"The Iranian Challenge: Diplomatic Alternatives and Beyond" Questionnaire Conclusions Round Table February 7, 2011 The 11 th Herzliya Conference Research:

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Presentation transcript:

"The Iranian Challenge: Diplomatic Alternatives and Beyond" Questionnaire Conclusions Round Table February 7, 2011 The 11 th Herzliya Conference Research: Dr. Shmuel Bar- Director of Studies, IPS Ms. Rachel Machtiger-Senior Research Fellow, IPS Research assistant: Mr. Gilad Skutelsky

Can the current sanctions bring about a halt of the Iranian nuclear program, before it reaches fruition? February 2011 Median=2; Average= 1.83; Mode=2; Standard Deviation=0.92; Total Respondants-24 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1

Will increased ("biting") sanctions be capable of halting the Iranian Nuclear program? February 2011 Median=2; Average= 2.29; Mode=1; Standard Deviation=1.12; Total Respondants-24 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1

Do the current sanctions encourage the "Green Revolution" in Iran? February 2011 Median=2; Average= 2.33; Mode=2; Standard Deviation=1.14; Total Respondants-24 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1

Are the current sanctions coalescing Iranian public behind the existing leadership? February 2011 Median=2; Average= 2.08; Mode=2; Standard Deviation=0.88; Total Respondants-24 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1

Can military action eliminate or substantially delay the Iranian nuclear program? February 2011 Median=4; Average= 3.48; Mode=4; Standard Deviation=0.92; Total Respondants-23 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1

What is the scope of the delay that Israeli or American military action might cause? February 2011

Iranian reaction to a military action February 2011 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1 Action IsraeliAction Non Israeli

Iranian reaction to a military action February 2011 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1 Action IsraeliAction Non Israeli

How should Israel respond to a nuclear Iran? February 2011

Can American Assurances/Cold War Mechanisms prevent Further Nuclearization in the ME? February 2011 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1 Median=2; Average= 1.91; Mode=2; Standard Deviation=0.81; Total Respondants-22

From the point of breakout by Iran - how long would it take for additional nuclear state to appear in the Middle East? February 2011

Which country will go nuclear after Iran? February 2011

What will Iran’s Nuclear Posture be? February 2011

Is Iran likely to use nuclear weapons? February 2011 Absolutely Yes=5Yes=4Undecided=3No=2Absolutely No=1