Machiel Lamers

Potential ICIS contribution WP600: Integrated Assessment Tools

Integration Integrating research(ers) Integrating perspectives of actors Integrating concepts, models Integrating results Recommendations

WP 6: Preliminary overview Task 1: Integrated GIS databaseNERSC Task 2: Integrated participatory approach for coordination of activitiesFEEM/CMCC Task 3: Uncertainty dialoguesICIS Task 4: Qualitative System Analysis ICIS Task 5: Integrated Scenario AnalysisICIS Task 6: Aggregated results and recommendations for policy makersNERSC/ICIS

Societal randomness inexactness lack of observations/ measurements practically immeasurable reducible ignorance indeterminacy Natural randomness Value diversity Behavioural variability conflicting evidence measurable uncertainty structural uncertainty Technological surprise irreducible ignorance uncertainty due to variability uncertainty due to limited knowledge TYPOLOGY OF SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY (van Asselt, 2000)

Crossing Domains Man and wellbeing Nature and Environment Economy and welfare wellbeing and welfare man and environment and economy

Quantitative models and indicators: measure, estimate, calculate, monitor Structural interface: agenda setting, visualisation, communication Conceptual model: analysis, strategy development, strategy evaluation 3 Levels of QSA

Integrated scenario analysis Integrate scenario results from various sectorial studies, economic, environmental and social impact studies, and risk assessments Analyse implications from different perspectives, and different normative standards

Forecasting and Backcasting Looking Forward What if... ? Looking Backward How could... ?