Hemispheric Issues William Harnett U.S. Environmental Protection Agency December 1, 2004

Strengths of LRTAP Convention 1.Worked towards a shared scientific understanding of the nature of a problem 2.Worked collaboratively to develop solutions 3.Ensure compliance with the protocols

Transport to Arctic Mercury, POPs, and other pollutants are carried into the Arctic, and trapped by circulation patterns Air Transport Pathways Arctic Air Mass In Summer and Winter [Crane & Galasso, 1999]

Transport to Europe The U.S. exports ozone precursors, mercury, and other pollutants to the North Atlantic. The impact on attainment of European policy objectives may be significant. Days predicted to exceed the EU ozone standard that would not exceed the standard in the absence of North American emissions. [Li et al., 2001]

Dust, metals, and other pollutants are transported from North Africa across the Atlantic to the Caribbean and the Southeastern U.S. Saharan Dust over Miami = 10 – 100  g/m 3 24 hr PM NAAQS = 65  g/m 3 PM  g/m 3 PM 10 [Prospero 1999] [Prospero 1999] Pathogens in Saharan Dust have been linked to coral decline in the Caribbean. [Shinn et al 2000] Transport from Africa

Transport from Asia Dust from Chinese Deserts, fossil fuel emissions, and other pollutants travel across the Pacific and impact the Western U.S. [Aerosol Index, NASA TOMS] World Energy Use [EIA, 2002] Emissions in Asia are expected to grow with further economic development, offsetting emissions decreases in the United States.

Rising Ozone Levels in Northern Hemisphere Europe Mace Head, Ireland (Dick Derwent, ICAP workshop, 2004)

Rising Ozone Levels in Northern Hemisphere Asia Japan (341 sites avg.) (Oliver Wild, ICAP workshop, 2004)

Rising Ozone Levels in Northern Hemisphere USA Lassen N. P., CA (Dan Jaffe, ICAP workshop, 2004)

Rising emissions from developing countries lengthen the O 3 pollution season in the United States 2030 A Base Case From Fiore, 2002

Conclusions 1.LRTAP countries are both an importers and exporters of pollutants. 2.There is convincing evidence of trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic & trans- Eurasian transport of air pollutants 3.International transport including hemispheric transport contributes to some of today’s health and environmental quality problems. 4.It is likely that international transport will affect the achievement of core objectives or standards in LRTAP countries in the future. Decreasing emissions in North America and Europe Increasing development in Asia and elsewhere in Northern Hemisphere Decreasing health standards levels (ozone and particulate matter) in North America and Europe 5.It is time to develop a shared scientific understanding of the nature of the hemispheric transport problem