October 2004 Presentation to the Portfolio Committee on Finance Statistics South Africa

Aims of presentation 1.To report on the performance of Stats SA against stated targets 2.To highlight major successes of the year 3.To highlight current and forthcoming work 4.To highlight Stats SA’s part in government’s plan of action

Contents 1.Overview 2.Programme performance 3.Financial performance 4.Implementing Government’s programme of action

June 2004 July 2004 Aug 2004 % Increase from June to August 04 Visitors – monthly total % Visitors - average per day % Time Series data subscribers – total as at end of month % Newsletter subscribers – totals as at end of month % Number of files downloaded – monthly total % Stats Online: 1 June 2004 – 31 August 2004 Delivering statistics

Overview

Government aims to: Grow the Economy Create jobs Deliver services Eradicate poverty Improve health And monitor and evaluate through: GDP and CPI Unemployment rate Proportion of households with access % below national poverty line Mortality and morbidity statistics Statistics to inform priorities

Governance framework Unpredictable Environment; Controls not designed or in place Controls designed and in place but not adequately documented Controls designed and in place and are adequately documented Standardised controls with periodic testing and management reporting Integrated internal controls with real time monitoring and continuous improvement Non-Compliance Value adding UnreliableInformalMonitoredOptimised Standardised

High level operating framework for the new structure – excluding support services Survey Planning Outputs: Data Items Questionnaire design Sample Frame Collection Methodology Methods and Standards Implementation Outputs: Desired Series, CPI, etc Fulfilling user request Publication Dissemination NSD Population and Social Economic Data Collection Data Processing Data Analysis Q & I Consistency Correctness Policy Impact Comparability Accuracy Further Integrative Analysis Exco DDG Report on findings Approval Exco Integrative Analysis SIS/Marketing 1 2 Organizatio nal and/or stakeholder need SIS* Feedback to Exco Approval

Priority matrix Attend to urgentlyMaintain and Improve Drop Innovate Performance Importance to users LowHigh Income and expenditure survey CPI Second economy Census replacement survey Construction Service sector Social statistics Current economic statistics Current causes of death data Labour market statistics Causes of death backlog Old business register samples Census 2006 Census 2011 Physical address register Social and economic analysis

-10- Review of performance by programme 1.Administration and Management 2.Economic and Social Statistics 3.Population Statistics 4.Quality and Integration 5.Statistical Support and Informatics

-11- Programme one Administration and Management

-12- Administration and Management Purpose: To provide sound infrastructure and support that enables Stats SA to achieve its mandate Comprises: Executive management SG’s Office, Communication and International Relations National Statistics System division Programme Office and Management Information Systems Administration Finance and Provisioning Management Human Resource Management Service Delivery Improvement

-13- Key achievements Executive management Appointment of two DDGs – one post still vacant SG’s column and monthly internal newsletter Assessment of statistical capacity of govt departments Contribution to Towards a ten year review Training of policy makers in SADC Administration Expenditure under control Improved planning – especially project management Development of management information system Rolled out HIV/Aids programme Improved Human Resources file management systems Administration and Management

-14- Ten initiatives to improve governance and ensure compliance 1. Tender procedures: strengthening bid management office and bid committee has been trained 2. Asset management: Bar-coded asset management system now procured - implementation between October and December Census payment problems: Build capacity and reduce burden through CRS; decentralisation of support functions 4. Internal control problems: Process mapping and redesign project to ensure full compliance to regulatory requirements and improved service delivery to users and suppliers 5. Risk management: Risk management strategy approved and currently being rolled out Administration and Management

Internal audit recommendations: There is substantial increase in implementation of internal audit recommendations 7.IT governance: Initiated assessment of complete IT infrastructure to ensure alignment with strategic objectives 8. Review of structure to ensure better management of support functions and improve quality of statistical processes 9. Targeted skills development for all managers including financial and project management 10. Improved use of performance management to promote accountability and increase delivery Ten initiatives to improve governance and ensure compliance Administration and Management

-16- Programme two Economic and Social Statistics

-17- Economic and Social Statistics Purpose: To produce economic and social statistics to meet user requirements Measurable objective: To provide statistical information which is accurate, relevant and timely in order to inform socio-economic decision making Comprises: Industry and Trade Statistics Employment and Price Statistics Financial Statistics Social Statistics

