“Rogue Valley Climate Trends & Projections” How Climate is affecting the Applegate Alan Journet Ph.D Presentation (as ppt or pdf) on web site: click ‘

THE MESSAGES 1) Climate change consequences are here and now 2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends For those who plan to nap through my presentation….

2014 Global Temperatures 1880 – 2014 cf ⁰F⁰F

Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100) 3.6 ⁰ F 7.2 ⁰ F 10.8 ⁰ F 14.4 ⁰ F 18.0 ⁰ F 21.6 ⁰ F

Historic Trends are based on DATA The Future is Based on Projections:

Medford Average Temperature History US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford 2014 Ave 58.9

Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections Ave – F Summer Ave – F Winter Ave – F Business As Usual

Projected Increases Average 1.6 – 4 ⁰ F (51.6 – 53.8 ⁰ F) Winter 1 – 3.5 ⁰ F (39.1 – 41.7 ⁰ F) Summer 1 – 6 ⁰ F (64.4 – 69.5 ⁰ F) August 1 – 7.5 ⁰ F (67.1 – 73.5 ⁰ F) Average 4.3 – 8.2 ⁰ F (54.3 – 58.2 ⁰ F) Winter 3.4 – 6.3 ⁰ F (41.5 – 44.5 ⁰ F) Summer 5.5 – 11.8 ⁰ F (69.1 – 75.4 ⁰ F) August 6.7 – 16.8 ⁰ F (72.7 – 82.8 ⁰ F)

> 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F

> 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F

> 8.0 ⁰ F > 4. 0 ⁰ F

US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford 100 Degree Days History EXTREMES ARE ALSO IMPORTANT

Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100 o F Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Historic Precipitation Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. National increase of 5% Substantial Regional Difference

Medford Annual Precipitation - Inches Historic US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

46 Projected Precipitation Seasonal Pattern – High Emissions Scenarios = ‘Business As Usual’

1958 – 2007 Historic Heavy Downpours (Heaviest 1% of all events): % Increase in Freq. Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More events featuring heavy downpours

1958 – 2007 Historic Increase in Amount of pptn falling in Heavy Downpours Pattern – Heaviest 1% as Amount in Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More precipitation in the heavier downpours

Projected Patterns in Light, Moderate & Heavy Precipitatio n Events by 2090s Reduced Light Drizzle Days Increased Heavy Downpour Days Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 – 8,000 ft N. California Below 7500’ 13% decline Above 7500’ 12% increase

Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections Green: Decreasing Drought  7 months fewer per 30 years Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought  over 60 months more per 30 yrs – Business as usual

U.S. Population affected by this drought: 49,859,169 65% of west is D0 or above Over 6 months January 6 th 2015

The Short-term Future

Declining snowpack leads to reduced water supply in our ‘natural’ reservoirs. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Red = decreasing snow water Blue = increasing snow water

Spring Snowmelt Dates - Critical in West Longitude Latitude Impact on streams – both peak timing and flow rate Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Projected Stream Flow Timing in Western States Historic Stream Flow Timing in Western States

Projected PNW Run-off Timing Run-off peak  earlier & lower Late summer run-off  lower Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Warming & Loss of Snowpack

0.5 ⁰ C is the difference between a high fire year and a low fire year. ( change-yellowstone-fires.html ) change-yellowstone-fires.html Forest studies tell us wildfire frequency is high when annual average temperature is high and when snowmelt arrives early. Western Wildfires & Climate Change Exactly the historic trends and projections discussed

Jet Stream and the Arctic Oscillation Polar Air Pressure Low - air rising Polar Air Pressure High - air falling

Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream be-affecting-the-jet-stream/ COLD WARM COLD WARM

Managing the Unavoidable (Adaptation) Managing ourselves and our environment in ways that minimize the threats posed; Preparing ourselves and natural systems to withstand climate changes that are unavoidable and which we cannot minimize. Bierbaum, R and J. Holdren, JP, MacCracken, M, Moss RH, Raven PH Confronting climate change: Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable. But this is not enough….. Avoiding the Unmanageable (Mitigation) Reducing the release of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.

B UT 30 X CO X CO 2 Approximately 75%> 75% The Problem? Greenhouse gases released by human activity: Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen.

Rogue Valley: Use of These Fuels Private cars/trucks Public Transit Local Freight Transportation 32% Energy 24% Materials = Stuff 44% Energy to make stuff Energy to transport stuff here Fossil Fuels for energy production Energy used in our homes & local businesses Natural gas for heating Clothes, shoes, ‘phones, TVs

Our Future: Do The Math! / There IS Urgency!!

We Have Choices! Individually & Collectively Money inflows & outflows Back in the Day… Now…. Energy Accounting GHG CO 2 Carbon Accounting Hopium

Co-Facilitators: Alan Journet Kathy Conway MEETINGS: (Last Tuesday) Special Topic Presentation 6:00 pm – 6:30pm General Meeting 6:30 – 7:30 pm Action Activities Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

Questions? Any comments or questions ????