Manager Research and Projects The Dynamic Tanker Market Tokyo 10 November 2004.

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Presentation transcript:

Manager Research and Projects The Dynamic Tanker Market Tokyo 10 November 2004

VLCC price and freight rate m $‘000 $

Historic market – why? R ecord demand - unforeseen Commodity squeeze -T ight oil supply - record consumption O il production > consumption 2 and 3Q04 - high price and production L ow stocks, or do we know? P ersian Gulf long haul export up mbd F leet increasing - but less than demand? P hase out of SH P hase in of DH M oderate sales for decommissioning before 2010 R estricted shipyard capacity

Average monthly tanker spot rate and Middle East oil production Middle East oil prod mbd $ per day $ per day VL- AG East

Oil price and freight rates – real and nominal WS 200 $52

Middle East oil production mbd +2 mbd means+ 44/77 VLCCs E/W

Crude oil seaborne trade - Indices

Demand growth areas

World oil demand growth by region mbd Source: IEA

Chinese oil production and demand mbd

US crude oil import Source: EIA/DOE mbd Production

US product oil import Source: EIA/DOE

US total stocks - barrels m bbls

European crude oil import (up 2.7%) Source: OECD

European oil product import Source: OECD

Japanese crude import mbd

Japanese products imports mbd

World oil demand outlook- EIA mbd

World oil demand outlook- IEA mbd

World oil supply outlook- IEA mbd

FSU crude oil and products export Other export: 0.5 mbd, Sakhalin/North mbd

Tanker supply

Tanker Fleet Development M dwt Number Source: Clarkson

Tanker phase out - m dwt

Phase out 5-29,999 dwt- no. 3.5 m dwt 2.4 m dwt

Phase out Aframaxes Number

VLCC phase out - number Subject to administrations ** LOOP, lightering areas exempted

Tanker renewal - fleet by hull ?

Tanker trade by hull 2003 – 960 m ts % SH average 40%

VLCC trade 1H m dwt (960 m dwt 2003) m dwt Source. Fearnleys

VLCC trade 1H m dwt (960 m dwt 2003) Source. Fearnleys

Sales for decommissioning m dwt

Tanker fleet development m dwt

Shipyards activity JapanS Korea m cgt Source: MSR

VLCC price development Mil YenMil USD Dec 91: Max 13,860 m Yen/Dec 91 $110 m April 95: Min 7,064 m Yen/Sep 02 $62.5 m Nov04 : 11,108 m Yen/ $105m Steelprice: Mil WonMil USD

Conclusion

Gasoline price at the pump

Conclusion D emand -continue to increase - slower pace H igh deliveries – stronger fleet increase M odern fleet M oderate phase out/sales for decommissioning Y ard capacity increasing N ewbuilding prices declining