-18- OutputTargetActual Statistics on primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy 11 monthly series 1 quarterly series 1 annual series Large sample surveys Four series were delayed for three months at the beginning of 2004 to ensure proper response rates on the new samples Statistics on the workforce in formal, non-agricultural businesses 2 quarterly series: AME SEE Average Monthly Earnings survey was dropped to provide a bigger sample for the Survey of Employment and Earnings (SEE) Performance against targets Economic and Social Statistics

-19- OutputTargetActual Statistics on price changes 3 monthly series: CPI PPI CPI for rural areas and total country All targets met Statistics on the financial results of government and the private sector 2 quarterly series 9 annual series All targets met Statistics on the living conditions of the population 1 annual series General Household Survey All targets met Statistics on labour market dynamics 1 bi-annual series Labour Force Survey All targets met Performance against targets Economic and Social Statistics

-20- Improvements to the relevance and accuracy of statistics on the economy and society Improved coverage and accuracy of statistics on the economy through first releases of manufacturing, retail, wholesale and motor trade statistics based on new sample Information on the impact of food price changes on the rural poor through publishing CPI for rural areas and total country on monthly basis More coherent labour market data through harmonisation of employment statistics from businesses and households Annual update of development indicators through General Household Survey New information on travel patterns through a Travel Survey for National Department of Transport Economic and Social Statistics

-21- Improvements for the current and next three years Economic statistics More accurate picture of size and growth of economy through re-benchmarking of GDP - out in November Improved understanding of services, construction and agriculture sectors through short term economic indicators More reliable inflation figures through direct price collection method for CPI Better responsiveness to changes in consumer behaviour through diary method for Income and Expenditure Survey to reweight the CPI basket every 3 years Better analysis of economic subsectors through improving referencing detail on business register Better coherence between series through improving analytical and research capabilities Economic and Social Statistics

-22- Improvements for the current and next three years Social and employment statistics Regular measurement of the second economy through the Survey of Employers and Self Employed (SESE) and Consumer Survey More detailed information on formal sector employees through the survey of Average Monthly Earnings Link money-metric and social dimensions of poverty through the General Household Survey Improved information on poverty through strengthening the poverty statistics unit Economic and Social Statistics

-23- Programme three Population Statistics

-24- Purpose: To provide population statistics and conduct a population census Measurable objective: To provide information on the demographic characteristics of the country at all levels of government in order to inform policy and planning processes on the state of the population Comprises: Population Census Demographic Analysis Health and Vital Statistics Population Statistics

-25- OutputTargetActual Census results and publications 30 April 2003Census results released on 8 July - six months earlier than 1996 Census 2006 planning documents 2 documents1 strategic plan and 1 operational plan developed before decision to postpone Census 2006 Thematic reports on demographic issues 3 reports2 published reports 2 draft reports Statistics on tourism, migration, births, deaths, marriages and divorces 1 monthly series 4 annual reports All targets met Performance against targets Population Statistics

-26- Improved small area information and analysis on the people of South Africa Release and roll out of Census 2001 results Launches with President and Premiers Over 150 institutions have electronic Community Profiles Over Census in Brief booklets distributed Innovations such as My Constituency and Digital Atlas Reports such as Municipality Report and Primary Tables Demographic studies on fertility, disability and education Population Statistics

-27- Inter-censal municipal level information through the Census Replacement Survey 2006 Ensuring the best-ever Census in 2011 by testing and planning now Promoting coherent information on the population by working with Home Affairs on population register Better understanding of migration through analysis of population and migration data Informing strategies to target disease by producing historical and current causes of death data Improvements for the current and next three years Population Statistics

-28- Programme four Quality and Integration

-29- Quality and Integration Purpose: To improve the integration, quality and use of official statistics Measurable objective: To provide integrated social, economic and demographic information that enhances the quality and usage of official statistics Comprises: Quality and methodology Integrative Analysis National Accounts Human Capacity Development

-30- OutputTargetActual Research and standards on best practice 4 documents3 documents and methodological support, quality assurance for surveys Integrative thematic reports 3 reportsNo reports Special data requests fulfilled for users National accounts data on level of economic activity 1 quarterly series 3 annual series 2 periodic reports All targets met Statistical skills development 120 staff members trained 29 staff members in tertiary programmes 850 person days on training Quality and Integration Performance against targets

