EMERGENCY RESPONSE SPECIALIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER FORT WORTH, TX Decision Support Services (DSS) Initiative Mark Wiley

Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Roadmap Shift From Product-Focused Service to Interpretation and Consultation (Decision Support Services-DSS) Communicate On-Demand, Reliable, Quantified and Comprehensible Forecast Confidence Information Improve Usefulness of Products and Services for Decision Making Develop the Emergency Response Specialist (ERS) Function to Enable DSS for Rapidly Evolving, High-Impact Weather Partner With Entities Across the Weather Enterprise to Improve Communication and Coordination for High- Impact Events

Incorporating Weather Into Daily Situational Awareness –We’re Looking At This Event Around 5 Days From Now… Customized Weather Information That Can Be Used To Their Advantage In Emergency Response –Hold Your Generator Trucks Here For 30 Extra Minutes So They Won’t Be Driving Into Thunderstorms Weather Plays An Integral Role Prior To, During, And After Events; Including Recovery Operations –All Of These Temporary Shelters Need To Be Secured Before The Onset Of 50mph Winds Tomorrow Elements of Building a Weather Ready Nation

Southern Region At Glance 47 offices in 10 Southern states and Puerto Rico Support them: Operationally Administratively Logistically

What the ROC does… Assist our local offices Inform NWS and NOAA leadership about SR support to events and impacts Provide DSS to our State, Federal and Regional Partners ROC NWS HQ SR Offices SRH Partners

Some of the ROC’s Partners FEMA Region 6 FEMA Region 4 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Region 4 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Transportation Security Administration (TSA) NOAA Office of Restoration and Response (OR&R) FEMA/EPA REGION MAP Texas State Operations Center (Due to 13 WFOs/3 RFCs that cover the state)

What are Decision Support Services? Decision – What Decisions Are Being Made? Support – Where Are Decisions Being Made? Services – When/How Do They Need Info?

Two Key Concepts 1.Interacting Consistently with Partners … Not Just Showing Up For Events 2.Integrating the Weather Component (Intelligence) Into our Partner’s Operational Structure

In Order To Provide Weather Service, the NWS Must Provide Information: –On Their Timeline –With Useful Graphics And Text –Using Their Systems (If Possible) GIS Viewers WebEoc/HSIN Collaboration Tools –And In Every Aspect Of Their Operations (NOT OURS!!) Weather Experts Decisions

ROC Must Provide Consistent Message County Parish State Regional National The ROC Does NOT Make Forecasts in the Traditional Sense

Drought Monitor April 28, 2015 Sept 13, 2011

Response vs Preparedness You can’t just show up on “game day….” Our Focus Must be on Preparedness

River Flooding Players/Terminology Controlled vs. Uncontrolled Spillway Pool Elevation Flood Control Pool Conservation Pool Water Tops Lake Texoma Spillway

Communicating Rainfall Forecasts/Impacts In this situation, axis of heavy rainfall from south-central TX into south-central OK in the 3-5 day timeframe Decision maker looks at hydrograph below and instinctively thinks, “Cool, the rainfall will not have an impact on the river” I then tell the decision maker that’s incorrect, there’s only 12 hours (or is 18 or 24 or 48 hours) of rainfall that goes into the river forecast

Communicating Uncertainty Everybody knows it ain’t making landfall here!!

Ongoing MS River Flood Success

EMERGENCY RESPONSE SPECIALIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER FORT WORTH, TX Decision Support Services (DSS) Initiative Mark Wiley