Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW) WAQS Workplan and Modeling Update University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Ramboll-Environ (Environ) September 23, 2015 WAQS/IWDW Technical Committee Meeting

2 Summary Modeling Update – Winter O3 Sensitivity Results and Wiki – MOVES2014 Sensitivity Results and Wiki – Simulation 2011a CAMx Source Apportionment – Simulation 2011b CAMx MPE Next Steps

3 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Objective: Evaluate the impacts of meteorology and emissions adjustments on simulating high wintertime O 3 Design – Base11a: 3SAQS 2011 Base version A – Base11a_WinterO3: WRF Winter Meteorology – Base11a_WinterO3_OG_Emis: add 10x HCHO, 2x VOC, 0.5x NOx – Base11a_WinterO3_OG_Emis_Layers: add no layer collapsing in layers 1-6 – Simulate February-March 2011

4 Winter O 3 Sensitivities CAMx Sensitivity Results Base11a_WinterO3 – CAMx winter O 3 predictions not sensitive to the met/CAMx adjustments alone – Less mixing = higher NOx concentrations = lower O 3 concentrations Base11a_WinterO3_OG_Emis – O3/NOx/VOC sensitivity in areas of O&G activity Base11a_WinterO3_OG_Emis_Layers – Small changes relative to the emissions sensitivity

5 Winter O 3 Sensitivities CAMx Sensitivity Results: AQS Hourly O3 COUTWY The Q-Q plots highlight the response of the model in simulating air quality at the different monitoring networks to the sensitivities. At the upper end of the observed concentration range, the simulated O3 at the AQS sites in CO and UT responded favorably to the emissions and layer sensitivities; the O3 concentrations at the WY AQS sites did not show as drastic a change as the other states.

6 Winter O 3 Sensitivities CAMx Sensitivity Results: AQS Hourly NO2 COUTWY The NO2 concentrations at the AQS sites in all three states were more responsive to the meteorology changes than either the chemistry or layers sensitivities.

7 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results Rangely, CO – Rio Blanco County – Piceance Basin* – Oil production site – AQS O 3 and NO 2 * Air quality conditions here are more like Uintah Basin sites than other Piceance Basin sites

8 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results: Rangely, Colorado February 2011 Hourly AQS NO 2 Hourly AQS O 3

9 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results: Rangely, Colorado High O 3 episode mid-month Significant NO 2 response to the emissions sensitivity Nighttime O 3 under- predictions from WRF sensitivity Emission sensitivity produces higher simulated O 3 CAMx

10 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results Rifle, CO – Garfield County – Piceance Basin – Gas production site – AQS O 3 – Garfield County VOC

11 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results: Rifle, Colorado O3O3 VOCHCHO

12 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results: Rifle, Colorado Low observed O 3 Simulated VOC increases in response to the sensitivity O 3 performance improves with WRF sensitivity, degrades with emissions sensitivity Highlights the problem with a brute-force emissions change CAMx

13 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results Myton, UT – Duchesne County – Uintah Basin – Oil production site – AQS O 3 and NO 2

14 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results: Myton, Utah February 2011 Hourly AQS NO 2 Hourly AQS O 3

15 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Results: Myton, Utah High O 3 episode mid-month Average NO 2 performance improves with emissions sensitivity Winter WRF squelches mixing = too much NOx = low O 3 Higher simulated O 3 during high observation periods = negative O 3 bias reduced CAMx

16 Winter O 3 Sensitivities Summary Despite a lot of work and analysis, more to be done In general, the meteorology and emissions sensitivities produced the best results at the Uintah Basin sites, relative to the other O&G basins None of the sensitivity configurations were particularly effective at improving the O3 model performance in the Upper Green or Piceance Basins. Wiki for Additional Results and Discussion: ozone-aq-modeling-results

17 MOVES2014 Sensitivity Objective: Evaluate the impacts of MOVES2014a onroad mobile emissions on simulated air quality Design – Sensitivity off of simulation Base11a – Replace only the onroad mobile emissions (MOVES201b) with MOVES2014a – Simulate January and July 2011

18 MOVES2014 Sensitivity January AQS Carbon Monoxide MOVES2014 results in lower winter CO than MOVES2010b CO UTWY 4-km

19 MOVES2014 Sensitivity July AQS Carbon Monoxide MOVES2014 also results in lower summer CO than MOVES2010b CO UTWY 4-km

20 MOVES2014 Sensitivity January AQS NO2 MOVES2014 results are more mixed for NO2 Mostly decreases in UT and WY Some increases in CO at lower concentrations CO UTWY 4-km

21 MOVES2014 Sensitivity July AQS NO2 Summertime NO2 increases in CO and WY Average decrease across domain, but some periods/locations see increases in NOx CO UTWY 4-km

22 Jan Jul MOVES2014 Sensitivity AQS and CASTNET MDA8 O3 COUTWY

23 Jan Jul MOVES2014 Sensitivity IMPROVE and CSN Total PM2.5 COUTWY

24 MOVES 2014 Sensitivity Summary Fairly large emissions changes from MOVES2010b to MOVES2014, reflected in CAMx NO2 and CO performance MOVES update does not result in major changes in simulated O3 and total PM2.5 Wiki for additional results and discussion: moves2014-sensitivity-modeling-results