-31- Improved quality and capacity for statistics Improved quality of statistics through development of methodological capacity to support economic and social statistics Development of turn-around strategy for economic statistics Official provincial economic data through first official GDP-R publication Improved understanding of contribution of natural resources to economy through first official satellite account on water Enhanced the capacity of the department through: Completion of first group of staff studying in Uganda, Tanzania and Wits 23 staff members completed ‘matric level’ maths course Stats SA staff now taking over teaching duties of consultants Quality and Integration

-32- Improvements for the current and next three years Continued improvement of quality through: Sustained development of methodological capacity Improved samples, methods and products Ensure the quality of small area data through methodological support to CRS and Census 2011 Enhanced statistical information on social and poverty issues through the development of analytical capacity More accurate picture of the size and growth of the economy through re-benchmarking of National Accounts Systematic development of Stats SA’s capacity through a competency-based human development programme Quality and Integration

-34- Programme five Statistical Support and Informatics

-35- Statistical Support and Informatics Purpose: To optimise the use of technology in the production and use of official statistics, to promote and provide better access to official statistics and develop provincial capacity to support the production and use of official statistics Measurable objective: To improve service delivery and increase accessibility to statistical products and services through improving and strengthening systems at national, provincial and district level Comprises: Geography Statistical Information Services System of Registers Information and Communication Technology Provincial Offices

-36- OutputTargetActual Geographic frame40% complete100% complete Sampling frame for economic statistics Provided annuallyTarget met Local and wide area network Available 98% of the time 100% LAN 90% WAN Accessibility of Stats SA information direct enquiries per year hits per month on website direct enquiries hits Provincial fieldwork capacity Collect questionnaires questionnaires Performance against targets Statistical Support and Informatics

-37- Improvements in the use and coverage of statistics Improved access to and utilisation of statistics through: Comprehensive geographical dissemination of Census 2001 results Revamped website User enquiries service Broadening coverage of smaller businesses through inclusion of income tax data in business register Beginnings of provincial level economic statistics through municipal references for business register Statistical Support and Informatics

-38- Improvements for the current and next three years Improving government service delivery and statistical accuracy through the address project Improving accessibility and coherence of statistics through the development of data management and warehousing systems Understanding user needs through more frequent user consultations especially in provinces Better reflection of employment in medium-sized enterprises by drawing samples from combined VAT and income tax frame Statistical Support and Informatics

-39- Summary Achievements and plans

-40- Top five achievements of 2003/04 1.Release and dissemination of Census 2001 results 2.Publishing economic statistics based on new business register 3.Published the first of ongoing General Household Survey 4.First staff members returned from studies in Uganda and Tanzania 5.Revamped website seeing greater usage of information Summary

-41- Top five initiatives for 2004/05 to 2007/08 1.Providing municipal data through the Census Replacement Survey 2.Ensuring an accurate CPI through direct price collections 3.Measuring the second economy through SESE and consumer survey 4.Improving accessibility and usage of statistics though data management and warehousing 5.Ensuring compliance through transforming the support functions Summary

-42- Financial information

-43- R ’ /032003/04 Appropriation Expenditure Difference Financial Information

-44- Implementing Government’s programme of action

-45- Policy Objective(1) – Comprehensive Social Security System (1.00) Programme Activity: Poverty Measures-Research to audit poverty measures used by different departments (1.04) Policy Objective(6) – Evidence Based Decision Making (6.0) Programme Activity: Create strong information base for good governance and service for the developmental state (6.01) Urgently improving our knowledge of what goes on in service delivery institutions (schools, clinics, etc) (6.03) Policy Objective (9) – Develop an integrated cluster strategy to intervene in the second economy incorporating existing initiatives that are currently unco-ordinated Programme Activity: Immediately launch research into economic activities in Second Economy communities at the same time as it implements the Cabinet decision on a comprehensive household survey and allocation of addresses to all households – time frame of implementation to be brought forward from 2006 (9.20) Government’s programme of action

-46- Implementation of plan of action Poverty measures GHS, Census and CRS all provide poverty information Impending report on poverty lines and profiles Evidence-based decision making NSS programme Building of statistical capacity in national departments Working with Presidency and Depts of Education, Transport, Agriculture, Science and Tech, Social Development, Home Affairs, Health and various provinces and local authorities Development index framework for municipalities Economic activities in second economy; Comprehensive household survey; Allocation of addresses to all households Second economy measured through: LFS; SESE (2005 and 2008) and Consumer Survey in 2008 Census Replacement Survey – 2006 Address project (with other agencies)

