Beyond 2011 The future for population statistics? (Introduction to options and consultation)

Outline The Beyond 2011 Programme Context Why look beyond 2011? Aims & timeline Statistical options development User consultation Wider engagement strategy

Context Census – every 10 years Population statistics  Social conditions  Housing  Uses: Resource allocation Service planning and delivery: local use, hospitals, commercial use Policy development, monitoring and review EU regulations and duty to report to Parliament small areas + multivariate combinations

Beyond 2011 Why look beyond 2011? Rapidly changing society Evolving user requirements New opportunities – SRSA (2007) Traditional census difficulties International trends Exploring new options for the future provision of population and socio-demographic statistics

International Context Source: United Nations

Statistical Options Development Administrative data-based options –Aggregate model –Record Level model –Intermediate model Census options –Traditional census – long form to everyone –Short-form/Long form census –Rolling census –Short form census and continuous survey Survey options –Address register + survey –Continuous survey

CENSUS Existing admin sou rc es Population Data Socio demographic Attribute Data Coverage Assessment incl. under & over-coverage - by survey and admin data? Socio demographic Survey(s) SOURCESFRAMEDATA ESTIMATION OUTPUTS Admin Source Population estimates Address Register Household Communal Establishments Adjusting for missing data and error Adjusting for non response bias in survey (or sources) Surveys to fill gaps Commercial sources? Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for population data & surveys All National to Small Area BEYOND 2011 – Overview of Statistical Options Admin Source Comm Source increasing later? Attribute estimates Population distribution provides weighting for attributes Interactional Analysis Eg TTWA Socio demographic SECURE ENVIRONMENT Longitudinal data Household structure etc ?? Quality measurement

Beyond 2011 – Options Development May 2011 Late 2011 Autumn 2011 End 2011 June long list of options USER CONSULTATION REFINED EVALUATION CRITERIA INITIAL EVALUATION CRITERIA short list of options 2011 CENSUS OUTPUTS recommended option(s) FINAL EVALUATION CRITERIA Early 2012 Late 2013 AGGREGATE MODELS ASSESSMENT RECORD LEVEL MODELS ASSESSMENT ROLLING CENSUS & OTHER OPTION ASSESSMENT PUBLIC CONSULTATION

User Consultation Autumn 2011 Consultation document and questionnaire Workshops London21 October (RSS) Leeds 3 November Cardiff 8 November London14 November

Wider Engagement Strategy Co-operation with devolved administrations Public acceptability - public consultation 2013 Legal issues Political issues