2011 Geographic Source Apportionment 2011a Emissions – Running now 21 Source Regions 5 Source Categories – Natural (Bio, Lx, SS, WBD) – 3 Fires (WF, Rx, Ag) – Remainder Anthropogenic Ozone/APCA 36/12 km PSAT/PM 36 km only (new) O3, PM, Vis and Dep Contribution CSAPR-type Analysis RHR Impaired vs. W20% Days Grid cell definition of 17 States, Mex, Can, EUSA, Off- Shore

Geographic SA Results Annual Average PM2.5 – with Fires

Geographic SA Results Annual Average PM2.5 – No Fires

Geographic SA Results Annual Max 24-hour PM2.5 – with Fires

Geographic SA Results Annual Max 24-hour PM2.5 – No Fires

Geographic SA Results Colorado Anthropogenic Emissions Contributions to 4 th Highest MDA8 O3

Geographic SA Results Colorado Anthropogenic Emissions Contributions to Annual Maximum MDA8 O3

Geographic SA Results Colorado Anthropogenic Emissions Contributions to Annual Maximum MDA8 O3 >= 70 ppb

33 WAQS Simulation Base11b Objective: Improve the Western U.S regional modeling platform with insights gained from the evaluation of 3SAQS simulation Base11a Design – Winter configuration for December 15, 2010 – March 2011 (WRF Winter and CAMx Snow Albedo/Chem) – MOZART BC’s with a dust and sea salt set to zero – MOVES2014a onroad mobile emissions – NEI2011v6.2 (2011v2 platform) – 0.5x RWC emissions – 3SAQS Phase II O&G emissions – PMDETAIL 2011 version B fires

34 WAQS Simulation Base11b Summary of Phase II O&G Unchanged from Phase I – All permitted (point), Paradox and Raton Basins – Wyoming survey-based emissions – Condensate tank EI in D-J, Piceance, and N. San Juan Addition of Williston and Great Plains Basins Fracing emissions added to the D-J, Piceance, Uinta, North San Juan, and South San Juan basins Uinta Basin tribal emissions estimates based on EPA Tribal MNSR data – Artificial lift engines, condensate tanks, heaters, oil tanks, pneumatic pumps, condensate truck loading

35 WAQS Simulation Base11b Emissions Results DRAFT DO NOT CITE

36 WAQS Simulation Base11b Emissions Results DRAFT DO NOT CITE

37 WAQS Simulation Base11b Emissions Results DRAFT DO NOT CITE

38 WAQS Simulation Base11b Emissions Results: NOx DRAFT DO NOT CITE

39 WAQS Simulation Base11b Emissions Results: VOC DRAFT DO NOT CITE

40 WAQS Simulation Base11b Emissions Results: Relative Differences DRAFT DO NOT CITE

41 WAQS Simulation Base11b Emissions Summary Onroad: Colorado and Wyoming increases, decreases in Utah Fires: VOC and SO 2 increase, decreases in PM 2.5 RWC: 50% decrease DRAFT DO NOT CITE

42 3SAQS Base 2011a MPE 2-slide summary of 2011a MPE Summer O 3 OK Too little winter O 3 Too much NO 2 All AQS and CASTNet sites 4-km domain Myton, UT MDA8 Colorado AQS NO 2

43 3SAQS Base 2011a MPE High seasonal PM 2.5 bias PM performance issues with all species Wet deposition too low IMPROVE Total PM 2.5 CSN Total PM 2.5

44 WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain AQS MDA8 for Base11b is within performance goals in all months Domain-wide, Base11a has lower NMB in most months Outside of Jan-Mar Base11b has higher O 3, on average, than Base11a. DRAFT DO NOT CITE

45 WAQS Simulation Base11b MDA8 Ozone Performance: All CASTNet sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CNET MDA8 for Base11b is within performance goals in all months Domain-wide, Base11b has lower NMB in most months Performance for Base11a and Base11b comparable for months other than February and March.

46 WAQS Simulation Base11b Hourly NO2 Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE High NO2 biases is reduced in Base11b at AQS sites across the 4-km domain NO2 is still overestimated in most months

47 WAQS Simulation Base11b Winter O3 Performance: AQS MDA8 Ozone DRAFT DO NOT CITE The WRF winter configuration and O&G inventory updates did not improve high winter O3 simulation Basin-specific emissions improvements are needed Myton, UT Boulder, WY

48 WAQS Simulation Base11b Daily Max Total PM2.5 Performance: All sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE Total PM2.5 is lower in simulation Base11b, leading to improvement in overestimates seen in Base11a. Zeroing the dust boundary conditions reduce the total PM2.5 in all months. CSNIMPROVE

49 WAQS Simulation Base11b Daily Max Total PM2.5 Performance: CSN sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE Winter OC at urban CSN sites reduced in Base11b, leading to improvement over Base11a; model still over estimates OC. Summer dust (Other) reductions improve overall CSN performance. B11a B11b B11a B11b WinterSummer

50 WAQS Simulation Base11b Daily Max Total PM2.5 Performance: IMPROVE sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE Dust at rural IMPROVE sites also reduced in Base11b, leading to improvement over Base11a Aerosol nitrate underestimated in Base11b B11aB11bB11a B11b WinterSummer

51 Next Steps Complete MOVES sensitivity documentation on Wiki Recommendations for future winter modeling work 2011b MPE – Wet deposition, visibility, and NH3 analysis – Ozone aloft – Draft MPE report CMAQ 2011b 36/12/4km in process now – Add to MPE report 2011b Platform release in November Future year simulation