-47- Stats SA and the Statistics Council

-48- The Statistics Act, Act No. 06 of 1999 Purpose of advancing –Planning –Production –Analysis –Documentation –Storage –Dissemination … of official and other statistics and

-49- Providing for –Statistician-General as head of Statistics South Africa –The Statistics Council –The Minister –Duties for Minister, SG and Statistics Council –Relationship among them

-50- Misunderstanding between Stats SA and the Statistics Council Statistics Council has raised concerns that their advice has not been heeded by Stats SA –True in some instances! Stats SA maintains that Council role is only advisory Efforts to define relationship started in 2001

-51- Section 13 of powers and duties of the Council 1) The Council must advise the Minister, the Statistician-General or an organ of state which produces statistics with regard to— a) matters referred to the Council by the Minister, the Statistician-General or that organ of state; b) any matter regarding the collection, processing, analysis, documentation, storage and dissemination of statistics, including the taking of a population census, which should, in the opinion of the Council, be studied or undertaken;

-52- Section 13 of powers and duties of the Council c) the elimination of unnecessary overlapping or duplication with regard to the collection or publication of statistics by organs of state; d) any matter the Council considers necessary or expedient for achieving the purpose of this Act; e) the general appropriateness to the country’s needs of the services provided by Statistics South Africa.

The Council must promote and safeguard— a) official statistics; b) the co-ordination of statistical activities; and c) an environment which is supportive of the collection, production, dissemination and use of official statistics. Section 13 of powers and duties of the Council

-54- 3) The Council must furnish the Minister and Statistician-General with an annual report in respect of its activities, including its advice to the Minister and Statistician-General and the outcome of that advice, during the year in question, and the Minister must as soon as possible table that report in Parliament. Section 13 of powers and duties of the Council

-55- 4)The Council may issue public statements on any matter relating to its functions in terms of this Act, but only after consultation with the organ of state, business or other organisation involved, if any, in the matter in question. Section 13 of powers and duties of the Council

-56- 5)The Statistician-General must provide the Council with such secretarial and clerical assistance as is necessary for the effective performance of the functions of the Council. Section 13 of powers and duties of the Council

-57- International practice

-58- The UN Handbook of Statistical Organization says that Council –can be used for the defense of the statistical agency –can assume the role of guardian of fundamental values –is the ultimate guarantor that, within existing resources, the statistical programme as defined by the Chief Statistician –is the interlocutor a minister might choose if he/she wishes to have the professional opinion of the chief statistician validated –is the body a minister could turn to for advice and succession management –proceedings would constitute a venue for registering opinions about the output of the statistical agency

-59- The Australian Bureau of Statistics Act of 1975 Functions of the Council are to advise the Minister and the Australian Statistician in relation to: –the improvement, extension and coordination of statistical services –annual and longer term priorities and programs of work –any other matters relating generally to those statistical services

-60- The Framework for National Statistics of the UK –The main function of the Statistics Commission is to give independent, reliable and relevant advice on National Statistics to Ministers

-61- The Framework for National Statistics of the UK In conducting its work programme it will: –Improve quality and relevance of National Statistics –Improve public confidence in National Statistics –Operate efficiently by taking account of compliance costs –Co-ordinate with government regarding secure effective communication channels with stakeholders –Advise Ministers on the effectiveness of administrative (devolution) arrangements –Submit an annual report to the Minister for National Statistics

-62- The Canadian framework –Their explicit mandate is to advise the Chief Statistician about broad policies and priorities. Dr Fellegi : “Many countries have some version of such a body. Their role, method of appointment, and accountability vary. They share the common purpose of providing high-level policy guidance to the statistical system and of serving as yet another protection against politicization.”

-63- Uganda Bureau of Statistics –Board of Directors is the overall governing body –Executive Director responsible for day-to- day functions

-64- Stats SA ’ s posiotion

-65- Stats SA ’ s perspective and recommendations –The role of the Statistics Council advisory –Consultancy to Stats SA Stats SA will not hire in its service any member of the Statistics Council as a consultant –Use of Stats SA data solely for the purpose of the agreed work to be performed

-66- Stats SA ’ s perspective and recommendations –Term of the Statistics Council call for nominations without any further delays –Meetings agenda will need to be discussed with Stats SA –Secretariat Stats SA will provide two staff members –Communication Through the SG Or with officials delegated by the SG

-67- Presentation to Portfolio Committee on Finance Thank you 6 October 2004