1 Livestock Outlook Gary Brester MSU Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy & Climate Change.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

BeefBasis.com A Web Based Cattle Basis Analysis & Forecasting Tool Dr. Kevin Dhuyvetter and Dr. James Mintert Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas.

Advertisements

Kansas State University Department of Ag. Economics Measuring Beef Demand James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor & Extension State Leader Department of Agricultural.

2013 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Livestock Marketing Specialist.

Livestock Situation and Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.

Prospects for U.S. Meat Exports The View From Washington Shayle Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“Beef Forecast Group” Brussels, 14 April 2010 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal Market.

WELCOME: BEEF ECONOMICS WEBINAR Audio Announcement: all lines are currently muted and we will begin promptly at 1:30pm CST Please select your audio now.

Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Hog & Pork Outlook Louisville,

Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor University of Missouri-Columbia Chicken & Competing Meats.

APEC 5010 Firm Marketing and Price Analysis Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University.

Red Meat and Poultry Outlook Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.

Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra,

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,

January 21, 2015 University of Missouri Extension.

Current Economic Climate of the Cattle Business Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma.

Cattle Outlook and Market Economics Presented by John D. Lawrence and Gary May Iowa State University.

James Robb Director – LMIC 655 Parfet Street Suite E310 Lakewood, CO Beef and Cattle --- Market Situation and Outlook Midwest,

Photos courtesy of USDA Jason Henderson Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch May 14, 2008 U.S. AGRICULTURE: What Goes Up Must.

Ron Plain Extension Economist University of Missouri-Columbia Stocker Cattle Outlook February 2009.

1 Food commodity prices: History & prospects Ron Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture ? USDA Outlook Forum February 20, 2014.

An Overview of Wisconsin and US Agricultural Economy Bruce L. Jones Director, Renk Agribusiness Institute August 2013.

OVERVIEW of WORLD & U.S. BEEF CATTLE INDUSTRIES By David R. Hawkins Michigan State University.

Price Outlook, 2015 and Beyond 2015 GREAT LAKES PROFESSIONAL CATTLE FEEDING AND MARKETING SHORTCOURSE East Lansing, MI Bowling Green, OH Wyoming, ON Jim.

K-State Research & Extension U.S. Cattle Sector James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University.

Maintaining U.S. Beef Industry Competitiveness with High-Priced Grain Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness And Livestock Marketing Specialist.

Current Situation “If you owe the bank $1,00 dollars, that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $1 million that’s the banks problem”

K-State Research & Extension Cattle Outlook James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor & Extension Ag. Economist, Livestock Marketing Department of Agricultural Economics.

Ron Plain April 22, 2015 Cattle Outlook (title). Source: USDA/ERS 10 monthly records in 2014.

1 Livestock Outlook and Economics Brenda L. Boetel University of Wisconsin – River Falls August 2008.

Outlook for the U.S. Dairy Sector in 2012 Milton Madison Farm Service Agency U.S. Department of Agriculture Presented at the 2012 USDA Outlook Forum Washington,

Ross Pruitt Extension Livestock Economist. Summary  Recap of Overall Meat Complex in 2009  Beef Situation and Outlook  Poultry Situation and Outlook.

Cow-Calf Outlook and Profitability Kenny Burdine and Greg Halich UK Ag Economics.

"Single CMO" Management Committee 18 March 2010 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal Market.

Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Hog & Pork Outlook Midwest.

Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook million tons.

April 22, 2015 University of Missouri Extension. Pat Guinan April 22, 2015.

1 K-State Research & Extension Cattle Outlook James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor & Extension State Leader Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas State.

Agricultural Economics Beef, Dairy, Equine, Poultry, Hogs, Sheep, and Goats Kenny Burdine and Lee Meyer UK Ag Economics.

Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy and Dr. John McKissick Extension Livestock Economists.

Cattle Markets: Situation, Outlook, and Issues Oklahoma State University Webinar September 9, 2014 James G. Robb Director.

The Outlook for Ethanol, Corn, and Beef Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development & Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Iowa.

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,

Trade & Economic Impacts of Animal Disease Outbreaks Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Texas A&M University.

CATTLENOMICS Derrell S. Peel Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University.

October 14, 2014 University of Missouri Extension.

1 Cattle Outlook 2011 and Beyond Shane Ellis Extension Livestock Economist Iowa State University August 16, 2011.

Meat Industry Overview South African Feedlot Association Annual General Meeting 9 March 2010 David Spies.

