THE ALTA INVITATIONAL The “New Normal”: The realities/forces that are driving the “New Normal” Presented by: John C. Deane Principal May 6, 2010
2 Is there a “New Normal” for our industry, or not? How is “New Normal” defined? A paradigm shift? Something that forces major changes in our business models? Other? Why is the search for the “New Normal” important? Post Mortem for what contributed to the recent financial crisis Guide for our future strategic and tactical decisions The “New Normal”: Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry
3 Additional Notes New Normal or Not: Major Changes & Lots of Fog, but undecided as to Paradigm Shift For Some: Threat of Being CDLA-Like Slower Growth Likely Tighter Credit Markets Probable Nimbleness Necessary Continuing Consolidation but Different (still over capacity) Must Remain Relevant to Customers Importance of New & Improved Products Important of the Use of Technology as a Competitive Advantage
4 More Notes Much More Planning Required Account Issues of Major Importance Regulatory issues of Major Importance Declining Talent Pool For Focus on Risk Profile Pace of Change/Business Change Greater than Ever Competitive Environment is Changing May 2010The Alta Group -
5 How would we describe the realities/forces that are driving our industry/businesses into a “New Normal”? Materially slower growth Ongoing tightness in the credit markets (government’s share of wallet) Higher interest rates Diminished U.S. position; replaced by “a surging Asia” Much more regulation De-leveraged balance sheets The “New Normal”: Realities/Forces Driving Our Industry & Businesses 1 Source: examples from Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services article, The New Normal: Fundamental Changes and The New Face of Finance; January 21, 2010
6 Are the previous realities/forces relevant to your business? What realities/forces would you add for the “New Normal”? Are these realities/forces different for: Bank Affiliates Captives Independents International lessors & lenders The “New Normal”: Realities/Forces Driving Our Industry & Businesses
7 Have elements of your business model changes in the context of the “New Normal”? Customer facing elements (e.g., value proposition) Pricing Capital markets Delivery systems/go to market strategy Cost management Investor (both debt and equity) elements Growth expectations Risk profile Have these changes enhanced or diminished the soundness of your business model? The “New Normal”: Key Business Model Changes