2005 OBP Biennial Peer Review Platform Analysis Overview Bob Wallace, NREL Integrated Biorefinery Project Date: November 16, 2005

Overview Budget National Laboratory Partners NREL (lead) ORNL PNNL INL ANL Subcontracts Bioindustry Transition Modeling /The Peterson Group Back-casting Ethanol industry TBD Biorefine / John Marano Partners Provide a clear path forward for research and analysis by identifying and overcoming the technical, R&D, and market barriers towards the commercialization of a bioindustry. Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Objective

Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Life Cycle Assessment Strategic Analysis Platforms Analysis Tools & Methods Development Other Studies: Emerging Technologies RBAEF Biorefine Market, Risk, Policy FeedstocksBiochemicalProductsThermochemical R&D Platforms

Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Life Cycle Assessment Strategic Analysis Platforms Analysis Tools & Methods Development Other Studies: Emerging Technologies RBAEF Biorefine Market, Risk, Policy FeedstocksBiochemicalProductsThermochemical R&D Platforms

Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Bioindustry Analysis Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Life Cycle Assessment Strategic Analysis Platforms Analysis Integrated Biorefinery Platform Tools & Methods Development Other Studies: Emerging Technologies RBAEF Biorefine Market, Risk, Policy FeedstocksBiochemicalProductsThermochemical R&D Platforms

Working Together Program Direction R&D Platform Analysis Strategic Analysis Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC.

Working Together Program Direction R&D Platform Analysis Strategic Analysis Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC.

Working Together Program Direction R&D Platform Analysis Strategic Analysis Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC. Strategic analysis drives the R&D through Platform Analysis and in turn, Platform Analysis drives Program Direction through Strategic Analysis.

Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term

Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term Linkage to existing biorefineries

Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term Linkage to existing biorefineries 1 st Generation Biorefineries

Strategy and Pathways – Intermediate to Long Term Linkage to existing biorefineries 1 st Generation Biorefineries Mature vision of biorefineries

Targets Integrated Biorefinery Platform Targets Biorefinery Modeling (Task 1.1) Estimated Completion Date: June, 2006 Individual models nearing completion Back Casting current Dry Mill Industry (Task 1.2) Completion Date: September, 2006 Subcontract will be in place by January, 2006 Bioindustry Transition Modeling (Task 2) Estimated Completion Date: December, 2007 Subcontract will be in place by December, 2005

Bioindustry Transition Model Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D and Analysis platforms

Bioindustry Transition Model Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D and Analysis platforms Market driven model with components analyzing distribution, end use and oil industry drivers

Bioindustry Transition Model Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D and Analysis platforms Market driven model with components analyzing distribution, end use and oil industry drivers Prototype model completed for RBAEF project using STELLA Dynamic Modeling Software

biomass program Validating The Model ‘Back-cast’ the historical growth of the existing corn ethanol industry to find the major contributing factors to it’s successful development Use real data from the current ethanol industry to build the assumptions for the future Opportunity to refine our understanding of investor behavior Task 1.2 Building the Future by Investigating the Past

biomass program Feedstock Logistics INL and ORNL developed strategies for emerging large- scale feedstock collection and delivery infrastructure Utilizes outputs from IBSAL and POLYSIS Sophisticated modeling of an evolving feedstock collection and distribution system that builds off existing infrastructure Feedstock Logistics OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Transitional Applications for Corn Dry Mill evolution through technology innovation and process integration Identify cost of introduction Task 1.1 Interim Milestone completed March, 2005 biomass program 1 st Generation Biorefineries

Lignocellulose in a Corn Ethanol Plant Transition to lignocellulose for ethanol and fuels production Multiple feedstock collection and delivery infrastructure Production of biofuels, CHP Selective Thermal Processing leading to Consolidated Bioprocessing Lignocellulosic Biorefineries

biomass program Fuel Distribution and Use Liquid Transportation-Fuels Market Penetration Vehicle fleet turnover dynamics Ethanol market penetration effects on flexible vehicle demand Ethanol distribution infrastructure

biomass program The Oil Industry Effect of constrained gasoline production capacity due to the lack of new refinery capacity over the past thirty years 20 yr oil price projections based on U.S. DOE EIA forecasts Relationships between cost of crude oil and cost of gasoline Hubbert’s Peak effect What can we learn from the current transportation fuels industry?

Modeling Platform Input from all Platform Analysis areas & Industry Prototype created in RBAEF Project User Friendly STELLA by ISEE Systems Construct/Simulate/Communicate Dynamic Systems Modeling

Future Work The Integrated Biorefinery Platform Bioindustry Transition Modeling Biorefinery Modeling will be competed in FY06 Back-Casting the current ethanol will be completed in FY06 Bioindustry Transition Model (BTM) will be completed near end of FY07 The following (BTM) tasks should be completed by the end of FY06 Fuel and End Use (5 & 6) Back-casting Current industry (1) Feedstock Supply Infrastructure (2)

biomass program Summary Multiple DOE Laboratories involved in Project Consolidates outputs from Sugar, Thermochemical, Feedstocks and Products platform analyses into a market driven decision making model Providing the vision to a fully developed bio-liquid transportation fuels industry. Industry Driven Gov’t Support Academia Working Together