Quiz 1. State two differences between anomalistic psychology and parapsychology. (2 marks) 2. State two differences between science and pseudoscience. (2 marks) 3. Name the technique that is a test of one type of ESP. (1 mark) 4. For the technique you named in (3) state 3 methodological problems with it. (3 marks)

Coincidence and probability

Have you any experiences of coincidences?

Blackmore (1997) questionnaire The ten statements. 1. There is someone called Jack in my family 2. I have a scar on my left knee 3. Last night I dreamed of someone I haven't seen for many years 4. I travel regularly in a white car 5. I once broke my arm 6. My back is giving me pain at the moment 7. I am one of three children 8. I own a CD or tape of Handel's Water Music 9. I have a cat 10. I have been to France in the past year

Imagine that you stop the first person you come to in the street and you ask this person questions; estimate how many of the ten statements would be true for this person. 1.There is someone called Jack in my family. 2.I have a scar on my left knee. 3.Last night I dreamed of someone I haven’t seen for many years. 4.I travel regularly in a white car. 5.I once broke my arm. 6.My back is giving me pain at the moment. 7.I am one of three children. 8.I own a CD of Handel’s Water Music. 9.I have a cat. 10.I have been to France in the past year.

Can you fill out your age, sex and whether or not you believe in extrasensory perception (e.g. telepathy or clairvoyance).

Table to show mean and standard deviation for how many statements are true for self and estimates of how many are true for imaginary stranger MeanStandard deviation True for self Estimates of true for stranger

Evaluation and Discussion Read the results and discussion of Blackmore (1997) study (taken from the original paper). What do the findings show? What evaluation points can you raise from the study.

How can we account for coincidence occurring? Article available on psych 205. Worth a read for additional information Personality factors: Falk (1989) Paranormal believers: see patterns between random associations, rather than using explanations based on probability or coincidence. Non paranormal believers: events occur coincidentally and explain them in relation to probability

How can we account for coincidence occurring? Diaconis and Mosteller (1989) The law of truly large numbers with a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen’ A hidden cause trigger memory and associations Multiple end points Just as impressed with close matches as well as exact matches

Is it logical to predict that behaviours in the paranormal are worse at estimating probabilities of coincidence. What do you think? Use evidence Blackmore and Troscianko (1985) Musch and Ehrenberg (2002)

Exam question: mind-map Most people have several dreams each night, and a small number of these dreams come true a week or so later. Former American president, Abraham Lincoln, is believed to have dreamt of his assassination, two weeks before it happened. Some people interpret dreams coming true as evidence for the paranormal. However, others assume that probability or coincidence can explain this anomalous experience. Explain why some people see dreams which later come true as evidence for the paranormal, whereas other people do not. Use your knowledge of probability judgements and/or coincidence in your answer. (10 marks)