The Impact of COOL on Mexican Cattle and Beef Production and Trade Derrell S. Peel Department of Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University.

2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State.

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,

Beef Marketing Update Kenny Burdine UK Agricultural Economics Economics.

U.S. Beef Export Update & Beef Market Situation in U.S. Erin Daley Economist, USMEF Seoul, Korea June 23, 2009.

Beef Cattle Market Update

Corn, Sorghum, and Wheat Outlook

Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel

Cattle and Beef Markets: Short and Long Run Challenges and Opportunities Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing.

Agricultural Market Outlook July 17, 2014

Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist

Crop and Livestock Market Outlook

Agricultural Economic Outlook

Indiana’s Agricultural Outlook Chris Hurt

Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel

Cattle Marketing: Cash Market Basics

Agricultural Marketing

Livestock & Crop Outlook

Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel

Economics of Crop & Livestock Production

Ag Outlook Young Professionals in Agriculture Johnston, Iowa

2019 Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel

Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist

Presentation transcript:

1 Livestock Outlook Gary Brester MSU Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy & Climate Change November 14, 2008 Bozeman, MT

2 OUTLINE 1.Cattle Production/Prices 2. Trade Situation 3. Domestic Demand 4.Cattle Outlook

3 OUTLINE 1.Cattle Production/Prices 2. Trade Situation 3. Domestic Demand 4.Cattle Outlook

4 “US Beef Production” vs. Cattle Inventory (January 1) Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center

5 Productivity of U.S. Beef Cow Breeding Herd Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center

6 Nominal Fed And Feeder Cattle Prices Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center

7 Real Fed And Feeder Cattle Prices Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & Economic Report of the President (2000=100)

8 Productivity of U.S. Beef Cow Breeding Herd Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center

9 OUTLINE 1.Cattle Production/Prices 2. Trade Situation 3. Domestic Demand 4.Cattle Outlook

10 U.S. Beef, Veal and Live Animal Imports Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center

11 Beef and Beef From Live Cattle Imports as a Percentage of U.S. Supply Percent Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center *CUSTA **NAFTA

12 U.S. Beef, Veal and Live Animal Exports Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center *CUSTA **NAFTA

13 U.S. Beef/Live Animal Exports As A Percentage of U.S. Beef Supply Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center *CUSTA **NAFTA

14 Value of U.S. Beef, Veal and Live Animal, By-Product Net Imports/Exports Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Agricultural Marketing Policy Center *CUSTA **NAFTA

15 OUTLINE 1.Cattle Production/Prices 2. Trade Situation 3. Domestic Demand 4.Cattle Outlook

16 Demand for Fed Cattle U.S. Fed Steer Price vs. U.S. Beef Supply Price ($/cwt) Beef Supply (billion lbs) ?

17 Demand for Fed Cattle U.S. Fed Steer Price vs. U.S. Beef Supply Price ($/cwt) Beef Supply (billion lbs) ? ?

18 U.S. Demand for Beef Source: James Mintert, Kansas State University Choice Retail Beef Demand Index (1980=100) Index Value

19 U.S. Demand for Beef Source: James Mintert, Kansas State University Annual Percentage Change in Beef Demand Beef Demand Change (%)

20 OUTLINE 1.Cattle Production/Prices 2. Trade Situation 3. Domestic Demand 4.Cattle Outlook

21 Cattle And Corn Prices Sources: LMIC and NASS

22 Impact Of Corn Prices On Cattle Prices 1. Price correlation between a.Corn and fed steers is A 10% decrease in corn price a.Decrease fed cattle price by 0.6%  Increased fed cattle weights b.Increases feeder cattle prices by 2%

23 Impact Of Fed Cattle Prices On Feeder Cattle Prices 1.The major factor in feeder cattle prices is fed cattle price a. Correlation of 0.83 b.Fed cattle price declines by 1%, feeder cattle decline by 1.5% c.A $10/cwt decline in fed cattle reduces feeder cattle by about $15/cwt

Cattle Prices 1.U.S. beef production is forecast to be level in 2008/2009 a. Cattle numbers remain low 2.Economic conditions important 3. Domestic demand likely to decline 4. International markets? 5. April 2010 fed cattle trading at $0.91/lb 6.September 09 futures $1.02/lb a.Suggests $1.06/lb for MT calves

25 QUESTIONS? Picture Courtesy of Clint Peck