Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society Kathy E. Gill 18 October 2004

Overview More Theory History of computing technology Networks

Quotable 1 "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876

Quotable 2 Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

Quotable 3 "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Quotable 4 "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, 1949

Quotable 5 "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981 *

What is “technology”? tech-nol-o-gy 1: technical language; 2a: applied science b: a technical method of achieving a practical purpose 3: a totality of the means employed to provide objects necessary for human sustenance and comfort

Technology Knowledge used to solve problems and extend human potential Technology is about enabling change and amplifying its direction. Think of it as facilitating the journey not (necessarily) setting the destination.

Technology and Media Caves in France Paper and charcoal/ink Printing Press Telegraph et al (radio, television) Computer mediated communications

Why use a technology - demand Cognitive Needs – Desire (demand) for information, knowledge, understanding Affective Needs – Aesthetic, pleasurable, and emotional experiences Personal Integrative Needs – Inner-directed, deal with credibility, confidence, stability, and status Social Integrative Needs – Outer-directed, strengthening relationships with family, friends, the world Escapist Needs – Desire for tension release or diversion - Katz, Gurevitch, and Haas

Why use a technology - other Availability Cost Network effects ??

Discussion – Peer Group 3 Chia Fang Tsai Jac De Haan Katherine K Roemer

Discussion – Questions Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today? Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, software constant upgrades …

Rogers - Diffusion Theory Identified four main elements of an innovation-diffusion process Innovation Social system Time Communications channels

Linear innovation-diffusion The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. (Rogers, 1995, P.5).

Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

Communication A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding (Rogers, 1995)

Time The adoption model follows an “s” shape curve over time

Innovation-Decision Process The mental process through which an individual passes from first knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

Five steps Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation

Social System A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

Critical mass (1/2) Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self- sustaining.”

Critical mass (2/2) The critical mass is a social system perspective, while the dominant design is a technology perspective. The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation.

Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. Software - the knowledge base for the tool

Japanese Word Processor Shipments

Unit prices of WP and PC (MITI)

(Somewhat) Ancient History (1/2) 8500 BC : Bone carved with prime numbers discovered 1000 – 500 BC : Abacus invented 1500 : da Vinci’s mechanical calculator 1642 : Blaise Pascal, 1st adding device 1714 : 1 st English typewriter patent

(Somewhat) Ancient History (2/2) 1801 : Joseph Jacquard, weaving looms 1st to mechanically control a device’s operations sequence 1822 : Charles Babbage, Father of the Modern Computer and Ada Byron, Lady Lovelace

Charles Babbage An eccentric British mathematician and inventor The Difference Engine, 1822; it calculated and printed mathematical tables Analytical Engine, the first device considered a computer in the modern sense of the word Would use loops of Jacquard’s punch cards to control an automatic calculator, which would make decisions based on previous computation results

Analytical Engine, 1858

Ada Byron In 1843, predicted that Babbage’s “analytical engine” could compose music and produce graphics with both practical and scientific application Dscribed how Babbage’s engine might calculate Bernoulli numbers; this is regarded as the first “computer program.” Ada, the first ISO-standardized OO programming language; developed by the US Department of Defense in 1979.

Modern History (1/3) 1937 : Alan Turing, Turing Machine Theoretical model of a computer 1938 : Claude Shannon’s Master’s Thesis “possibly the most important of the 20 th century” Showed how Boole’s concepts of True and False could be used to represent functions of switches (binary)

Modern History (2/3) : Howard Aiken Harvard Mark I, 1 st large scale digital computer (IBM Automatic Sequence Control Calculator) Used Electromagnetic Relays 1943 : Alan Turing & COLOSSUS WWII machine designed to break German code; 1800 vacuum tubes Earliest working programmable electronic digital computer

Modern History (3/3) : ENIAC 1st fully Electronic Computer 18,000 vacuum tubes; 10’ tall, 1000 sq ft of floor space, weighed ~30 tons 1945 : first computer “bug” (literally!) 1949 : John VonNeumann Consultant on Manhattan Project Paper : all basic elements of a stored program computer

First Commercial Computers 1951 : 1 st Computer Sold to U.S. Bureau of Census - UNIVAC I 1954 : 1st Computer Sold to Private Corp., General Electric Company - UNIVAC I

Recent History (1/5) 1957 : FORTRAN 1 st high-level programming language 1959 : COBOL Common Business Oriented Language 1961 : John F. Kennedy, Space Program

Recent History (2/5) 1964 : BASIC Beginners All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code 1975 : Bill Gates & Paul Allen, Microsoft 1976 : Steve Jobs & Steve Wozniack, Apple 1977 : Commodore “PET” computer

Recent History (3/5) 1979 : 1 st “killer app” 1st Electronic Spreadsheet – VisiCalc What is “killer app” in Winston’s context? 1980 : PC DOS 1981 : IBM - PC 1983 : Apple Macintosh Computer (GUI)

Recent History (4/5) 1984 : Laser Printers for PCs High quality affordable printing 1984 : CD-ROMS 1990s : Communications & Multimedia Audio Video Internet - WWW Browsers

Recent History (5/5) 21 st century? Peer-to-peer networks Miniaturization continues DRM DVD (burning) Time-shifting (Tivo, RePlay) Satellite radio

Categories of Computers Mainframes and PCs that run application software Embedded chips that control machines

Computing technology advances at exponential rates Memory capacity quadruples every 3 years Processor speed doubles every 3 years Number of hosts doubles every year Chip transistor densities double every 18 months at constant prices (Moore’s Law)

Computers and Networks Facilitate Concentration of knowledge and control Distribution of knowledge and control Have the power to Amass and analyze enormous volumes of data Process data at enormous rates for real systems and simulations

Computers and Networks Challenge: Constitutional definitions Social structures Lifestyle options None more challenging than “the Net”

Internet History Rand Corporation Plan for dealing with military and government communications… in the event of a “NUCLEAR WAR”

National Network with No Central Authority

ARPANET (Rand, MIT, UCLA) 1969 : 1st node on the Internet 1971 : 15 nodes 1982 : TCP/IP

Picking Up Speed 1987 : Apple’s Hypertext 1991 : Tim Berners-Lee at European Particle Physics Laboratory in Geneva conceived the World Wide Web 1993 : National Center for Supercomputing Applications [NCSA] - University of Illinois created a WWW browser named Mosiac

Faster... faster... faster April 94 : Mosaic Communications [Clark & Andreesen] Oct 94 : Netscape Beta Released Nov 94 : Mosaic Co ==> Netscape Aug 9, 1995 : Netscape IPO

Internet Hosts 1971 : : : 1, : 313, : 3,864, : 9,472, : 171,638, t_countries t_countries

What is a Host (aka Server)? A computer running software that allows it to provide (serve) documents via the WWW. The computer is assigned an IP address and connected to the InternetIP address Internet Somewhat analogous to the “printer” of a print document.

Parts of a Society Education Transportation Private Sector Business Government Entertainment Housing Currency (banking) Jobs Space Medicine Anything else?

The Net and Society In recent years this one area has affected society more than any other How? What are the issues?