Contents Spatial levels Decision making Options for decision making on climate risk and opportunities Time horizons in decision making Role of different decision makers

Managing The Full Range of Variability FOREFITED OPPORTUNITY CRISIS HARDSHIP

Spatial level Decision byCRM OPTIONSOPPORTUNITIES (good events) PlotFamilyChoice of variety, fertilizer dosage, irrigation Family / farm FamilyCrop, enterprise choice CommunityFamilies/ local institutions Use of CPRs, watersheds Region (Sub district) Govt. banks, and other institutions Subsidies, crop insurance, Govt. Schemes DistrictGovt. banks, and other institutions StateGovt. banks, and other institutions, Policy

Diversification and Risk Low Correlation + Diversification = Reduced Risk A & B independent random normal C t = 0.5 A t B t SD A = 1.03, SD B = 0.96, SD C = 0.51

Diversification and Risk More can be better

Diversification and Risk Avinashi, TN Optimal crop mix: –groundnut-sorghum –cotton Maximize CE income Obj. fxn.CottonG’ndnutmeanSD risk-neutral100%0% mod. risk averse32%68%

Crop mixes with Negative correlation in yield – Non overlapping critical periods

Family wise Cattle population in 6 villages.

Family wise sheep and Goat income- 6 villages

CPRs as the safety net

Crop mixes with Negative correlation in yield – Non overlapping critical periods

Highest number of animals not with the largest of farms