8/09 11/06 – 6/078/07 – 2/08 Board Decision 11/06 X

Prototype Definitions Cluster Management Team Expanded Domain Temporal Split Weather Element Split Resource Allocation Process (ReAP) Methodology Summit Playbooks/Operational Strategy Pages Lead-in WFOs

Phase 1: Prototype Preparation Lab 2 6/07 I&I Develop Training Staff Training CMT Kickoff Meeting Identify CMT Participants Initial Methodology Summit Identify Methodology Summit Participants MPLS Network and AWIPS OB7.2 in Place 11/06 software upgrades and hardware additions support expanded domain and enhanced collaboration

Phase 2 – Service Backup Pairs

Phase 2: Cluster Pair Spin-Up Operations 8/07 Staff Training Lab 3 2/08 Install Technologies and Validate Full Operations Cluster Pairs Development (Phase 2a) Playbook Development Cluster Operations (Phase 2b) software to support four-office clusters of less than 100,000 grid points

Phase 3 – Cluster Operations

Phase 3: Four-Office Cluster Spin-up and Operations 4/08 Expanded Forecasting Capability Development (Phase 3a) Operational Period (Phase 3b) Staff Training Playbook Development Prototype Completed 4/09 Install Technologies and Validate Full Operations

CONOPS: Role of Hydrology Hydrologic service is a core function of the NWS CONOPS will allow WFOs to focus additional resources on hydrologic service during high impact events CONOPS will allow WFOs an opportunity to expand hydrologic service outreach and hydrologic training (internal and external) –Collaboration w/ RFC outreach and customer service Role of RFCs (cluster support office) must be explicitly developed starting in Phase I through the CMT –HICs are full members of all CMTs by definition CONOPS may provide an opportunity to implement the RFC Service Coordination Hydrologist position

Now What? Prototype Team’s work was finished with delivery of the plan to the CB –Retained, as needed, as subject matter experts Team recommended the formation of an integrated work group to manage the implementation of the CONOPS Prototype Plan