Modeling and trend Analysis Submitted by JOMY JOSEPH

Modeling:  One of the popular models used for technology forecasting is cross- impact matrices.  This method explains the interaction between events that could possibly trigger a technological change.

Fig 1: cross-impact matrices.

(Fig 1) This matrix examines the interactions among three events E 1, E 2, E 3, shown as rows of the matrix. These events have associated with them probabilities P 1, P 2, and P 3 that they will happen in years Y 1, Y 2, and Y 3, with Y 1 < Y 2 < Y 3. The three events also form the columns of the matrix in chronological order from left to right. Each cell of the matrix indicates an interaction between the events in the corresponding row and column. The impacts are shown in terms of mode, strength, and time lag. For example, if E 1 occurs, its mode of impact is to enhance the likelihood of E 2 by 10 percent, and the impact is felt immediately, without a time lag.

Trend Analysis:  The term " trend analysis " refers to the concept of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information.  Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives an idea of what will happen in the future.  Trend analysis is a mathematical technique that uses historical results to predict future outcome.  An aspect of technical analysis that tries to predict the future movement based on past data.

Performing trend Analysis:  One of the first requirements for any good trend analysis is recognition that the real world can more often be described as an exponential, rather than a linear, process.  This stems from the fact that often the process of technological innovation starts slowly as ideas are formulated and theory is developed.  Later, the growth accelerates, and, as maturity sets in, growth changes to virtual linear change.

Fig 2: Trend Analysis.