NOAA’s response strategy to the Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations Greg Mandt NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology 01 Feb Jan-07 DRAFT 1

2 Outline Purpose Issue Background & Discussion Alternatives Coordination and Views Output Recommendation

3 Purpose Inform the NEP about the HIWRG and NSB reports - Solicit NEP feedback on proposed strategy to formulate a NOAA response to satisfy request for a final briefing at the Fall 07 SAB –e.g., Constraints on the response?

4 Issue NOAA SAB chartered the Hurricane Intensity Working Group (HIRWG) to recommend how can NOAA further improve and advance hurricane intensity forecasting NOAA Research Council tasked W/OST with preparing a response to the recommendations in the HIRWG and related proposals

5 Background & Discussion HIWRG issued final reports Jun06- –Majority report – 29 recomendations –Minority report – 7 recommendations –NOAA offices submitted comments on the draft HIWRG reports but NOAA has no formal response yet National Science Board (NSB) report Nov06 Hurricane Warning: The Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative – –NSF Ratification expected soon (10Feb07) –NSB briefed NOAA SAB –Proposes creation of multi-agency National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI) to implement general recommendations –Proposes an additional annual investment of ~$300M in hurricane science and research –Provides a keystone recommendation, three implementation recommendations, 16 prioritized investments in four categories and other guidance

6 Proposed Response Strategy Evaluate the recommendations in the various NOAA plans, identify gaps, and issue a NOAA plan considering th HIRWG, NSB and OFCM reports - OST organized working team – –Team has representation from the various interested programs (LFW, EMP, STI) and LOs (NWS, NHC, NCEP, OAR, AOML/HRD, ESRL; NESDIS pending) –Team contains all but ocean concerns (NOS postponed participation) Water and Weather Hurricane and Related Inundation (HI) cross-cutting theme plan is starting point - –addresses many (but not all) HIRWG recommendations –HI plan provides comprehensive programmatic alternatives addressing many of the HIRWG issues –developed in coordination with LOs: OAR, NWS, NOS, NESDIS CEO, EMP, W+W’s LFW, Hydrology, Tsunami and STI programs –Not all alternatives in HI plan were adopted in final POPs submitted to PA&E –PA&E evaluated alternatives –PDM coming shortly; Team will evaluate PPBES and other internal alternatives against known gaps and emerging organizational and intergovernmental thrusts –Assumes additional resources and redirection are an option Followed by OFCM/JAG/Tropical Cyclone Research report (soon to be released) along with other plans and requirement documents

7 High-Level HIRWG Majority Report Recommendations and W&W Response (pending PDM) HWRF model enhancements (including data assimilation & ensembles) Coupled ocean-atmosphere model with appropriate physics  Accelerate achievement of 1 km model resolution Field studies to improve and evaluate models Utilize radar for modeling  Evaluate observing strategies  Upper ocean observations Improved operations-research collaboration on modeling Joint Hurricane Testbed and Developmental Testbed Center Improve usefulness of forecasts through multidisciplinary research, including social science  Develop and test reduced and statistical models with operational data  Data archival system to make data sets available to research community  Limit how Saffir-Simpson scale is used Develop a more complete suite of information = Fully or Partially Addressed in Program Plan  = Included in Above Core  = Not Addressed

8 Alternatives Status Quo is a scattering of plans addressing hurricane intensity forecasting and research- –Pro: each office/planning activity can state its particular vision –Con: lack of coherence; resource conflict; less coordination –Risk: High failure probability –Fiscal ramifications: Potential duplication of effort Proposed Alternative: Produce unified NOAA Response Action Plan- –Pro: coherent and unifying; far-reaching; high-visibility; end-to-end; consistent with PPBES framework; metrics; responsive to operational requirements; may reduce duplication –Con: compromises will be required –Risk: TBD –Fiscal ramifications: may require additional resources and potential capability modification; farther reaching than PPBES temporally

9 Coordination & NEP/Council Views Coordination with: –NWS, OAR –PPBES/W+W, STI, LFW, CEO (later) NEP/Council Views TBD: –NEP –CFO Council (required for any recommendation that costs money) –Other Relevant Council(s)

10 Output Provide response strategy to HIRWG and NSB reports for briefing at the Fall07 SAB meeting Potential Unified NOAA Hurricane Intensity Action Plan –Addresses and assesses HIWRG, NSB, and OFCM reports –Consolidates and guides relevant cross-NOAA activities

11 Recommendation Endorse the proposed strategy and team composition