Water in 2030 SC Water Dialog November 3, 2010 Peer A. Swan

Water in 2030 Speaking as an individual with 31 years in the water and wastewater infrastructure business, not representing any IRWD official position. Speaking as an individual with 31 years in the water and wastewater infrastructure business, not representing any IRWD official position. Experience: Experience: –Director, Irvine Ranch Water District – 31 years –Founding Director, National Water Research Institute – 10 years –Director, Orange County Sanitation District – 15 years –Director, Metropolitan Water District SC – 3 years –Director, Association of California Water Agencies – 4 years –Director, Southern California Water Committee – 10 years

Water in 2030 Current State situation: Average about 80 MAF/YR available Average about 80 MAF/YR available About 36 MAF/YR consumed (78% AG) About 36 MAF/YR consumed (78% AG) About 44 MAF/YR to salt sinks (Pacific) About 44 MAF/YR to salt sinks (Pacific) (44 MAF/YR = Water for 352,000,000 folks) People needs of the rest of the US, Canada, Australia, and Taiwan

Water in 2030 Current State situation: The largest amount of AG water is used to grow Rice and animal feed. Permanent AG is rapidly growing and not required to prove reliable supply as is the case with urban water.

Water in 2030 Current State situation: Salt balance is just being addressed and few areas of the State are in or near a balance. Salt balance is just being addressed and few areas of the State are in or near a balance. Moving, Treating, and Disposing water consumes 7% of the State’s Electricity and 0.5% of the Natural Gas Moving, Treating, and Disposing water consumes 7% of the State’s Electricity and 0.5% of the Natural Gas

Water in 2030 Current State situation: Delta extremely fragile, subject to failure and ESA interruptions of water deliveries Desalination both more expensive and energy intensive than alternatives with limited exceptions.

Water in 2030 By 2030: By 2030: The Delta has been fixed (had it failed first?). Reliable supply to MWD is: The Delta has been fixed (had it failed first?). Reliable supply to MWD is: –Wet Years – 2,400,000 AF X 2 = 4,800,000 AF –Normal Yrs – 1,600,000 AF X 5 = 8,000,000 AF –Dry Years - 900,000 AF X 3 = 2,700,000 AF Reliable SWP supply over 10 year = 1,550,000 AF / YR Reliable CRA supply over 10 year = 1,000,000 AF / YR

Water in 2030 By 2030: Most recycled water treatment plants will be converted to Advanced Treatment and will inject or sink into groundwater or blend with imported supplies for reliability and SALT Management reasons.

Water in 2030 By 2030: Salt Balance will be a big issue and has caused the Colorado Aqueduct to be desalted. This accounts for the 200,000 AF loss of supply.

Water in 2030 By 2030: Permanent AG crops will be limited by law like 610 / 221 to levels sustainable during dry periods. Permanent AG crops will be limited by law like 610 / 221 to levels sustainable during dry periods. Long Term Dry Weather AG to Urban transfers will be more common Long Term Dry Weather AG to Urban transfers will be more common

Water in 2030 By 2030: Existing large dams will be enlarged to capture earlier runoff caused by warming. Existing large dams will be enlarged to capture earlier runoff caused by warming. Enlarged Contra Costa reservoir to balance Delta exports Enlarged Contra Costa reservoir to balance Delta exports

Water in 2030 By 2030: Energy costs for major aqueducts will increase slower than for alternative supplies that can not shut down during expensive peak demand periods. Energy costs for major aqueducts will increase slower than for alternative supplies that can not shut down during expensive peak demand periods. Ocean Desalination plants will be abandoned in areas with otherwise reliable supplies. Ocean Desalination plants will be abandoned in areas with otherwise reliable supplies.

Water in 2030 By 2030: Conservation will continue to be emphasized due to water quality and wastewater treatment cost issues – not as an effort to increase supply – except in coastal drainage areas of the State.

Water in 2030 By 2030: The Salton Sea will be reduced to 40 % the current size. Farming will reclaim former lake bottom areas not converted to wetlands around former sea edge.

Questions or Comments?