Correlation vs. Causation. In a Gallup poll, surveyors asked, “Do you believe correlation implies causation?’” 64% of American’s answered “Yes”. 38% replied.

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Presentation transcript:

Correlation vs. Causation

In a Gallup poll, surveyors asked, “Do you believe correlation implies causation?’” 64% of American’s answered “Yes”. 38% replied “No”. The other 8% were undecided.

Correlation vs Causation Correlation tells us two variables are related Types of relationship reflected in correlation ◦X causes Y or Y causes X (causal relationship) ◦X and Y are caused by a third variable Z (spurious relationship) 4

Correlation vs. Causation Example ‘‘The correlation between workers’ education levels and wages is strongly positive” Does this mean education “causes” higher wages? ◦We don’t know for sure ! Correlation tells us two variables are related BUT does not tell us why 5

Correlation vs. Causation Possibility 1 ◦ Education improves skills and skilled workers get better paying jobs  Education causes wages to  Possibility 2 ◦Individuals are born with quality A which is relevant for success in education and on the job  Quality (NOT education) causes wages to  6

Ice-cream sales are strongly correlated with death from drowning rates. Therefore, ice-cream causes drowning.

the evidence is the correlation (in yellow): "Kids of teen moms are twice as likely not to graduate than kids whose moms were over age 22." And the conclusion is the text in the top- right: "I'm twice as likely not to graduate high school because you had me as a teen.”

What potential confounding factors is the advertisement failing to consider as alternate causes?

Ice cream sales and the incidents of polio are correlated. Ice cream sales and the incidents of polio are correlated  Skirt lengths and stock prices are highly correlated (as stock prices go up, skirt lengths get shorter).  The number of cavities in elementary school children and vocabulary size are strongly correlated (negatively)

Without proper interpretation, causation should not be assumed, or even implied.

Unless data have been gathered by experimental means and confounding variables have been eliminated, correlation never implies causation. When controlled experiments are performed. When can we imply causation?