Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation Michael Obersteiner

GLOBIOM Global Biosphere (Optimization) Model Land (type de sol, altitude, inclinaison, climat,système d’exploitation) FOREST AGRICULTURE Modèles biophysiques EPICG4M Ind.RoundwoodFirewood Biomass 4 Energy 60 Crops 6 Input Systems Forest Products Livestock Bioenergy DEMAND SUPPLY = OTHER

Globally Consistent REDD++

Presentation of the model Global coverage 28 regions Endogenous prices Bilateral trade flows With a focus on Congo Basin 1550 Simulation Units from10*10km to 50*50 km Detailed infrastructure network

Model application Simulation horizon: 2000–2030 Scenarios Biofuels Mead Technological change Infrastructure improvement Sensitivity analysis : REDD policy 50%, 75%, 90% reduction of global deforestation compared to the situation Business As Usual (BAU)

Model application Infrastructure scenario Transport time with existing infrastructure Transport time with completed Trans-African Road network Scenario Average = 40 hoursAverage = 23 hours

Deforestation after infrastructure improvement [1000 ha/SimU/10 years] Green = low Red = high I: Regional zooming - CongoBIOM

Deforestation Impact Deforested area in Congo Basin in 2030 (Mio. Ha)

Marginal REDD++ costs

Food Security Crop price index

Global Mitigation and Trade

Mitigation through Yield Improvements Input neutral yield growth – Plant material – Pest and disease management Input based yield growth – Subsistence, extensive, intensive, irrigated intensive Productivity gains by geographic allocation of production – Trade

REDD+ and Agriculture based Mitigation 100%71%52%41%

Global Wheat Trade 2050 % of total production % of Baseline

Crop Price Index

Bioenergy & Mitigation

Global Energy Portfolio – 1.5-2DG target Source: Azar et al. 2010

Bioelectricity from CHP 2 nd Genn Transportfuels Heat&Cooking

Impact of Biofuels Marginal Analysis %

Challenges Embodied technology transfer through FDI International capital transfer Trade liberalization Get supply chains climate smarter such that funding reaches the ground improved agricultural practices (e.g. roundtables and certification [CGF]) => lower prices and price volatility  more environmental services not only GHGs  adaptation co-benefits