Forecasting systems WMO Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme David Burridge

Strike probability map for hurricane Katrina. After crossing Florida the tracks of the hurricane were predicted with a high degree of consistency. Hurricane Katrina

“No warning to the population was raised and no measure taken to reduce the impact of the disaster, even though the meteorological office in Algiers has announced two days before that a strong storm will arrive in Algeria on Friday night …” Algerian Flood November 2001 : 737 Dead

2003 European heat wave may have killed 20,000 Timely and accurate forecast Poor emergency preparedness

THORPEX - A WMO Sponsored Research Programme designed to  To provide the research underpinning the WMO strategy to reduce by 50 per cent over the decade the number of fatalities caused by meteorological, hydrological and climate related natural disasters compared with the ten-year average fatalities of  To increase the effectiveness of advanced warnings of high impact weather globally.  To enable governments, societies and economic sectors to realise fully the benefit of weather and climate related information in critical decision-making.  To demonstrate ways to increase cooperation and collaboration between National Meteorological Services to deliver the benefits of new global earth observations, advanced communications, and new global forecasting systems to all societies.

Global Interactive Forecast System using the THORPEX INTERACTIVE GLOBAL GRAND ENSEMBLE (TIGGE) – real-time research including Key GEO tasks Phase 1 – Ensembles of global forecasts accessible through one of three Centres (CMA, ECMWF & NCAR) FUNDED Phase 2 – Distributed archives providing regional products

Lothar - T+42 hour Rerun of operational EPS) 14 EPS members with greater intensity storms than verification

LONG-RANGE DESERT DUST TRANSPORT  Predicted dust vs. lidar dust  Saharan dust storm, 2001  TOMS global composite aerosol index Global process with local origins  Dust driven by the atmosphere Monitoring Hazardous effects satellites lidars sunphotometers aircraft surface observatories  Human health: Asthma, lung problems  Human and animal health: for example, valley fever spores carried by dust  Aviation: Low visibility and mechanical risk  Ecology: Saharan dust-borne herbicides affect Caribbean coral mortality Predicting  Dust storm in China: Beijing, 17 April 2006  NASA MODIS Aqua  Routine model forecast  Beijing  Beijing

Ozone and aerosols are essential climate and weather variables & present multi-hazards Beijing Roof CMA March DUST POLLUTION FIRES Global Aerosol Optical Depth OZONE HOLE & UV

Interactions between space and time scales of tropical convection: Linking THORPEX and WCRP Diurnal Cycle Seasonal Cycle Synoptic waves WWBs El Nino Modulates activity e.g. extratropical effects, continentality Timer? Modulates activity? Excites ocean Kelvin Waves Modulates Upscale organisation? MJO MJO Suppressed Phase? Mesoscale systems km 100’s km1000’s km 10,000’s km Hours Days WeeksMonths

Aerosols Chemistry Numerical forecasts IMPACTS Water Resources Public Health Food security Multi-disciplinary research Socio-Economy Decision Makers Early Warning Systems, Advice, … WEATHER & CLIMATE PREDICTION & ITS IMPACTS Short and Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual Decadal Climate Change Models & Observations

Key issues to support multi-hazard prediction  The science  Encourage the NWP & Climate communities to work more closely together to develop similar “looking” numerical products  Development of distributed systems for the provision of global and regional numerical forecasts from the short to seasonal time- ranges  Increased support for multi-disciplinary research to translate forecasts into impact prediction  Deliver the warnings