Theory of change: ‘Description of a sequence of events expected to lead to a particular desired outcome’, Rick Davies For whom? Defined by whom? Significant for whom? LONG-TERM, LASTING CHANGES Impact CONTEXTUAL DRIVERS Socio-economic, political, Technological factors Existing policies, practices, beliefs Actors, networks in research, policy and practice Capacity of target groups to respond Receptiveness of context Organizations, resources, systems, skills Scaling up/out of changes in knowledge, attitude, skills , practices, policies through actor networks etc. MEDIUM TERM CHANGES Sphere of indirect influence – policy shapers, knowledge networks, planners, practitioners, stakeholder groups Changes in e.g. practices , policies, allocations SHORT-TERM CHANGES Sphere of direct influence – partners, collaborators, stakeholders immediate programme target groups Changes in e.g. knowledge, attitudes , skills, relationships Theory of Change (ToC)-based approach to M&E, impact assessment and communications. A theory of change is the cause-and-effect logic that links research activities to the desired changes in the actors that a project or program wishes to. Monitoring and evaluation of implementation can test and refine the road map, while communications helps in reaching the destination by helping to bring about change. The value of testing and refining the model/road map is that it challenges pre-conceptions, assists reflection and catalyses staff to frequently ask themselves: ‘Are we going in the right direction? Are we doing the right thing to achieve the changes we want to see?’ What else needs to be happening to support the changes we wish to see?’ Key things to remember: the ToC is not literal, it represents the perspectives of those who put it together, and so are only partial. Differences in viewpoint are important to acknowledge – implementing teams will have different views to designers – shouldn’t try to merge ToCs but use them to guide discussions, something might have been missed. Should be revised in the light of experience and M&E Sphere of control Programme strategy: Activities, stakeholder engagement; outputs What needs to be happening to support this change? Used by main actor / stakeholder groups Outputs = products + comms + incentives + networks Isabel Vogel, 25.06.12

CGIAR, Water and Food Challenge Fund, http://monitoring. cpwf

Roads and development in Eastern DRC Theory of Change, DFID DRC Diagram – should be meaningful, can be a network map or flow diagram, but should aim to be clear for others to grasp how you see this change process working.