Longitudinal Studies Past, Present and Future ESRC Commitment Long Term Two strands  Select National Jewels  Ad hoc Studies

Select (ESRC) National Jewels  LS  Cohorts  BHPS  These are funded for the data and given funds to promote analysis

Other Major Longitudinal Studies  There are many BUT  Access often difficult

Major Characteristics of all Longitudinal Studies  Expensive  Require Long Term Commitment  Payoff not immediate

Pay off not immediate BUT  There is much that can be done  MILLENIUM COHORT  There needs to be work to ensure maximum value for investment

Do we need any more national jewels?  Institutions  46, 58, 70, ?, 01  Regional Estimates  Specific Demographic Groups  Expense  Use  Decisions MUST be based on a clear assessment of the substantive questions which the data will, over time address.

National Data Strategy  Need long term commitment to a core set of data  Not all longitudinal  Paul Boyle’s review  National Datasets co-ordinator  Policy Launch June  Strategy Development over Autumn  Feed into new ESRC Strategic Framework

ESRC’s New Framework Capacity Delivery Engagement Performance

What we do The themes:  Economic Performance and development  Environment and Human Behaviour  Governance and Citizenship  Knowledge, Communication and Learning  Lifecourse, Lifestyles and Health  Social Stability and Exclusion  Work and Organisation  Research resources

Fit into RCUK Ten Year Vision  Some potential areas (NB EXTREMELY ILLUSTRATIVE)  Economic Performance  Population  Individual Behaviour, Lifestyle and Health  Public Service Delivery  Education  Our Environment and Food

Lowest Common Denominator  All benefit from Longitudinal Data

Infrastructure for Next Ten Years Twenty first century Social Science requires twenty first century infrastructure Major area will be modelling individual and institutional data over time and space and from different sources Methodological Development merging disclosure control

Analysis  1980 Logistical Regression  1987 Current Status data  1990 Discrete Time Hazards (DTH)  1995 Multilevel DTM  1997 Multilevel Multinomial DTH  2001 Multiprocess Modelling  2003 Onwards e-social science multiple types

Final Summary LS Central to ESRC LS Central to Social Science BUT We need to be clear about focus and need